Who is next: BJP or Congress?

Mamun Rashid writes from New Delhi, India The chauffer I out-sourced through the host company was from Himachal Pradesh (province) in India. Once I became friendly with him, he didn't spend much time to tell me- this time it is going to be BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) and he claimed to be seventy-five per cent sure about this. I asked him the reasons? His reply was: Congress could not do anything to bring down the price of the essentials as well as they utterly failed to fight corruption. Many of their ministers and leaders were found engaged in corruption, he added. He thought Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, though personally an honest man could not do anything to fight corruption. Though he didn't have a clear view and explanation, the chauffer Dipal Singh seemed also dismayed at Congress government signing some deals and treaties, which were against India's interest. I got almost the opposite view, while talking to a senior editorial staff with The Times of India. The gentleman who also covered Bangladesh for a global agency in the past thought, the Muslim voters in almost ten provinces would 'call the shot'. He also thought that the 'secular India' will be an added buffer for Congress against Mr. Modi from BJP. I got almost similar views from few journalists and politicians from Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesh. However just before my return leg to Delhi, I got to meet a retired educationist. The gentleman in his late seventies was the vice chancellor of a smaller public university. He thought there is a realisation among Muslim voters that they have been all along used as a 'vote bank' only by the Indian Congress and, in return, they have got nothing. Against the 'secular India' championed by Congress, he thought there is also an emerging 'Hinduism' which is very much visible among the hardcore Indians including the youngsters and, incidentally, professionals too. This would again work as a buffer for BJP and their leader Narendra Damodardas Modi. The sixty-three years old Mr Modi, who is presiding over the state of Gujarat as chief minister for the fourth time, is known to be a controversial figure in India and may be globally too. The controversy around him attained thick ground after the 2002 Gujarat communal violence, where he was blamed by the opposition and media for insufficient action or even for condoning the communal violence against Muslims. This forced him to resign. Incidentally Modi was re-elected with resounding victory. In 2009 Indian Supreme Court constituted a special investigation team to further look into Modi's role in the 2002 Gujarat violence. Luckily, the investigation report submitted in December 2010 didn't find the Hindu nationalist leader allowing communal violence. Following the Gujarat violence the US immigration denied diplomatic visa to Modi in 2005, and also very unfortunate for the 'Hindutva' leader, it also revoked his B-1/B-2 visa too. The United Kingdom and the European Union took similar actions against the chief minister of Gujarat, also is otherwise respected for economic success of his state. During 2002-2007 Gujarat emerged as an attractive investment destination and many widely circulated newspapers thought corruption also gone down significantly under his leadership. Chief minister Modi came out with the 'vibrant Gujarat' slogan. Modi was nominated for the top post in Delhi recently by the 'National Democratic Alliance' (NDA). While Modi is very much in the limelight to get on to the post of prime minister, many felt that the BJP leader is unlikely to make the 'real entry', unless they are able to form a broader coalition with other parties. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen recently said- he didn't want Modi as the prime minister as he had not done enough to make minorities feel safe and his record in health and education development is pretty bad. On the contrary, economist Jagdish Bhagwati was impressed by 'Modieconomics'. The performance of the Congress in managing the Indian economy seems to be helping Modi in recent times. Ice is gradually melting in his favour. The UK which refused to deal with Modi for a decade following his 'actions against religious freedom', lifted its diplomatic boycott in October 2012. The European Union also followed suit in March this year. BJP president Rajnath Singh visited the US in July 2013 and requested the government to give Mr Modi the visa. Unfortunately 65 members of the parliament from Indian Congress in response wrote a letter to president Obama to maintain the 'status quo'. However few members whose names were given as signatories to the letter denied to have signing the letter and thus creating a mist around the episode. Nielson and The Economic Times just published a result of poll on the 100 corporate leaders. 74 of them wanted Modi as next prime minister against 7 who preferred Rahul Gandhi. Leading British investment analyst and the author of Goldman Sach's BRIC report Jim O'Neill found Modi 'good on economics, one of the things India desperately needs in a leader'. Many capital market analysts also thought 'Indian stock market's greatest hope is the emergence of Modi as the BJP's prime minister candidate'. Being biased towards Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi I wanted to keep my fingers crossed. But the pendulum seems to be gradually shifting towards Narendra Modi, telling us 'all that glitters is not gold'. Modi has a tough job ahead. He must come out as a respected leader, leading India from the front. Gujarat and India is not the same. Especially when India is trying to occupy a 'major seat' in the global stage. Like what we see in our home front, congress is also desperately trying to cover up. They will not keep any stones unturned to undermine Modi and continue the 'good' they have been doing. (Mamun Rashid is a banker and economic analyst. E-mail:mrashid [email protected])