Will Mamata withdraw her support from UPA government?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The issue that is causing plenty of ripples in the Indian political circles at the moment is the relationship between the Congress, the main constituent of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, and the second largest party in the group in terms of number of parliamentary seats - the Trinamul Congress led by Paschimbanga Chief Minister Mamata Baneerjee. The matter has rather unexpectedly come to the fore as the Trinamul Congress has issued a threat to its much larger coalition partner of quitting the alliance on the issue of increasing the prices of petroleum products. The warning has made the Congress sit up since the withdrawal of the support by the Trinamul may bring down the UPA government or at least seriously jeopardise governance by the UPA. Consequently, a flurry of contacts between the two parties followed as a sequel to the threat. Finally, it appears that the seriousness of the situation has slightly eased, but the tensions in the ties of the two allies continue to rattle the Indian political circles. Because, if really the Trinamul decides to call off the support of its 20 members in the lower house of the parliament (Lok Sabha), this may trigger a political crisis in the country unless the Congress succeeds in staving off the potentially volatile situation. In the event of such a development, India may even go for midterm polls or see a new government with fresh permutation and combinations of strength of the like-minded political parties. It is also possible that the political forces, not seeing eye-to-eye on different matters, may also join hands in the quest for forming a new government. However, such a possibility seems to have reduced for the time being as top leadership of both Congress and Trinamul sought to hammer out the differences. Some progress made in the parleys has to some extent eliminated the fears of an immediate crisis, but the differences are far from being resolved. The situation may snowball again although both sides have to think twice before aggravating the raging controversy between them as both have high stakes on the continuation of the present UPA government led by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. The trouble began as the UPA government has once again enhanced the prices of petroleum products, which has angered the Trinamul Congress that swept to power in the Paschimbanga state five months ago riding a massive popular support. Since the party is a constituent of the federal government led by the Congress Party of Sonia Gandhi, it evidently did not want to take the burden of the unpopular measure of increasing the prices of these products that affect the common people. Besides, the Trinamul Congress alleged that it was not at all consulted before taking such a critical decision and hence it gave vent to its anger and frustration. Such is the extent of the sentiment that the Trinamul parliamentarians met at an emergency session and decided to quit the ruling alliance. However, they left the final decision to the party supremo Mamata Baneerjee. This development came as a surprise to different circles since it had all the potentials of triggering a political crisis that would have far-reaching consequences. True, the Congress and the Trinamul forged alliance before the last Lok Sabha elections and then again in the recent Paschimbangla state assembly polls. Both the parties have benefited from the alliance, which increased their respective tally in the federal parliament and a landslide win in the state polls by demolishing the leftist citadel in Paschimbanga. However, this advantage was mainly for the Trinamul which is the strongest political force in the state, although the party is confined only within this state. The Trinamul alone has nearly two-thirds majority in the Paschimbanga Vidhan Sabha while it has only 20 seats in the federal parliament, where the Congress has 209 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Although with only 20 seats, the Trinamul is crucially important for the Congress, as the main constituent has to rely on smaller parties for a majority in the House. If the 20 members of Trinamul withdraw their support, then the Congress-led UPA alliance will suffer a serious setback. As such, the trouble that is brewing is not without reason and many were apprehensive of an impending political crisis in India. The situation saw senior Congress leader and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee rushing to Kolkata for talks with Mamata Baneerjee and also a team of Trinamul comprising several federal ministers belonging to the party meeting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other senior Congress leaders in New Delhi. It is understood that the Congress has said "sorry" to the Trinamul for not consulting on the prices of petroleum and assured that it would not happen again. However, Pranab Mukherjee said he discussed many issues including financial allocation to Paschimbanga with the chief minister. Indeed, it is a serious issue between the two parties that came close on the heels of misunderstanding relating to signing of the Teesta water accord with Bangladesh during the Indian prime minister's recent visit to Bangladesh. It appears that their differences are on the increase centring on a variety of issues and further widening of problems may lead to the break up of the alliance. However, both sides have limitations and constraints. The UPA government of Dr Manmohan Singh obviously needs the Trinamul support for remaining in power, while the later is conscious of the fact that its plans to develop the railway system and overall progress in Paschimbanga would suffer badly, if the support is withdrawn. As a result, both are cautious about their steps and Mamata is unlikely to act in haste on its ties with the Congress. The Trinamul has said it would not accept any further increase in the prices of petroleum products in future and leave the ruling alliance in the event of such a development. It appears that a temporary "truce" has been reached for the sake of both the parties although the understanding looks fragile. Email: zaglulbss@yahoo.com