LITTLETON, Colorado, Dec 11 (Reuters): Major Asian economies including China, India, Japan and Vietnam have cleaned up their power generation systems by more than the United States and Europe in 2025, setting the stage for an East-West divergence in energy transition momentum heading into 2026.
Over the first 10 months of 2025, the United States was the only major power market to increase the carbon intensity of power generation compared to the year before, according to data from energy think tank Ember.
The chief driver of the rise in US carbon intensity has been a roughly 13 per cent increase in coal-fired power generation, which has lifted US power sector emissions from fossil fuel use to three-year highs.
European power firms have also lifted their collective CO2 emissions so far this year compared to 2024, while China, India, Japan and Vietnam have all registered year-to-date declines in CO2 output from fossil fuel power generation.
With winter approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, higher generation from fossil fuels can be expected across Asia, Europe and North America in the coming months, which will lift the carbon intensity of all major power systems.
But the US is likely to continue leading the pack in terms of carbon emissions growth as power firms in the country opt to dial up output from coal plants ahead of cleaner natural gas plants following a steep rise in national natural gas prices.
All major power systems have reduced their carbon intensity - or the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released per kilowatt hour (KWh) of electricity production - over the past five years or so.
However, only China has managed to register consistent annual declines in intensity since 2019, largely on the back of world-leading deployment of clean power sources that have allowed utilities to cut back on fossil fuel reliance.
During January to October of 2025, China's carbon intensity of power output averaged 562 grams of CO2 per KWh, compared to nearly 670 grams of CO2/KWh in 2019, Ember data shows.
Elsewhere, other major power systems have posted at least one annual rise in carbon intensity since 2019 as a mixture of rising power demand, patchy clean power supplies and power policy pivots have sparked shifts in generation mixes.
However, only the US system has posted an increase so far in 2025, with an average of 383.3 grams of CO2 emitted per KWh during January to October, compared to 381.2 grams during the same months in 2024.
Europe's average carbon intensity is down around 2 per cent so far this year from 2024, while India (down 5 per cent), Japan (down 3 per cent) and Vietnam (down 2 per cent) have also registered reductions.
Asian economies remain far more coal-reliant than major power networks in Europe and North America.
India generates roughly 70 per cent of its electricity from coal, China's coal share is 55 per cent, Vietnam's is 48 per cent and Japan's is around 27 per cent so far this year.
In contrast, Europe has generated less than 13 per cent of its electricity supplies from coal-fired power plants this year, while the US coal share is around 16 per cent.
However, the US is the only major power market to register a steep rise in coal's share of the overall generation mix so far this year, which is why the US carbon intensity path is out of whack with trends in other regions.
The US coal share of around 16.1 per cent so far this year compares with a 14.6 per cent coal share in 2024, and so marks an 11 per cent rise in the share of utility electricity supplies coming from coal plants compared to the year before.
Indeed, coal plants have been by far the largest source of electricity supply growth in the US this year, and have accounted for around 73 per cent of the increase in total electricity supplies during January to October, Ember data shows.
In all other major power markets, coal's share of the supply growth has been far less, including in India where extra coal-fired output accounted for only half of the overall rise in electricity supplies.
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