US misses out on billions in China soybean sales midway through peak season

BEIJING/SINGAPORE/CHICAGO, Sept 10 (Reuters): US farmers are missing out on billions of dollars of soybean sales to China halfway through their prime marketing season, as stalled trade talks halt exports and rival South American suppliers step in to fill the gap, traders and analysts said.

Chinese importers have booked around 7.4 million metric tons of mainly South American soybeans for October shipment, covering 95% of China's projected demand for the month and 1 million tons for November, or about 15% of expected imports, according to two Asia-based traders.

By this time last year, Chinese buyers had booked around 12 million to 13 million tons of U.S. soybeans for September-November shipment, said one of the traders, who is based in Singapore at an international trading company.

The U.S. normally ships most of its soybeans to China between September and January, before Brazil's harvest hits the market, but Chinese buyers have yet to book any U.S. cargoes for the new crop year, according to traders tracking shipments.

The U.S. sold some 22.9 million tons of soybeans to top buyer China in the marketing year that ran through August 2025. China purchased $12.8 billion of U.S. soybeans in 2024.

"If you look at the way things are, we think it is going to be South American beans through the end of the year," the Singapore trader said.

The prolonged absence of Chinese buying is expected to weigh further on benchmark Chicago soybean futures, already hovering near five-year lows. U.S. soybeans are about 80 to 90 cents a bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for September-October shipment, but China's 23% tariff on U.S. shipments adds $2 a bushel to the cost for importers, traders said.

The traders asked not to be named because they are not authorised to speak to media.