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War games muddy APEC Summit

Sunday, 9 September 2007


Antoaneta Bezlova from Beijing
China's display of economic clout and diplomatic assertiveness at the Asia Pacific leaders' forum in Sydney this week has been overshadowed by a concurrent show of power in the Bay of Bengal where the United States is leading four Asia-Pacific countries in the largest war games ever held in the region.
Analysts see the joint naval exercises, involving warships from the U.S., India, Australia, Japan and Singapore, as part of a strategic design by Washington to strengthen ties in Asia at a time when China is trying to project its growing military might. The games, dubbed Malabar 07-02, follow smaller naval exercises held by India, Japan and the U.S. in the western Pacific earlier this year.
China has watched both the exercises and the security talks that accompany them with rising unease. Beijing protested when India, Japan and the U.S. met in June with Australia for talks on a new "Quadrilateral Initiative" and demanded an official explanation.
Beijing has also attacked the agenda of the three-way security talks on Saturday among Australia, Japan and the U.S., on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, as lacking in transparency.
APEC 'member economies', include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and the U.S.
Australian Prime Minister John Howard was quick to defend the Saturday talks as an "expression of the commonality of interests that three Pacific democracies have". But to Beijing this argument sounds uncannily similar to Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe's call for the establishing of an "Asian arc of freedom and prosperity", which excludes China. On a recent visit to India, Abe described his vision of the arc as one made up of democracies across the Indian and Pacific Oceans and cited India, the U.S., Australia and Japan as components.
Yet while Beijing understands Japan's motives in seeking allies as it nervously watches its neighbour's economic and military rise, it still suspects that the ongoing re-alignment of powers in Asia is ultimately driven by the U.S.
"We are watching the rekindling of the Cold War mentality in Washington's efforts to find allies and partners while beefing up its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, East Europe and South Asia, apart from occupying Iraq indefinitely," said an opinion piece in the state-sanctioned China Daily in August.
The author Fu Mengzi -- a research fellow at the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations, argued that the U.S. is intent on energising the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in addition to building an "alliance of the willing", with an "obsession with forging military relations with non-allies".
The U.S. Japan and Australia have no formal three-way alliance agreement yet, but recent months have seen a flurry of diplomatic talks and negotiations aimed at upgrading their security arrangements.
In March Japan and Australia signed a joint security declaration, which outlined a joint strategy covering military exercises, intelligence sharing and cooperation in counter-terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
Another security agreement -- between Canberra and Washington, is expected to be announced at the end of this week's security talks on the sidelines of the APEC forum.
China's official response to what its analysts perceive as an attempt at encirclement by these three countries has been to bid for openness and try to appease their fears.
Before the start of the APEC forum, Beijing made a surprise announcement that it has decided to submit an annual report on its military spending and imports and exports of conventional arms to the United Nations. The Foreign Ministry said the decision was aimed at dismissing growing international concerns over China's rapid military build-up.
"These are two important decisions of the Chinese government in the field of military transparency," the ministry said in a statement on its website.
The pledge for more transparency comes amid vocal international concerns about China's military spending, which has been growing at a double-digit rate nearly every year since the 1990s. This year saw a 17.8 percent boost of China's military budget to about 45 billion US dollars.
Last week China's defence chief also made a powerful bid to allay regional fears. During a visit to Japan, General Cao Gangchuan said China's military build-up is geared towards self-defence.
"Those who speak of the theory of China as a military threat are ignorant of the situation and their claims are unfounded," Cao said in his public address.
The general's visit to Japan -- the first by a Chinese defence minister since 1998, marks a cautious attempt by Beijing to court the revival of bilateral relations after they turned frosty under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two sides agreed to allow a Chinese warship to visit Japan for the first time and try to set up a crisis hotline.
Beijing has also taken a cautious line in regard to U.S. attempts to woo New Delhi to play a more prominent role in the emerging Asian axis of democracies and refrained from openly criticising a controversial civilian nuclear accord signed between the two sides.
The deal, which was signed last year, enables the U.S. and other countries to supply New Delhi with nuclear technology and fuels without India having to give up its nuclear arms or sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
As a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which needs to reach a consensus on the pact to validate it, China could use its vote to block the deal. But hinting that the deal has given rise to opposition from different sides, the Foreign Ministry has remained relatively calm in its reaction.
"We have also noted that within the NSG there are different views about relaxing the restrictions on nuclear exports to India," ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a news briefing Thursday. "China believes that, with the precondition of abiding by their international responsibilities, all countries can develop cooperation in the peaceful exploration of nuclear power."
But, while courting U.S. allies in Asia, China has continued to forge closer relations with Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which includes the Central Asian republics. This summer the organisation held its second joint military manoeuvres, "Peace Mission 2007", which bolstered the increasingly military profile of this regional body.
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IPS