Will Bangladesh give India land transit?

Narendra Modi would be undertaking his first visit to Bangladesh on June 06-07, a year after becoming the prime minister of India. Meantime, he has visited Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. There has been an apparent delay in his coming to Dhaka though India shares more with Bangladesh than the three other countries.
The delay has been for good reasons because Narendra Modi had to resolve two important bilateral issues before he could come to Dhaka - both left for his government embarrassingly unresolved by the Congress-led UPA government. These two issues are the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) and the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement. Modi's government has recently ratified the LBA. However, the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement has not yet been settled and New Delhi is still not in the position to hand over this deal to Bangladesh.
As readers would recollect, both the deals were ready to be delivered when then Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohon Singh had visited Dhaka in September 2011. He was unable to do so because at literally the 11th hour, Mamata Banarjee (MB), the Chief Minister of Paschimbanga decided to put the spanner by, first withdrawing from the Indian Prime Minister's delegation to Dhaka, and second, withdrawing her support for the Teesta and the LBA deals. There was little that New Delhi could do because MB's Trinamool Congress (TMC) at that time had the stranglehold on the fragile Congress-led UPA government. Withdrawal of TMC's support would have ensured the fall of the government in which it was a coalition partner.
Mamata Banarjee is still the Chief Minister of Paschimbanga. The TMC, however, has no more any stranglehold on the BJP-led NDA government as it did on the Congress-led UPA government. And she will be a member of Narendra Modi's delegation to Dhaka. Therefore, it should be a matter of concern why New Delhi would still hold back on the Teesta deal. In fact, there appears to be new twist in the Teesta deal. Recently India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh had said that India would hand to Bangladesh the deal "soon" for which the TMC Secretary General Partha Chatterjee had taken umbrage claiming that he should not have made a public announcement on the Teesta, as it was none of his business. Thus even a delivery of Teesta deal "soon" seems to have become uncertain.
During Manmohon Singh's visit, Dhaka had not just been deeply upset when Teesta deal was not delivered. In retaliation, it withdrew from the table the signing the additional protocol to the 1974 Bangladesh-India Trade Agreement that would have given to India the land transit. Land transit and security concerns from Bangladesh are the two interests that all Indian governments had wanted to secure from Bangladesh all these years. Before the Awami League came to power in January 2009, previous Bangladesh governments were unwilling to discuss these two issues with previous Indian governments without a quid pro quo on its interests in India, particularly related to sharing of the water of the common rivers.  
The Teesta deal at this stage looks very unlikely to be delivered to Bangladesh by Narendra Modi although the reasons for which it was not delivered during Manmohon Singh's visit in 2011 do not exist now with both MB and TMC not being the same as they were when the Congress government was ready to deliver it. Yet, going by media reports, Dhaka is getting ready to sign the additional protocol to guarantee India land transit that is its major and only negotiating card with India for gaining from India its interests, mainly the critical need of waters of the common rivers upon which Bangladesh future depends. India, ahead of Narendra Modi's visit has again offered soft loans, this time twice what it had offered under the Congress, apparently as an inducement to Bangladesh for signing the land transit deal.
Yet, there is no concern in Bangladesh's politics that its only negotiating card is being compromised. The AL government looks more than willing to do what New Delhi wants. The same Awami League government had called the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs while the Indian Prime Minister Manmohon Singh was in the city and told him that it was taking land transit off the table because of India's decision to take Teesta deal off. It is now all smiles to welcome Narendra Modi without any questions asked. The BNP, the party that has played the "India card" in the past for good and not so good reasons, is also looking the other way at the possibility of the land transit being given to India without reciprocity, eager to welcome the Indian Prime Minister as warmly as the Awami League.
It cannot, however, bear good tidings for Bangladesh that the mainstream parties are willing to let India fulfil its dreams in Bangladesh with little reciprocity, particularly on the critical issue of the country's water needs. Bangladesh today is not in great need of the 1.0 or 2.0  billion US$ soft loans India is offering because expatriates send home US$ 14 billion yearly. Then there is the bad history of India's dealings with Bangladesh. In fact, the LBA deal on the back of which Narendra Modi would be coming to Dhaka is being delivered to Bangladesh 41 years delayed, all due to India's unwillingness to stand by its commitments made at the highest level.
Narendra Modi would be visiting Dhaka when India's diplomatic efforts in Bangladesh and the nature of politics in the country have ensured that there would be no political opposition to India. Therefore, if Narendra Modi were to leave Dhaka with the land transit in his kitty and Teesta deal to be delivered "soon", then New Delhi would be taking a nation for granted that it should not if history were to guide it. There would be no reason for the people to be satisfied with the prospect of the Teesta deal being delivered "soon" when they know how long they had to wait for the LBA.
Then there is, of course, the major reason for Narendra Modi's visit to Dhaka at this time that is being missed with the AL and BNP busy to get on the right side of the Indian Prime Minister. Narendra Modi would be visiting Dhaka neither to please the AL nor the BNP. His Dhaka visit would be in pursuit of the same reasons why he had earlier visited Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, namely to contain the growing influence of China in South Asia. And ahead of the other three countries, New Delhi's major concern is with Bangladesh where Chinese influence is growing for reasons of geopolitics. Also, Bangladesh is on the verge of giving to the Chinese the contract to build the Sonadia deep seaport which is critically significant from a security point of view. And there is the Bangladesh-China defence cooperation that is also expanding to a high level for India's comfort.
India had played a major role in the independence of Bangladesh in 1971 that China had opposed. Yet today ironically, China's acceptance is unquestioned among the people and political parties of Bangladesh where India's is full of questions among the people. Therefore, if the AL-led government were to offer its only negotiating card to Narendra Modi on a silver platter without even asking for Teesta and the BNP willing to look the other way, this will mark an unbelievable change in the two mainstream political parties of Bangladesh between 2011 and present.
The writer is a former Director-General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. [email protected]