Will the economy rebound after the mass upsurge?

Sixteen years ago, the national budget of Bangladesh in the fiscal year 2008-2009 was only Tk 99,962 crore. The five-figure budget announced by then one-eleven caretaker government was increased by the Awami League government in Tk. 797,000 crore from 2009-2010 to 2024-2025 fiscal year gradually. However, it is needless to say that along with this huge amount of budget, the spread of corruption has also increased at a great speed.
It is true that in every fiscal year of the previous Awami League government, the continuity of visible development in the country was uninterrupted, but the invisible black hand of unbridled looting gradually darkened the entire development process. The end result of which was the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the mass upsurge of August 5. This mass revolt of students against corruption and demanding justice has given a strong message to all the parties aspiring for power on the one hand and on the other, the interim government is struggling to handle the huge debt burden of the previous government.
Pushing forward radical reforms of the state has now become inevitable. However, it will not be an easy task to reap the benefits overnight by changing a well-established system that has been built over the years. Even, this change cannot be brought easily by changing only a certain number of people or posts. In order to bring a holistic change in any situation, one has to get to the root of the problem and identify the flaws in the system. Then structural changes are needed first to eliminate the defects. Otherwise, the achievement of the students may lose momentum.
To discuss it more bluntly, it is very important to use the interim period carefully in case of a change. A small mistake at this time may require a new movement to correct it further. In other words, this time of awakening should be used to close the doors of the opportunistic groups so that no bad incident is repeated.
Looking at the past history of Bangladesh, it can be seen that this country was never free from the corruption. Sometimes it has decreased and sometimes it has skyrocketed, even sometimes corruption and development have increased simultaneously. That is, the group of bribe takers and lickers never left the society. Rather, sometimes they have tried to give a different form to corruption and looting after being reinstated. That is why Bangabandhu lamented in a public meeting in Barguna on January 3, 1973, "What I beg is eaten by all the lickers, my poor get nothing".
There is no reason to think that even after such a massive mass revolt, everyone would become cowed by fear. Reading the newspaper reports of the past few days, the lines from the famous music artist Haider Hossain's lyrics 'Ki dekhar kotha ki dekhchi? Ki Shonar kotha ki Sunche?' are ringing in ears. During the tenure of the previous government, a PM's house peon became the owner of Tk 400 crore, which shook the conscience of the entire nation. The question arises - if the peon of the house owns this huge amount of money, then what have the big bosses done? There is no doubt that they have also become owners of huge wealth. So, in future such unfettered facilities have to be nipped in the bud.
It would not be wrong to say that the increasing corruption in the financial sector has rendered a structured form during the previous government. As a result, the defaulted loan of Tk 22,481 crore in December 2008 has increased to Tk 1,82,000 crore in 2024, which is the highest in history. The most alarming thing is that at least Tk. 1,100,000 crores have been laundered out of the country in the last fifteen years. That is, the amount of money laundered is about 1.38 times of the last national budget.
According to an estimate by the anti-corruption organisation Transparency International Bangladesh, about 10000 to 15000 million dollars are laundered out from Bangladesh every year. And Global Financial Integrity (GFI), a research institute based in Washington, USA, said in 2020, an average of 7533.7 million dollars is laundered out from Bangladesh every year. In the meantime, a strong commitment has been expressed from the top levels of the current government to curb money laundering and repatriate the laundered money. But only time will say if it will be possible to bring back this huge amount.
Bringing money back from abroad is one of the most complex and difficult tasks. Although the previous government announced many facilities for the money launderers to bring the money back, nothing worked.
According to the Ministry of Finance, when former PM Sheikh Hasina assumed power in 2009, the debt status of the government was Tk. 276,830 crore. In a decade and a half, the debt status has soared to Tk. 1,558,206 crore. The fact that the Awami League government left power with a debt of Tk 1,835,000 crore from domestic and foreign sources has emerged as an obstacle to maintaining the balance of the overall economy.
Given the overall scenario, challenges for the current government are many. Implementation of participatory financial policy, adoption of proper revenue policy, curbing inflation to a bearable level, prevention of money laundering, ensuring remittance inflow, expansion of international trade system, elimination of market syndicates, improvement of law and order situation are some of the key priorities to revamp the country's economic condition. Until then, it is very important for everyone to show as much patience as possible.

M M Mahbub Hasan is a banker and development researcher.
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