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Worsening crisis in the Red Sea

Syed Fattahul Alim | Monday, 15 January 2024


After Friday's airstrikes by the US and the UK on Houthi positions in Yemen, the US targeted the Houthi's radar sites in, what it (US) termed a follow-on strike on Saturday. Meanwhile, the US president is learnt to have sent what it called a private message to Iran, which is believed to be doing the string-pulling in the Houthi affairs, to make his country's (US's) position clear regarding the crisis that has been created in the Red Sea.
Notably, the Houthis are the armed group that control the Western coast of Yemen including the country's capital city of Sanaa. After war broke out in Gaza strip following the October 7, 2023's armed raid into Israel by the Islamist militant group, Hamas and Israel's massive response in the form of carpet bombing of Gaza supported by ground offensive, the Houthis expressed their solidarity with the Gazans.
Against this backdrop, Houthis began to carry out attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea suspected of carrying goods to and from Israeli ports. Houthis said any ship destined for Israel was a legitimate target and they would not stop until Israeli offensive stopped in Gaza.
So, will the Houthis at Iran's bidding, as expected, stop their attacks in fear of a stronger US reprisal? Time will tell. But at the moment, the Houthis, in defiance of US attack, held mass rallies in their country vowing strong response. Consider what their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in his speech following the strikes, "We, the Yemeni people, are not among those who are afraid of America. We are comfortable with direct confrontation with the Americans".
Now the more perplexing question is, are the Houthis mere proxies of Iran or they have their own objectives in the region? If Iran does not have full control over the Houthis and the latter have their own agenda to fulfil, then the US action rather than easing, will further complicate matters in the region. The Red Sea and the countries surrounding this important maritime route run the risk of being embroiled in a bigger Middle Eastern conflict than the one ongoing at the moment in Gaza.
In that case, one should be prepared for the worst. The impact on the seaborne trade that takes place through the Red Sea will be disastrous. According to US, this maritime route involves 15 per cent of the global seaborne trade. Especially, at stake will be 12 per cent of world's oil, 8 per cent of liquefied natural gas, 8 per cent of food grains that use the maritime route for passage between Asia and Europe.
True, the turbulence in the Red Sea has compelled many shipping companies to cease operation altogether or reroute their commercial vessels around the southernmost tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, raising cost of shipping multiple times.
With the Suez Canal in the north and the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait at its southern end, the Red Sea is a lifeline of trade between Asia and Europe.
One wonders if the handling of the crisis in the Red Sea by the world powers is going to bring any positive results. The Houthis, to be precise are still a movement, not a state. They are a battle-hardened group having fought a decade-long civil war. Also they have nothing to lose if the war drags on. Now with the involvement of the great powers, Houthis will draw the attention of the entire world. The US knows better than any other country, how easy it is to get entangled in such wars and what it costs finally to get out of them. Meanwhile, the Red Sea will remain inaccessible to commercial vessels travelling between Asia and Europe and the rest of the world. That would cause supply chain disruption of the global trade on a gargantuan scale. This is causing huge loss to global trade. But worse may still happen. Israel's premier Netanyahu may be waiting for such an opportunity to involve the US directly in an unwinnable war he has been fighting for more than three months killing defenceless civilians, especially children and women, in thousands.
The US and its allies would do well not to start a ful-fledged war in the Red Sea in the name of making passage of commercial vessels through that maritime route safer.
The truth that must be faced is that the root cause of all these crises whether in the sea or on the land lies in the Israel's continuing madness in Gaza. The power that can stop this mindless bloodletting in the region is the USA.
According to the BBC, the UK's defence secretary, David Cameron, writing to Sunday Telegraph has explained why the UK had to resort to military strike against the Houthis. In Cameron's words, 'If the Houthis deny this passage to ships, vital supply chains are threatened and prices will go up in Britain and across the globe.'
But the question is, will military strike stop the Houthis? Is there no non-military, diplomatic answer to the crisis?

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