Weakened Chinese GDP growth in 2015 feared

BEIJING, Dec 15 (Xinhua): China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow modestly next year to 7.1 per cent, but employment and inflation will remain stable, according to a central bank working paper.
"Real GDP growth will decelerate slightly to 7.1 per cent in 2015, reflecting partly the slowdown in real estate investment," said a working paper written by a group of economists of the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
China's GDP growth for 2014 is estimated at 7.4 per cent, according to the research group led by Ma Jun, chief economist of the PBOC's research bureau.
Inflation will be 2.2 per cent next year, slightly higher than this year's estimated reading of 2.0 per cent, said the paper posted on the PBOC's website.
China will see an easing fixed asset investment growth, stronger retail sales and faster export and import growth next year, said the paper.
According to their research, fixed asset investment growth will soften to 12.8 per cent next year, down from an estimated expansion of 15.5 per cent in 2014, dragged by slower investment into the real estate sector,
Retail sales growth will rise to 12.2 per cent next year from an estimated pace of 12.0 per cent this year.
Thanks to a recovery in the global economy, export growth will pick up to 6.9 per cent next year from an expected reading of 6.1 per cent this year. Meanwhile, import growth will accelerate to 5.1 per cent next year from 1.9 per cent this year.
The paper said the forecasts were made based on four factors -- GDP growth in developed economies picking up to 2.3 per cent in 2015 from an estimated pace of 1.8 per cent this year, falling global commodity prices and a stable world trade environment, China keeping continuity and stability in its monetary and fiscal policy, and a lack of large fluctuations in China's property market.