Weak dollar could prevent OPEC from new output hike
Monday, 1 October 2007
LONDON, Sept 30 (AFP): The weak US dollar is slashing the value of oil revenue for the biggest crude producers, leading analysts to predict that OPEC will not rush to hike output again despite tight world energy supplies.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently decided to increase its crude output by 500,000 barrels, from November 1, to help ease soaring oil prices and send a signal that the cartel cared about consumers.
OPEC, which pumps more than a third of global supplies, added that it would reassess the market situation at its next output meeting in Abu Dhabi on December 5.
"The dollar has been devalued significantly over the last few months and that has really affected the (oil) income to a number of countries," Iraqi oil minister Hussein Chahristani said earlier this month.
A weak US unit makes dollar-denominated commodities, like crude oil, cheaper for buyers with stronger currencies and therefore encourages demand. That helps to offset record high prices for oil in nominal terms on world markets.
Since OPEC's last meeting on September 11, oil prices have rocketed to record highs with New York crude smashing through 84 dollars per barrel. Prices have now surged by about 30 per cent in the past year owing to tight supplies of world energy.
But at the same time, the US dollar has slumped to a series of record lows against the European single currency.
"This decline (in the dollar) always lurks in the back of their minds," said Muhammed Ali Zainy, analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, in reference to OPEC members. "When they decide about their levels of production, they really would like to have a higher price in order to compensate the decline of the dollar," added the analyst from the influential research group based in London.
The greenback tumbled to a new all-time low of 1.4263 against the euro Friday on growing concerns over the United States economy and the prospect of lower American interest rates, dealers said.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently decided to increase its crude output by 500,000 barrels, from November 1, to help ease soaring oil prices and send a signal that the cartel cared about consumers.
OPEC, which pumps more than a third of global supplies, added that it would reassess the market situation at its next output meeting in Abu Dhabi on December 5.
"The dollar has been devalued significantly over the last few months and that has really affected the (oil) income to a number of countries," Iraqi oil minister Hussein Chahristani said earlier this month.
A weak US unit makes dollar-denominated commodities, like crude oil, cheaper for buyers with stronger currencies and therefore encourages demand. That helps to offset record high prices for oil in nominal terms on world markets.
Since OPEC's last meeting on September 11, oil prices have rocketed to record highs with New York crude smashing through 84 dollars per barrel. Prices have now surged by about 30 per cent in the past year owing to tight supplies of world energy.
But at the same time, the US dollar has slumped to a series of record lows against the European single currency.
"This decline (in the dollar) always lurks in the back of their minds," said Muhammed Ali Zainy, analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, in reference to OPEC members. "When they decide about their levels of production, they really would like to have a higher price in order to compensate the decline of the dollar," added the analyst from the influential research group based in London.
The greenback tumbled to a new all-time low of 1.4263 against the euro Friday on growing concerns over the United States economy and the prospect of lower American interest rates, dealers said.