What growth impetus is remains unanswered

The finance minister is confident that the country is going to attain an economic growth rate of 7.0 per cent this fiscal year. He sounded so optimistic about the economic buoyancy at a seminar held in Jahangirnagar University recently. The finance minister's optimism is however in total contrast with the bleak prospect painted by economists of all shades of opinions. What the basis of the finance minister's reckoning for the high economic performance is, he has however not divulged. When the minister discloses in the same breath that 'investment has remained largely stagnant over the past many years', one becomes all the more clueless as to how the 7.0 per cent growth target can be achieved. It is not a contention between nay-sayers and yea-sayers that is important for the nation. After 40 years of the country's independence, the more important thing is to know how this brave country is braving the turbulent waters of politics and economy at a time when countries in Europe and America, until recently more stable --both economically and politically -than other parts of the world, find themselves in deep economic trouble. So far as wealth creation is concerned, Bangladesh has reasons to be proud of its more than modest performance. Its emergence from a primarily small agrarian economy into a manufacturing one-no matter if it is overwhelmingly service-oriented - integrated with markets in the rich world is indeed a giant step. Over the past 40 years, the other spectacularly positive development that has taken place concerns the courageous ventures undertaken by uneducated -if not unlettered -young men from farming families of rural Bangladesh to work abroad. Both are outstanding success stories but not free from tears for many. How migrant workers in Malaysia and returnees from Saudi Arabia have suffered is a case in point. Agricultural scientists and researchers in particular have impressive records to their credit. By developing a wide variety of high-yielding paddies, they have made possible a green revolution here. Apart from paddies, they have successfully experimented with a number of vegetables and fruits to develop improved varieties of both local and foreign origin. Banana, plum and strawberry are just a few of them worth mentioning. Even flower cultivation on commercial basis has now made an impact on agro-economy. So, the agriculturists are now the unsung heroes of this land. Yet it should be admitted that the rural economy has not expanded the way it should have done largely because investment in agro-industries under the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) has remained pitiably low. This has restricted both the wealth creation in villages and increased economic disparities in society. The other deleterious impact is the exodus of skilled or unskilled labour forces from villages to towns and cities. Surely Bangladesh cannot overwhelmingly depend on its service sector industries. It has bright prospect for developing the SME sector. At a time when both the apparel sector and the overseas employment are encountering challenges due to the hangover of global economic meltdown triggered by American housing bubble and, of late, uncertainties in the face of Eurozone crisis, there is a further need for ensuring the country's food security and strengthening its export base. Unfortunately, the country's infrastructure development has suffered due to corruption and misplaced priorities. True, this government has remained for most part of its tenure busy urgently arranging for power generation but at a high cost. Also the expanded social security programme has pushed up the government expenditure beyond the parameter of its incomes from all sources it can count on. Unequal distribution of wealth at some point or other leads to socio-political disorder and upheaval. Some of the developments on the economic front including the capital market and banking regulation are just offshoots of such maldistribution of resources over the years. What is even more deplorable is the advantage of the government's weakness taken by local manufacturing companies of essential commodities and traders importing some of the items the former cannot produce or if they do, they do so inadequately for the country's need. Usually, when prices of rice, cooking oil and a few such commodities go up, they immediately draw attention of all. But there are other essentials like spices, soap, tooth paste and a host of other items without which civilised life becomes impossible. The soaring prices of all such items can go up outrageously high in today's Bangladesh without notice. Prices of all kinds of soap have nearly doubled within a year. This is unacceptable and people at times wonder if there is a government at all. Why the regulatory authorities can not operate is plain and simple. An unholy nexus has developed involving a section of traders and those who are supposed to keep a tab on businesses. In this country, return on business is more than on products produced by local factories and industries. This explains the reluctance to investment in industries and enterprises of small and medium sizes. However, of late, factory owners and industrialists seem to be fast catching up with the businesspeople. Unless this kind of anarchy can be controlled, Bangladesh will head for an economic and even social catastrophe. E-mail: nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com