Volatility of rice market on horizon!

As if things weren't hard enough for the average consumer in the retail market for staples, there are indications that the prices of rice may go up further. This comes against the backdrop of imposition of 20 per cent duty on export of rice by India. Indeed, according to a report published in this newspaper, India putting up an export quota will surely have ramifications for Bangladesh. The unsettling news comes on the heel of levying of 40 per cent duty by that country on onion export. With the Bangladesh government set to procure some 500,000 tonnes of rice and the private sector a far larger quantity this fiscal from international markets, it remains to be seen what effect this new round of export control will have for markets here.
Private sector importers reportedly have made its purchases from foreign markets already. Public procurement of parboiled rice apparently is only one-third complete and that's where the problem lies. Unfortunately, whether private or public procurement, rice prices have been volatile in the international market for some time now, which essentially has made procurement particularly tougher. One must understand that rice feeds more than half the world, but there are indications that the availability of this staple food may be less than required. That would explain why countries like India are taking preemptive steps to curtail export. According to international media, "yields are falling and crops failing as a result of floods, droughts and severe weather caused by climate crisis."
Indeed, tight supplies of rice are envisaged across Asian countries as concerns mount over what is grown, amid drier weather. Then there has been the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative. Myanmar, the fifth-largest global rice exporter, is reportedly thinking of slapping temporary restrictions on rice exports to keep domestic market for rice cool. For instance, when India banned exports of non-basmati white rice, it reduced supplies on the global market by 20 per cent (about 10 million tonnes). With major international suppliers getting ready to put the crunch on rice availability, what are countries like Bangladesh going to do? Although the directorate general of food has stated that import controls have been eased to allow the private sector operators to bring in more rice, given current trends, it is going to be much more difficult to buy rice at current prices. Since Bangladesh buys a third of its foreign procurement from India, the question becomes trickier with export controls put in place over there.
While Boro production has seen bumper yields and currently government food stocks boast 1.6 million tonnes, will it be enough to weather the storm beyond a few months? The problem with rice of course is that it can't be grown anywhere. By nature, rice cultivation is a very water-intensive crop that is ideally grown on flooded fields. It is estimated that it requires 3,000 - 5,000 liters of water to produce 1.0 kg of rice. With drought like conditions increasing globally, it is causing harvests to fail in some of the biggest rice producing countries in the world.
Researchers in the country have not been sitting idle. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) for instance has been working on breeding alternative rice varieties, as well as "supporting farmers to produce better yields and develop locally-adapted climate-resistant farming strategies." This may very well be the trend for the future as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues straining global supply chains for cereals such as rice. Our scientists will have to come up with new varieties of rice that require fewer natural resources to produce and ones that are more resilient in the face of climatic shocks.

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