US pays the price of Pakistan's help
Friday, 27 July 2007
Edward Luce
US intelligence agencies warned America recently that it had moved back into a "heightened threat environment", to a large extent because al-Qaeda had found a safe haven in Pakistan with which to rebuild its leadership.
Yet there are few signs the Bush administration is planning to modify its supportive stance towards Pakistan's military regime - an approach, critics say, that has inadvertently helped provide al-Qaeda with the breathing space it needs.
Senior administration officials say they trust Pervez Musharraf's pledge to hold free and fair elections later this year, even though Pakistan's military ruler has a solid record of altering the constitution to suit his needs.
Gen Musharraf's decision to abide by the Pakistan Supreme Court's decision to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhary, the chief justice whom Gen Musharraf had removed in March, sparking popular consternation, was greeted in Washington as evidence of his good intent.
"President Musharraf is a strong ally in the war on terror," said a state department spokesman. "He is committed to a process of democratic change in Pakistan, including, most importantly to us, the conducting of free and fair and transparent elections which is something that is in the interest of everyone."
But few outside the Bush administration believe that Gen Musharraf will refrain from meddling in the forthcoming elections unless Washington itself insists that he do so.
Instead, the Bush administration has stepped up pressure on Gen Musharraf to crack down on terrorist safe havens within Pakistan, particularly since the collapse last week of the peace accord between Islamabad and the North Waziristan tribal agency which borders Afghanistan.
Critics of the Bush administration say Pakistan-US relations are back into a familiar phase in which Washington is happy to hand out large sums of aid to the regime - $10bn (€7.2bn, £4.8bn) since 2001 according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, of which 90 per cent has been for non-civilian uses - as long as there is evidence that it is combating terrorists.
The Bush administration said it would provide an additional $750m over the next five years in aid for the combustible tribal agencies, including $300m to help build a frontier corps to patrol the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The US has provided just $13m in assistance to Pakistan's election commission.
"There is a fundamental disconnect between the administration's short-term goal of getting the maximum possible co-operation from Gen Musharraf in the war on terror and its long-term goal of seeing Pakistan democratise," says George Perkovich at the Carnegie Foundation in Washington.
"As always, Musharraf's best hope of staying in power is to keep the Bush administration happy."
That tendency may now be compounded by the fact that Gen Musharraf is rapidly running out of domestic allies, having fallen out with the six-party group of Islamist parties following his order earlier this month to storm the Red Mosque in Islamabad, a radical stronghold. Almost 200 people have died in violence since.
Many are urging Gen Musharraf to strike a deal with Benazir Bhutto, the exiled former prime minister whose secular Pakistan Progressive party remains the largest political organisation in the country. Ms Bhutto continues to insist that Gen Musharraf remove his uniform before she agrees to any political deal that would involve her return to Pakistan. The Bush administration has remained silent.
"The Bush administration pays lip service to the idea of democracy in Pakistan but it is plain that they do not think Benazir Bhutto can control the army, so it never goes beyond that," says Frederic Grare, a French scholar. "There is absolutely no evidence that recent events in Pakistan have caused Washington to reappraise its stance."
But there are also signs of friction between Washington and Islamabad. Last week and again on Sunday senior US officials said they would not rule out military strikes on al-Qaeda camps within Pakistan if they received "actionable" intelligence. Pakistan's foreign ministry promptly issued a statement calling the remarks "irresponsible and dangerous".
Recently, Kurshid Kasuri, Pakistan's foreign minister, told CNN: "There are some people who are talking irresponsibly of attacks in the tribal areas of Pakistan by the United States. Let the United States provide us with actionable intelligence, and you will find that Pakistan will never be lacking."
For almost six years since the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US that level of co-operation has withstood all kinds of stress.
"Up until now the US has been happy with Pakistan if it provides it with short-term tactical help - overflight permission, visas for intelligence operatives and so forth," says Husain Haqqani, an exiled Pakistani former diplomat and journalist now teaching in Boston. "I am sorry to say that it might take another big terrorist attack on the US for Washington to reappraise its uncritical support for Pakistan's military regime."
Under syndication arrangement
with FE
US intelligence agencies warned America recently that it had moved back into a "heightened threat environment", to a large extent because al-Qaeda had found a safe haven in Pakistan with which to rebuild its leadership.
Yet there are few signs the Bush administration is planning to modify its supportive stance towards Pakistan's military regime - an approach, critics say, that has inadvertently helped provide al-Qaeda with the breathing space it needs.
Senior administration officials say they trust Pervez Musharraf's pledge to hold free and fair elections later this year, even though Pakistan's military ruler has a solid record of altering the constitution to suit his needs.
Gen Musharraf's decision to abide by the Pakistan Supreme Court's decision to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhary, the chief justice whom Gen Musharraf had removed in March, sparking popular consternation, was greeted in Washington as evidence of his good intent.
"President Musharraf is a strong ally in the war on terror," said a state department spokesman. "He is committed to a process of democratic change in Pakistan, including, most importantly to us, the conducting of free and fair and transparent elections which is something that is in the interest of everyone."
But few outside the Bush administration believe that Gen Musharraf will refrain from meddling in the forthcoming elections unless Washington itself insists that he do so.
Instead, the Bush administration has stepped up pressure on Gen Musharraf to crack down on terrorist safe havens within Pakistan, particularly since the collapse last week of the peace accord between Islamabad and the North Waziristan tribal agency which borders Afghanistan.
Critics of the Bush administration say Pakistan-US relations are back into a familiar phase in which Washington is happy to hand out large sums of aid to the regime - $10bn (€7.2bn, £4.8bn) since 2001 according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, of which 90 per cent has been for non-civilian uses - as long as there is evidence that it is combating terrorists.
The Bush administration said it would provide an additional $750m over the next five years in aid for the combustible tribal agencies, including $300m to help build a frontier corps to patrol the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The US has provided just $13m in assistance to Pakistan's election commission.
"There is a fundamental disconnect between the administration's short-term goal of getting the maximum possible co-operation from Gen Musharraf in the war on terror and its long-term goal of seeing Pakistan democratise," says George Perkovich at the Carnegie Foundation in Washington.
"As always, Musharraf's best hope of staying in power is to keep the Bush administration happy."
That tendency may now be compounded by the fact that Gen Musharraf is rapidly running out of domestic allies, having fallen out with the six-party group of Islamist parties following his order earlier this month to storm the Red Mosque in Islamabad, a radical stronghold. Almost 200 people have died in violence since.
Many are urging Gen Musharraf to strike a deal with Benazir Bhutto, the exiled former prime minister whose secular Pakistan Progressive party remains the largest political organisation in the country. Ms Bhutto continues to insist that Gen Musharraf remove his uniform before she agrees to any political deal that would involve her return to Pakistan. The Bush administration has remained silent.
"The Bush administration pays lip service to the idea of democracy in Pakistan but it is plain that they do not think Benazir Bhutto can control the army, so it never goes beyond that," says Frederic Grare, a French scholar. "There is absolutely no evidence that recent events in Pakistan have caused Washington to reappraise its stance."
But there are also signs of friction between Washington and Islamabad. Last week and again on Sunday senior US officials said they would not rule out military strikes on al-Qaeda camps within Pakistan if they received "actionable" intelligence. Pakistan's foreign ministry promptly issued a statement calling the remarks "irresponsible and dangerous".
Recently, Kurshid Kasuri, Pakistan's foreign minister, told CNN: "There are some people who are talking irresponsibly of attacks in the tribal areas of Pakistan by the United States. Let the United States provide us with actionable intelligence, and you will find that Pakistan will never be lacking."
For almost six years since the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US that level of co-operation has withstood all kinds of stress.
"Up until now the US has been happy with Pakistan if it provides it with short-term tactical help - overflight permission, visas for intelligence operatives and so forth," says Husain Haqqani, an exiled Pakistani former diplomat and journalist now teaching in Boston. "I am sorry to say that it might take another big terrorist attack on the US for Washington to reappraise its uncritical support for Pakistan's military regime."
Under syndication arrangement
with FE