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What next in Libya?

Tuesday, 25 October 2011


The former President and strongman of Libya for long 41 years, Moammar Gaddafi, finally met his nemesis on October 20 as he was captured and killed by his opponents in the outskirts of his home town of Sirte. Gaddafi's captors probably had the choice of catching him alive. But decided against it as a living Gaddafi would go on inspiring at least sections of his countrymen and others. So, the calculation, according to some analysts, could have been that a dead Gaddafi would cease to have any lingering influence on Libya and the rest of the world. The demise of the Libyan strongman will generally be seen as part of a series of changes that had started in the Arab world in the current year that led to the downfall of long standing one-man-led authoritarian regimes in some Arab counties such as the one of former President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. But once the triumph over dictatorial governments gets established, the inevitable arises: what next? The ills of dictatorial governments are obvious: no freedom of expression or dissent; suspension and suppression of human rights and political and civil liberties; no free election, etc. But one-man shows may produce otherwise some appreciated conditions also such as political and social stability and cohesion; relatively better economic performance and management. The fallen Gaddafi, in all fairness to him but not justifying his despotic rule and excesses, did, to a substantial extent, deliver the benefits of strong rule to Libyans. Therefore, one has to wait and see how far the National Transition Council (NTC) which has taken over can go or succeed in quickly normalising the lives of millions of Libyans from utter chaos, destruction and strife prevailing today. The next and even bigger challenge for the NTC would be presiding over conditions in Libya with utmost expertise to usher in a real democratic system of governance there. For that matter, effective institutions will need to be put in place to deliver expected services to the people in a proper and timely fashion. Having always been ruled by strongmen throughout history, this country has had no experience in either introducing a democratic system, or operating one smoothly. Effective institutions for governance, in accordance with the standard rules of the game, were not allowed developed there at all. The vast majority of Libyans may have been united for a short-lived period against Gaddafi's more than four decades of rule. But for them to remain unified and go on working for an enduring democratic order is quite another matter. They have to overcome this challenge reasonably quickly and successfully to make sense out of their very bloody civil war, culminating in the death of Muammar Gaddafi and now in the formal declaration about the victory of their 'liberation' from 'tyranny' Masood Nur Baridhara, Dhaka.