Yemen's ills go far beyond al Qaeda
Saturday, 23 January 2010
Alistair Lyon
Yemen, a land of startling beauty and often engaging people, has gained an evil public image since an al Qaeda group based there claimed a failed Dec. 25 attack on a U.S. airliner.
But the West and its Arab allies should not just focus on fighting terrorism if they are to help the southern Arabian nation stifle the threat from militants exploiting internal conflicts, poverty and weak central authority, analysts say.
"The West must adopt a 'whole of government' approach that sets immediate counter-terrorism objectives within a broader framework that attempts to tackle longer-term economic pressures and reduce political tensions," said Yemen expert Ginny Hill.
That would require a united Western position, support from Yemen's Arab neighbours and a willing and able partner in Yemen, Hill, author of a Chatham House paper on Yemen, told Reuters.
The United States and its allies meet in London on Wednesday to discuss how to combat militancy and promote reform in Yemen, ruled for nearly 32 years by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, 67.
How foreign powers interact with the wily Yemeni leader is delicate for both sides, whose interests only partly overlap.
Keen to harness U.S. support and funding, Saleh has sought to paint his internal foes -- northern tribal rebels and disgruntled southerners -- as all somehow linked to al Qaeda.
Yemeni analyst Abdul-Ghani Iryani acknowledged that the role played by former jihadi Tareq al-Fadhli in the southern movement "further legitimises government diversion of counter-terrorism funding to quell the legitimate protests of the south".
But he identified Yemen's main problem as poor governance.
"The war against al Qaeda cannot be won without disarming it of its main recruiting tool: injustice, lack of the rule of law and the massive corruption that has impoverished the majority of the population," Iryani said.
About 42 percent of Yemen's 23 million people live on less than $2 a day, the World Bank says. The riyal sank to its lowest level in years this week. Revenue from dwindling oil output fell 70 percent in Jan-Oct 2009. New gas exports cannot fill the gap.
The population is set to double in 20 years, but jobs are already scarce and water resources are collapsing.
The conflict with Zaidi Shi'ite tribesmen in the north has killed thousands and displaced around 200,000 people since 2004. It drains state finances, even though Saudi Arabia, Yemen's main donor, began fighting the rebels on its border in November.
"The Yemeni government cannot do a lot about al Qaeda unless it resolves the war in the north and the secessionist movement in the south," said Abdullah al-Faqih, a political scientist at Sanaa University. "These two conflicts provide al Qaeda with the environment to flourish and move freely."
Donors will be wary of throwing more money at Yemen, which has managed to spend only a fraction of the $5 billion pledged at a 2006 conference, at least without tight supervision.
"You can't just give aid to the government to do what it likes. Money can go into the pockets of officials," said Faqih.
Western countries may have no choice but to work with the Yemeni president, especially on counter-terrorism, but some recognise that tackling economic and social troubles is vital.
"The root causes of conflict in Yemen are a lack of governance and of delivery of services by the state," Ivan Lewis, a British minister of state, told parliament this week.
Many Yemenis, citing past U.S. inconstancy in Afghanistan, Pakistan and their own country, fear Western interest is fickle.
"There is growing concern within Yemen that if the al Qaeda threat were to go away, U.S. aid would also go away," said Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen specialist at Princeton University.
He said foreign donors were concerned at how Saleh and other powerful figures might use aid for their own domestic political purposes, rather than for what the West wants to accomplish, and had "valid concerns" about human rights and corruption in Yemen.
Cooperating overtly with the United States also carries risks for Saleh, who suffered a public backlash after a U.S. drone strike killed an al Qaeda leader on Yemeni soil in 2002.
"It's a balancing act for both sides," Johnsen said.
Wealthier Arab neighbours have also grown more worried about instability in Yemen spilling out into the world's top oil-exporting region and some of its busiest shipping lanes.
But the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have long kept Yemen at arm's length, refusing to include it in their club and expelling its migrant workers, a vital source of foreign exchange, said London-based Saudi analyst Mai Yamani.
Yemeni officials say one way to alleviate their country's plight is to encourage Gulf states to take in Yemeni workers and to improve their skills with more vocational training at home.
"Yemen is in many ways the victim of these countries," Yamani said. "And it continues to be a severe threat to them."
-- Reuters
Yemen, a land of startling beauty and often engaging people, has gained an evil public image since an al Qaeda group based there claimed a failed Dec. 25 attack on a U.S. airliner.
But the West and its Arab allies should not just focus on fighting terrorism if they are to help the southern Arabian nation stifle the threat from militants exploiting internal conflicts, poverty and weak central authority, analysts say.
"The West must adopt a 'whole of government' approach that sets immediate counter-terrorism objectives within a broader framework that attempts to tackle longer-term economic pressures and reduce political tensions," said Yemen expert Ginny Hill.
That would require a united Western position, support from Yemen's Arab neighbours and a willing and able partner in Yemen, Hill, author of a Chatham House paper on Yemen, told Reuters.
The United States and its allies meet in London on Wednesday to discuss how to combat militancy and promote reform in Yemen, ruled for nearly 32 years by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, 67.
How foreign powers interact with the wily Yemeni leader is delicate for both sides, whose interests only partly overlap.
Keen to harness U.S. support and funding, Saleh has sought to paint his internal foes -- northern tribal rebels and disgruntled southerners -- as all somehow linked to al Qaeda.
Yemeni analyst Abdul-Ghani Iryani acknowledged that the role played by former jihadi Tareq al-Fadhli in the southern movement "further legitimises government diversion of counter-terrorism funding to quell the legitimate protests of the south".
But he identified Yemen's main problem as poor governance.
"The war against al Qaeda cannot be won without disarming it of its main recruiting tool: injustice, lack of the rule of law and the massive corruption that has impoverished the majority of the population," Iryani said.
About 42 percent of Yemen's 23 million people live on less than $2 a day, the World Bank says. The riyal sank to its lowest level in years this week. Revenue from dwindling oil output fell 70 percent in Jan-Oct 2009. New gas exports cannot fill the gap.
The population is set to double in 20 years, but jobs are already scarce and water resources are collapsing.
The conflict with Zaidi Shi'ite tribesmen in the north has killed thousands and displaced around 200,000 people since 2004. It drains state finances, even though Saudi Arabia, Yemen's main donor, began fighting the rebels on its border in November.
"The Yemeni government cannot do a lot about al Qaeda unless it resolves the war in the north and the secessionist movement in the south," said Abdullah al-Faqih, a political scientist at Sanaa University. "These two conflicts provide al Qaeda with the environment to flourish and move freely."
Donors will be wary of throwing more money at Yemen, which has managed to spend only a fraction of the $5 billion pledged at a 2006 conference, at least without tight supervision.
"You can't just give aid to the government to do what it likes. Money can go into the pockets of officials," said Faqih.
Western countries may have no choice but to work with the Yemeni president, especially on counter-terrorism, but some recognise that tackling economic and social troubles is vital.
"The root causes of conflict in Yemen are a lack of governance and of delivery of services by the state," Ivan Lewis, a British minister of state, told parliament this week.
Many Yemenis, citing past U.S. inconstancy in Afghanistan, Pakistan and their own country, fear Western interest is fickle.
"There is growing concern within Yemen that if the al Qaeda threat were to go away, U.S. aid would also go away," said Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen specialist at Princeton University.
He said foreign donors were concerned at how Saleh and other powerful figures might use aid for their own domestic political purposes, rather than for what the West wants to accomplish, and had "valid concerns" about human rights and corruption in Yemen.
Cooperating overtly with the United States also carries risks for Saleh, who suffered a public backlash after a U.S. drone strike killed an al Qaeda leader on Yemeni soil in 2002.
"It's a balancing act for both sides," Johnsen said.
Wealthier Arab neighbours have also grown more worried about instability in Yemen spilling out into the world's top oil-exporting region and some of its busiest shipping lanes.
But the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have long kept Yemen at arm's length, refusing to include it in their club and expelling its migrant workers, a vital source of foreign exchange, said London-based Saudi analyst Mai Yamani.
Yemeni officials say one way to alleviate their country's plight is to encourage Gulf states to take in Yemeni workers and to improve their skills with more vocational training at home.
"Yemen is in many ways the victim of these countries," Yamani said. "And it continues to be a severe threat to them."
-- Reuters