What could be the shape of Indo-Pak ties if Modi comes to power ?

As India enters the last leg of its more than a month-long national elections, matters relating to several national issues and foreign affairs - including relations with the neighbours - are coming up in the campaign. One of the major issues figuring in the electioneering is relation with Pakistan, its arch rival. What could be the shape of the New Delhi-Islamabad ties in the event Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes to power?  This is a key question that often comes for discussions with varying views, but the bottom line is Pakistan is an issue in India and vice-versa.
Some hawkish leaders belonging to the BJP or its allies are making caustic comments on the traditional rival Pakistan as these leaders have not yet reconciled themselves with the break of former Indian sub-continent. One Siv Sena leader in Maharastra said if Modi comes to power, Pakistan would be "destroyed" within six months, while another BJP leader in Bihar commented that those who oppose Modi in the polls should find their place in Pakistan. A Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader says that Pakistan must be brought back into the "Bharat Mata" fold like Crimea has come under Russia.
But Narendra modi has sought to distance himself from such extreme comments when he said that relations with the neighbours would be governed as per policy pursued by BJP government under A.B. Vajpyee's leadership. Vajpayee and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif broadly characterise a phase when efforts were made to improve the perennially bitter ties between  the two countries. However, that spirit was lost in the Kargil conflict which was clearly initiated by Sharif's chief of the army staff Gen. Pervez Musharraf. But Vajpayee's time is generally seen as friendly with the neighbours. Modi gives the impression that he would be tough with neighbours like China, Pakistan and Bangladesh in varying degrees, but also drops sufficient hints that there could be no blind hostility towards Pakistan.
But a controversy has broken out over a comment by Pakistan's interior minister Chowdhury Nisar Ali who said that the region would be destabilised in the event Narendra Modi comes to power and added that Islamabad is prepared to face any eventuality. This evoked sharp reactions from BJP, whose spokesperson termed the comment "provocative". Interestingly, the Congress, which is the bitter political foe of the BJP, has also criticised the observation of the Pakistan minister, saying it was none of his business as elections are an internal matter of India. The debate has now been played down by both sides.
Indo-Pakistan ties remain a blend of friendliness and enmity and this is the condition at the moment while the outcome of Indian elections is eagerly awaited.
It may be recalled that Prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his the then Indian counterpart Vajpayee made effective strides towards better relations and the latter undertook a bus journey from India to Pakistan as a symbolic gesture for strengthening ties with the hostile neighbour. But Nawaz Sharif realised little that his overtures for peace with India had caused anger and unhappiness in some quarters in his country, probably also within the army, which later toppled him from power. The coup occurred against the backdrop of an incursion by the Pakistan army in the Indian territory, Kargil that caused loss of lives of many soldiers on both sides. It was believed that the war was the brainchild of army chief General Musharraf, who was not on the same boat with the civilian government of Nawaz on the issue of ties with India.
The two countries have several problems including the Kashmir issue, but it is the deficit of trust and confidence that often acts as a stumbling hindrance in addressing the problems. New Delhi is harping on Islamabad's failure to punish the perpetrators of the Mumbai killing in 2008 when attackers from Pakistan, targeting some famous sites and institutions in the commercial capital of India, killed 156 people. All attackers but one lost lives in the encounters and one Ajmal Keshab, who was caught alive, was later hanged following court trial in India.
During a recent visit by Pakistan prime minister to "Azad Kashimir"- which is the Pakistan-held Kashmir - he said that ties with India can not be improved unless the Kashmir dispute is settled. Narendra Modi visited Jammu in the Indian-held Kashmir sometime ago and warned Pakistan of serious consequences unless Islamabad halts "terrorist" activities in the Kashmir region. Earlier, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also blamed Pakistan for "creating" trouble in the Kashmir area. However, all these comments from either side are seen as more ritualistic than substantial.
If Modi comes to power, he may resort to some tough talking to impress others, but would probably follow the Vajpayee policy that could be his best option. Vajpayee, who had also served as external affairs minister before becoming prime minister, is credited by most as largely successful in foreign affairs. The BJP is highlighting Vajpayee's period as prime minister during the current election campaign.  
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