Will Kim Jong-il's death hasten reunification of the Koreas?
Saturday, 31 December 2011
North Korea lost its second generation great leader on December 17, 2011. The TV pictures showed the heartfelt lament of the citizens which proves their love for their popular leader Kim Jong-il, no matter what the world leaders termed him as. He had succeeded his father Kim Il-sung, also known as the Great Leader and the founder of North Korea, who died in July 1994.
He perpetuated a cult personality as the "dear leader", even as many of the nation's 24 million citizens lived on an average income of less than a dollar a day. Kim Jong-il ruled the country for 17 years and resisted opening up to the outside world in order to protect his regime. "The likely succession of his third son, Jong-un, threatens to trigger a dangerous period for the Korean Peninsula where 1.7 million troops from the two Koreas and the US square off every day. Jong-un's taking complete control of the helm will not take place for a while due to his young and inexperienced leadership," said, Yang Moo Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
Kim Jong-il leaves behind an economy less than 3.0 per cent the size of South Korea's and which has relied on economic handouts since the 1990's when an estimated two million people died from famine. The United Nations and the US last year increased economic sanctions imposed as a result of North Korea's nuclear weapons development activities and attacks that killed 50 South Koreans. He earned the title 'axis of evil' for his country because of his nuclear activities but his genuine love and patriotism for his country gave him courage to ignore these western and outside world pressures.
In 2009, Kim Jong-il defied threats of United Nations sanctions to test a second nuclear device and a ballistic missile, technically capable of striking Tokyo. The following year, North Korea lashed out militarily, prompting stern warnings from the US and South Korea. An international investigation blamed his regime for the March 2010 sinking of a South Korean warship and the shelling of a South Korean island killing two soldiers and two civilians. These activities convinced the world that North Korea had achieved 'stunning' advances in its uranium-enrichment programme. In 2010, he set in line his succession plan. Kim Jong-un, thought to be 28 or 29 , was first mentioned in the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) dispatches on September 28 when his appointments as General and Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the party were announced.
Before the Korean war of 1950-1953, both South and North Korea had been one nation. But it got divided into two- namely North and South Korea. North Korea was influenced and helped by the Soviet Union and South Korea the US and other western powers. During the 1980s when the Soviet Union collapsed, support from Russia and other Eastern European countries declined. North Korea started to establish close ties with China. It angered the western powers and their ally South Korea. Both the parts began to do well in terms of economic achievement, although the South proved far ahead.
But in the 1990s, North Korea witnessed a severe famine due to several poor harvests because of adverse weather conditions and some wrong agriculture policies. Hundreds and thousands of North Koreans died in the famine. Kim Jong-il refrained from enforcing the usual tight restriction on mobility, permitting starving people to travel within the country to find food. Kim hoped to avert a sudden loss of popular support. It was a pragmatic decision.
For three decades, he exercised absolute power, rarely traveling aboard or meeting foreign leaders and often going for long periods when his domestic public appearances were not mentioned in the state-run media. Kim Jong-il was a cinema buff whose personal library included tens of thousands of western movies. Obsessed with improving the country's film output, his agents kidnapped South Korea's leading director Shin Sang-ok, and the director's actress wife, Choi- Eun-hi. They subsequently escaped with tape recordings of conversation they had with Kim Jong-il.
In 1991, Kim Jong-il became Commander in Chief of North Korea's powerful armed force. Three years later when Kim Sung-il died at 82, most outsiders predicted the imminent collapse of North Korea as the nation had lost its venerable founding father. A few years later, its powerful alliances had evaporated with the fall of the Soviet Union bloc and China's move toward a market based system. The economy was on the rocks and energy and food were in short supply. Kim Jong-il inherited a genius for playing the weak hand and by keeping the major powers nervous. He managed to open a dialogue and arrange a summit level meeting with the then South Korean president in 2000.
Now the political analysts ask whether the two Koreas are going to be reunified as Kim Jong-il has passed away. If it could be reunited, the poverty- stricken people of North Korea would be benefited. Again, another group suggests that the reunification of two the Koreas will create economic imbalance between the two parts. At present the per capita income of South Korea is seven times higher than that of North Korea. So, North Korea will be benefited through reunification.
North Korea is supported by China while the South enjoys western support. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, has announced help and cooperation for North Korea. She hopes to establish good relations with the new administration of North Korea. Now, will these big global players allow the reunification of the Koreas to happen smoothly? Besides, Kim Jong-un, the son of Kim Jong-il, has been groomed and brought up with the same ideology of his father. Will he allow the reunification? Only time will untie the knot of this riddle. Let us wait to see what is going to happen?
The writer is Program Manager, BRAC. He can be reached at email: mmbillah2000@yahoo.com
He perpetuated a cult personality as the "dear leader", even as many of the nation's 24 million citizens lived on an average income of less than a dollar a day. Kim Jong-il ruled the country for 17 years and resisted opening up to the outside world in order to protect his regime. "The likely succession of his third son, Jong-un, threatens to trigger a dangerous period for the Korean Peninsula where 1.7 million troops from the two Koreas and the US square off every day. Jong-un's taking complete control of the helm will not take place for a while due to his young and inexperienced leadership," said, Yang Moo Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
Kim Jong-il leaves behind an economy less than 3.0 per cent the size of South Korea's and which has relied on economic handouts since the 1990's when an estimated two million people died from famine. The United Nations and the US last year increased economic sanctions imposed as a result of North Korea's nuclear weapons development activities and attacks that killed 50 South Koreans. He earned the title 'axis of evil' for his country because of his nuclear activities but his genuine love and patriotism for his country gave him courage to ignore these western and outside world pressures.
In 2009, Kim Jong-il defied threats of United Nations sanctions to test a second nuclear device and a ballistic missile, technically capable of striking Tokyo. The following year, North Korea lashed out militarily, prompting stern warnings from the US and South Korea. An international investigation blamed his regime for the March 2010 sinking of a South Korean warship and the shelling of a South Korean island killing two soldiers and two civilians. These activities convinced the world that North Korea had achieved 'stunning' advances in its uranium-enrichment programme. In 2010, he set in line his succession plan. Kim Jong-un, thought to be 28 or 29 , was first mentioned in the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) dispatches on September 28 when his appointments as General and Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the party were announced.
Before the Korean war of 1950-1953, both South and North Korea had been one nation. But it got divided into two- namely North and South Korea. North Korea was influenced and helped by the Soviet Union and South Korea the US and other western powers. During the 1980s when the Soviet Union collapsed, support from Russia and other Eastern European countries declined. North Korea started to establish close ties with China. It angered the western powers and their ally South Korea. Both the parts began to do well in terms of economic achievement, although the South proved far ahead.
But in the 1990s, North Korea witnessed a severe famine due to several poor harvests because of adverse weather conditions and some wrong agriculture policies. Hundreds and thousands of North Koreans died in the famine. Kim Jong-il refrained from enforcing the usual tight restriction on mobility, permitting starving people to travel within the country to find food. Kim hoped to avert a sudden loss of popular support. It was a pragmatic decision.
For three decades, he exercised absolute power, rarely traveling aboard or meeting foreign leaders and often going for long periods when his domestic public appearances were not mentioned in the state-run media. Kim Jong-il was a cinema buff whose personal library included tens of thousands of western movies. Obsessed with improving the country's film output, his agents kidnapped South Korea's leading director Shin Sang-ok, and the director's actress wife, Choi- Eun-hi. They subsequently escaped with tape recordings of conversation they had with Kim Jong-il.
In 1991, Kim Jong-il became Commander in Chief of North Korea's powerful armed force. Three years later when Kim Sung-il died at 82, most outsiders predicted the imminent collapse of North Korea as the nation had lost its venerable founding father. A few years later, its powerful alliances had evaporated with the fall of the Soviet Union bloc and China's move toward a market based system. The economy was on the rocks and energy and food were in short supply. Kim Jong-il inherited a genius for playing the weak hand and by keeping the major powers nervous. He managed to open a dialogue and arrange a summit level meeting with the then South Korean president in 2000.
Now the political analysts ask whether the two Koreas are going to be reunified as Kim Jong-il has passed away. If it could be reunited, the poverty- stricken people of North Korea would be benefited. Again, another group suggests that the reunification of two the Koreas will create economic imbalance between the two parts. At present the per capita income of South Korea is seven times higher than that of North Korea. So, North Korea will be benefited through reunification.
North Korea is supported by China while the South enjoys western support. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, has announced help and cooperation for North Korea. She hopes to establish good relations with the new administration of North Korea. Now, will these big global players allow the reunification of the Koreas to happen smoothly? Besides, Kim Jong-un, the son of Kim Jong-il, has been groomed and brought up with the same ideology of his father. Will he allow the reunification? Only time will untie the knot of this riddle. Let us wait to see what is going to happen?
The writer is Program Manager, BRAC. He can be reached at email: mmbillah2000@yahoo.com