Vision 2021: Ten challenges

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) organised a dialogue on the 'National Election 2007: Civil Society Initiative for Accountable Development' on March 20, 2006 in Dhaka. The dialogue prepared 'Vision 2021' in view of the golden jubilee of Independence in 2021. Subsequently, before the election in 2008 the Awami League, the present ruling party, adopted the Vision 2021 and declared it in its election manifesto. There may be a lot of questions or arguments about the mission or initiatives taken by the ruling party to reach the goals set under the Vision 2021. But certainly it is appreciable that the journey has started. The main goal of the vision is to upgrade Bangladesh to a middle income country (MIC) by eradicating poverty.
At present, India, China, Brazil, etc. are in the category of middle income countries. Bangladesh aims to join the club of MICs in 2021 marking the 50 years of its independence. As per the World Bank record on Bangladesh, the per capita gross national income (GNI) as per the atlas method was $ 900 in 2013 and it put the country in the lower income category. As per records of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the per capita income stood at $1,190 in 2014 and it puts Bangladesh in the lower middle income group. Bangladesh is apparently doing well and moving towards the MIC goal. Today many national and foreign experts and institutions forecast Bangladesh as a future leader or rank it among the next eleven in view of its consistent gross domestic product (GDP) growth of more than 6.0 per cent over the last 10 years. So, the Vision 2021 is very time-befitting.
Then, what does the vision 2021 contains? The Vision 2021 contains eight aspirations: (1) democracy and effective parliament, (2) political framework, decentralisation of power and people's participation, (3) good governance through establishment of the rule of law and avoiding political partisanship, (4) transformation of political culture, (5) a society free from corruption, (6) empowerment and equal rights for women, (7) economic development and initiative: (a) meeting basic needs, (b)  population and labour force, (c ) alleviation of poverty, (d) food and nutrition, (e) healthcare centres, (f) education, (g) industry, (h) energy security, (i) infrastructural development, (j) housing, (k) environment, (l) water resources, and (8) Bangladesh in the global arena: ( a)  achievements of liberation, (b) culture, and (c) foreign policy.
The first challenge is to set appropriate goals and targets. The goal is clear: to become a middle income country by raising per capita income to $2,000 by 2021. The question is: Will the achievement of MIC status help remove poverty completely? If the distribution of national income is not balanced, the MIC status cannot eradicate poverty completely. The increase in per capita income will not trickle down to the people, unless some social indicators like income balance, education for all, reduction of poverty, human rights, women's empowerment, good governance, access to technology for all etc. improve reasonably and remarkably.
The government has formulated the "Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010-2011: Making Vision 2021 A Reality", a strategic plan in line with the aspirations under the Vision 2021. The perspective plan articulates the roadmap for accelerated growth and lays down broad approaches for eradication of poverty, inequality and human deprivation. Some of the key targets to be achieved by 2021 in addition to raising the per capita income to about $ 2,000 are: GDP growth rate of 10 per cent; CPI inflation at 5.2 per cent; gross domestic investment at 38 per cent (against 24 per cent in 2010) of GDP with gross national savings standing at 39 per cent (against 30 per cent in 2010), total government revenue at 20 per cent (in 2010 it was 10 per cent);  unemployment rate to be cut to 15 per cent (against 30 per cent  in 2010); rate of poverty reduction to 13.5 per cent (against 31.5 per cent in 2010); industrial sector's contribution to GDP at 37 per cent, service sector 48 per cent and agriculture 15 per cent (against 28 per cent, 53 per cent and 19 per cent respectively in 2010); taking tax-GDP ratio to 14.6 per cent in 2015 and 20 per cent in 2021. In addition to the above economic indicators, the plan has addressed improvement of social indicators like development of human resources, education, health services, urban and rural developments, freedom of expression, equality of citizens irrespective of race, religion and creed, and equality of opportunities, human rights, distribution of national income, environment sustainability, women's empowerment, employment and institutional foundation etc. Each aspiration has a specific target to be achieved in two phases by 2015 and by 2021. The implementation strategy should be designed in consideration of the SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat) matrix. All programmes and activities of the government should be focused on achieving Vision 2021.
The second challenge will be to tailor the implementation strategy and process. The perspective plan, the summary strategic plan, also states that specific strategies would be developed over the two five-year plans-the sixth and seventh five-year plans. In accordance with the priorities and targets under the aspirations, the sixth five-year plan adopted strategies with challenges focused on the target to be achieved within 2015 under the midterm economic framework. After reviewing achievements for the first phase by 2015, the 7th five-year plan is to be designed with specific strategies and targets set under the Vision 2021. The implementation process could be: (1) The nation should be made aware about importance of the vision, (2) the Vision 2021 implementation coordinating committee should play specific roles and responsibilities, (3) The committee should review the status of SWOT and prepare Action Plan or Mission 2021 for each aspiration, (4) The action plan should be accommodated in the budget and policy framework including sixth and seventh five-year plans and projects and programmes as a routine job, (5) the committee should review the result periodically and adjust or modify the policy and focus the unaddressed or less-focused issues in budget, projects and programmes as routine jobs, (6) preparation of Annual Progress Report against each aspiration together with reasons for the target achieved or not achieved, and (7) the National Assembly informing the achievement and get feedback for further attainment.  
The third challenge will be ensuring rule of law. Corruption is so pervasive that it eats up about 2-3 per cent of GDP growth each year, according to the World Bank estimate. The Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) estimated that per capita income could double if the government could curb corruption. Rule of law will ensure good governance in the state and corporate sectors.
The fourth challenge will be resource mobilisation. The most effective way to boost a country's resource mobilisation is to improve its tax system. The existing tax-GDP ratio is 10 per cent. In a developed country it is more than 40 per cent.
The fifth challenge will be leadership with an ethical standard. Professional enrichment and rule of law may help ensure an ethical standard of leadership.
The sixth challenge will be to create a brand value for Bangladesh so that the youths have their confidence and engage themselves in building the nation.  
The seventh challenge is to take research and development initiatives. The research and development should be directed at product and service specialisation.
The eighth challenge is to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Rule of law, resource mobilisation and efficient leadership with an ethical standard may act as a catalyst to attract FDI.
The ninth challenge will be adoption of technology. Both industry and agriculture are technology-driven. Technology can help increase productivity and reduce cost of production.
The tenth challenge will be the best use of human resources. Quality education and different training programmes can make our people a strong work force both at home and abroad.
The writer is an Associate Member of ICAB and Head of Finance of Venture Investment Partners Bangladesh Ltd. (VIPB).
roy_dipok@yahoo.com