BP postpones oil demand peak prediction to 2030 from 2025

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters): BP said on Thursday it expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, five years later than its forecast a year ago, stressing slowed efforts to increase energy efficiency.

The oil major's latest Energy Outlook, an annual study of energy trends through 2050, models two scenarios.

The "Current Trajectory" scenario is based on existing policies and pledges, while in its "Below 2-Degrees" scenario it envisions about a 90 per cent drop in carbon emissions by 2050 from 2023 levels.

Emissions are largely the result of burning oil, natural gas and coal.

Global oil demand is expected to hit 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 in BP's Current Trajectory, before falling to 83 million bpd by 2050.

BP's report last year saw demand peaking by 2025 at around 102 million bpd, but slowing efficiency gains have changed the picture.

In its Below 2-Degrees scenario, oil demand peaks this year at 102.2 million bpd before falling to 33.8 million bpd by 2050.

In the Current Trajectory, CO2 equivalent emissions stay broadly flat to 2030, then fall by about 25 per cent by 2050 from 2023 levels.

In the Below 2-Degrees scenario, emissions drop 90 per cent, driven by faster decarbonisation in emerging economies.