Global corn supplies heading for 11-yr lows

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Feb 16 (Reuters): Relative to demand, world corn stocks later this year are predicted to hit 11-year lows.

But when considering corn supplies actually accessible to the global market, the milestone is closer to three decades.

On-and-off grain importer China has an extraordinary amount of corn in storage, more than five times that of the United States, the No. 2 corn stockpiler. As such, China is sometimes excluded from world grain balances to obtain a more realistic view of available supplies.

After subtracting China, estimates from the US Department of Agriculture show 2024-25 world corn ending stocks at a 12-year low of about 87 million metric tons.

Supplies are even tighter when measured against demand. In 2024-25, world corn stocks-to-use sans China is pegged at 7.8 per cent, the lowest ratio since 1995-96. That compares with a four-year average of 9.2 per cent and a 20-year average of 11 per cent.

Corn supplies in No. 2 exporter Brazil are predicted at the lowest levels in more than two decades, and Ukrainian and European Union stocks are the thinnest in over a decade. U.S. inventory is now seen as modest versus prior expectations for ample volumes.

Things are still somewhat snug even when adding back China. USDA's figures imply full world corn stocks-to-use in 2024-25 at 20.3 per cent, the lowest since 2013-14. That compares with a decade average of 24.6 per cent and a low within that period of 22.2 per cent.

Stocks-to-use throughout most of the 2000s and early 2010s was notably lower, usually below 15 per cent.