LONDON, May 22 (Reuters): Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as investors doubted the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, but remained on track for a weekly loss.
Brent crude futures were up $1.17, or around 1.1 per cent, at $103.75 a barrel by 1334 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were 52 cents, or 0.5 per cent, higher at $96.87 - both had risen over 3 per cent earlier in the session.
On a weekly basis, Brent was more than 5 per cent lower and WTI was down around 8 per cent, with prices fluctuating sharply as expectations for a peace deal shifted.
A diplomatic source in Islamabad told Iran's state news agency IRNA that Pakistan's army chief had left for Iran. A senior Iranian source told Reuters earlier that gaps with the US have narrowed, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of "some good signs" in talks.
However, the countries are still divided on Tehran's uranium stockpile and controls on the Strait of Hormuz.
The market has been trying to assess when a possible peace deal might be struck, while global oil inventories are depleting at an alarming pace as oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz slow to a trickle, said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.
"The optimism of a relatively imminent truce and bearish rhetoric whenever Brent approaches $110 prevents oil prices from rallying significantly higher," he said.
Separately, a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the US to help secure a deal, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Friday.
Six weeks since a fragile ceasefire took effect, efforts to end the war have shown little progress, while elevated oil prices have fuelled concern over inflation and the outlook for the global economy.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has raised its average 2026 dated Brent price forecast to $90 from $81.50 to reflect the supply deficit, time required to repair damaged Gulf energy infrastructure, and a six-to-eight week post-conflict normalisation window.
Around 20 per cent of global energy supplies transited the Strait before the war, which has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil - or 14 per cent of global supply - from the market, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait.
Full oil flows through the Strait will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ends now, the head of UAE state oil firm ADNOC said.
China's refined fuel exports in June might rise only slightly from May as it tries to safeguard its own demand needs, three trade sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, to around 550,000 metric tons or slightly more compared with about 500,000 tons expected for May.
Seven leading OPEC+ oil-producing countries will likely agree to a modest hike to July output when they meet on June 7, four sources said, although delivery for several remains disrupted by the Iran war.
