US politics: Trump tsunami hits Republican Party

Until May, Jeb Bush appeared set to become the unanimous choice of the Republicans for the 2016 US presidential election. He wanted to carve out for himself a candidature independent of his illustrious lineage so that he would not appear incapable of independently securing the Republican ticket. He was also aware that his elder brother's legacy would be fraught with problems in the eventual fight against the Democratic candidate in the race for the White House.
Therefore he even went to the extent of telling reporters in an event in May that his brother's decision to invade Iraq was a "mistake." In fact, he was led to make that conclusion in the glare of the media after reporters had made it obvious that the majority of Americans now believe that President Bush's decision to invade Iraq was a hugely costly error both in terms of money spent and lives of men and women in uniform lost. In the last week of May when Jeb Bush was led into the "Iraq trap", one major newspaper quipped: "On the Iraq war, Jeb Bush had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week." He nevertheless ended that fateful week by stating that "he would not have gone into Iraq" to try to end the controversy.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since May that have not just upset Jeb Bush's set road to the Republican ticket but a few others who had expected to fight against him. A political Tsunami in the shape of Donald Trump has overtaken the Republican campaign. In May, Jeb Bush was being called the "presumptive Republican presidential candidate." He is now, in the pack of nearly 15, significantly behind Donald Trump. According to the latest poll, Donald Trump is the leader for the Republican ticket with 24 per cent support and Jeb Bush at 13 per cent and the others that in May were expected to challenge him, in disarray with their campaign and far behind in the polls.
In fact, Donald Trump is so far not just leading the Republican pack but also shaping the trend of the Republican race as well as the agenda. In doing so, he is placating the extreme right and the anti-Washington supporters in the Republican Party and winning their support and applause and in the process upsetting the campaign strategies of his opponents, among them that of Jeb Bush and also one that the Party would like to take eventually. In a race in which votes of women, Latinos and immigrants will eventually have a major impact in determining the winner, Donald Trump has gone out of his way to insult each of these groups in a manner that would make little sense if the objective is to win the White House and not just the Republican party's ticket.
Donald Trump has realised that his views and performance in the August 06 debate of the 10 Republican candidates did not go well with the national audience or with the majority of the Republicans. He also realised that nevertheless his views offensive as they were with many have touched a deep chord with a significant section of Republican supporters who are fed up with "politically correct" views in politics and eager to support someone like Donald Trump with extreme views on immigration, Latinos, foreign affairs and fundamentally anti-Washington.
Donald Trump has thus championed these views more aggressively since August 06 that has cheered his supporters more to stand behind him. Thus instead of his support waning after his disastrous August 06 debate as was expected by many political analysts, it has increased somewhat keeping him in the lead significantly.  Importantly, his lead has led the other candidates to pick up some of his views to fight his support among the extreme right section in the party for without doing so, they feel that Donald Trump may take the Republican ticket away.
Thus Jeb Bush has been forced to change his views on Iraq. He has recently said that his brother was right in invading Iraq and blamed President Obama for withdrawing the combat troops that has led to the current situation in Iraq and the rise of ISIS. He changed his stance on Iraq while more aware now than in May that majority of Americans view the war as a mistake and further since his critical view about the war in May, facts have now been established that the decision to withdraw combat troops in 2011 was one that George W Bush had signed while in office. A major candidate, Senator Ted Cruz has recently changed his stance on citizenship based on birth as provided by the 14th amendment after Donald Trump had said he would - a stance that would go very badly with Latinos and recent immigrants. Other candidates, although aware that Donald Trump's views on immigration, women and Latinos would be disastrous in the eventual fight against the Democratic candidate, have so far said nothing fearing challenging Donald Trump on these issues would encourage his supporters to back him more and ensure for him the Party's ticket.
Donald Trump has thus set the Republican Party on a course that would be disastrous eventually unless the party can find a way to stop him. In addition to his disastrous views on the major domestic issues for the next presidential election, Donald Trump's views on foreign policy issues are equally problematic. He has said he would build a wall on USA-Mexico border and make Mexico pay for it. He would bomb ISIS, send combat troops to annihilate ISIS and make Saudi Arabia pay for it. Donald Trump is simply saying things that appeal to the right-wing  section of his party that is enough to upset the chances of others in the party - views that have little rational basis and in a presidential election, which would in all likelihood give the White House to the Democrats in a silver platter.  
The Donald Trump factor has flabbergasted the Republican Party except those backing the real estate billionaire like a political tsunami. Thus it is up to the Republican Party not only to deny Donald Trump the ticket but also to ensure that he does not become a third-party candidate as he said he would if the ticket is denied to him. If Donald Trump becomes a third-party candidate, the Republicans' chance of making it to the White House would be equally bleak as with him as their candidate. Even if he is neither a party nor a third-party candidate, he has already contaminated the Republican Party enough to put it at a handicap in the 2016 election.
The writer is a retired Ambassador.
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