Zooming in on Bangladesh reality

There is no denying the fact that the composition of population of any country plays a crucial role in its growth and development. In this context, due to its direct contribution to the labour market, the proportional size and the trend of youth population are of further importance. From a global point of view, the world now hosts the ever largest young people: aged between 10 and 24. UNFPA, in its report on the state of the world population in 2014 said that in many countries of the world the proportion of youth to the population was showing a rising trend. This increase in youth population is expected to raise the proportion of working age population of a country, which can act as a positive factor in its growth.
In the context of Bangladesh, according to the Labour Force Survey 2013 (prepared and released by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics), within the age group of 15 to 29 years, there was around 43.4 million people. So, the youth population consisted of around 28 per cent of total population of the country.  From an initial high fertility-high mortality structure during 70's, Bangladesh with advancement of health care facilities and expansion of family planning programme, has eventually been able to significantly reduce birth rate as well as death rate. Life expectancy increased from 58.4 in 1990 to 71.6 in 2014, according to a report of the World Bank. This rise in youth population has been reflected in the trend of youth labour force: from 19 million in 2002-03, with a decline in 2005 to 17.8 million. The youth labour force (aged 15-29 years) reached 23.4 million in 2013 (LFS, 2013). This increased youth labour force if coupled with essential education and skill, then could turn into a vital factor for Bangladesh's development.
The increased policy focus on youth population is primarily due to the plausible positive impact of the proportional increase of the working age population on economic growth -- commonly referred to as demographic dividend.
Demographic dividend can be defined as "..the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country's mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population"
An increase in working age population (15 to 64 years) which consists of youth population (15 to 29 years) is argued to have a direct effect on growth through increased labour market participation as well as indirect effect through higher savings and greater investment in human capital. This plausible growth enhancing effect of youth population, however, critically depends on the quality of youth population in terms of education, health and skill level. Based on such characteristics of population, the implications for the rising trend of youth population on the growth prospects of a country can however be quite diverse.
While analysing the time series data of Bangladesh from 1972 to 2014 and separately for different decades (1972-80; 1981-90; 1991-00; 2001-10; 2011-14) the Table 1 reveals that during early years the average GDP growth of the country was quite low (1.76 per cent) with a high standard deviation. The average share of youths in total population (RYP) in the corresponding period was around 23 per cent. From a statistical point of view, the correlation coefficient of GDP growth and proportion of youth population was found to be negative but insignificant (- 0.477). During 80's GDP (gross domestic product) growth on an average has increased along with RYP - their correlation was, however, still negative and insignificant. The decade of 90's experienced an average GDP growth of above 4.0 per cent and the average RYP during that period increased further to more than 29 per cent as well resulting in a positive (but insignificant) correlation coefficient between the variables. The increase in average GDPG along with increase in RYP continued in the next decade too and during 2001 to 2011 the correlation coefficient between the variables turned out to be significant with a positive sign. For the sample as a whole, during 1972 to 2014, the correlation coefficient was found to be 0.336 with a positive sign and being statistically significant. Our descriptive statistics therefore provide evidence of plausible positive impact of proportional increase in youth population in economic growth for Bangladesh- the impact of change in RYP on GDPG could be considered as a long run phenomenon for Bangladesh.
In order to estimate long-run relationship among a number of variables, the most conventional technique is the co-integration analysis. In this connection, we have estimated a standard growth model with relevant variables and have applied the standard Johansen Co-integration analysis after performing stationarity check of the variables. Based on our analysis, in the long run, RYP has been found to have a significant positive impact on per capita GDP growth (Table 2). Among other key macro variables, the long-run impact of trade-GDP ratio (GDPSTRADE), Public Spending on Education as percentage of GDP (GDPSPSE) were found to be significant. Most importantly, the impact of GDPSPSE was found to be more on economic growth than others implying the importance of investment in human capital.
Based on our analysis, we can infer that, in case of Bangladesh, an increase in the proportional share of youth population to total population in the long run tends to have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. The evidence of positive and significant long-run impact of youth population on economic growth of the country provides an indication in favour of the possibility of attaining demographic dividend for the country. In this connection, we should, however, keep in mind that integrating and utilising the youth population in the growth process of the country requires increased investment in education and skill development and to carefully plan and set the strategy in favour of it. Given that a significant percentage of youth work force of Bangladesh possess no education with a very small number holding university degrees, it is of paramount importance for upgrading the education level of the youths. In technical and vocational training, a similar scenario can be found, which requires a similar policy focus too. A number of specific policy issues in this regard are as follows:
n In order to utilise the proportional increase in youth population, it is crucial to provide quality education to them. With a view to achieving the 8.0 per cent growth target as proposed in the 7th Five Year Plan, the most important policy step would be to increase allocation in human resource development by a much greater margin.
n It is needless to mention that quality assessment is fundamental in education and skill development programmes. Monitoring of quality is important at all stages of educational programmes and effective implementation of relevant policies and projects should be given priority in this regard.
n With a view to link the policies of youth development to reduce poverty and to bring greater equity, specific demands for women as well as those in remote and lagging regions are needed to be considered.
n Initiatives for youth development involve a number of ministries, e.g. Ministry of Education, Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, Ministry of Youth and Sports, Ministry of Women and Children Affairs, Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment etc. Effective coordination across the relevant personnel is critical in this regard for timely and efficient implementation of government programmes.
n In order to ensure effectiveness of youth development programmes, it is important to conduct yearly and mid-term evaluation exercise (M&E) of government policies and relevant development expenditures for attaining desired results from youth development initiatives.
Dr Sayema Haque Bidisha and  S M Abdullah are Associate Professor and Assistant Professor respectively at the Department of Economics, University of Dhaka. [email protected],
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