Analysts are holding their oil price forecasts largely unchanged as rising OPEC+ output targets and lacklustre demand offset geopolitical risks to supply, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
A survey of 36 economists and analysts conducted in October forecasts Brent crude will average $67.99 per barrel in 2025, about 38 cents above last month's estimate. West Texas Intermediate is expected to average $64.83 in 2025, slightly above September's estimate of $64.39.
"Oil prices in 2025 are being shaped by a delicate balance of supply growth, modest demand, and geopolitical uncertainty," said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller. "On the supply side, rising output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers has kept the market well-supplied, while demand growth, though positive, is slowing, particularly in OECD economies."
Analysts expect that the oil market will see a surplus in 2026, with estimates ranging anywhere from 0.19 to 3 million barrels per day (bpd). Fears of a supply glut, along with economic concerns tied to U.S.-China trade relations, sent oil prices to a five-month low on Oct 20.
OPEC+ since April has raised output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd, around 2.5% of global supply and just under half the 5.85 million bpd in cuts the group had previously agreed to.
The group is leaning towards making another modest increase in oil output for December, Reuters has reported, following a 137,000 bpd hike for November.
"While the OPEC+ supply response continues to remain flexible depending on market conditions, the current course of action seems to be driven by a desire to gain market share rather than support oil prices at any specific level," DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar said. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. this month hit two of Russia's largest oil companies with sanctions, while markets are also monitoring a fragile ceasefire in Gaza.
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