The US winter wheat crop is struggling, and there is no relief in sight.
In Kansas, only 14 per cent of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of January 29, down from 51 per cent at the end of November, reports producer.com.
Oklahoma was worse with four per cent in the good to excellent categories.
The main problem is the dryness. Almost half of the hard red winter wheat belt has received less than 25 per cent of normal precipitation over the past three months.
In Kansas, 79 per cent of the topsoil moisture supplies and 70 per cent of subsoil supplies were rated short to very short.
Oklahoma was in worse shape with 93 per cent of both the topsoil and subsoil supplies in those two categories.
Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather with MarketsFarm, said wheat crops have an uncanny ability to rebound, so he will wait until spring to draw conclusions about the fate of the crop.
"There is risk to this crop if the spring rains don't arrive," he said.
"By the time we hit mid-March, if we haven't seen much precipitation, then all sorts of red flags will be up."
History shows the dry conditions in the southern Plains could well persist through spring.
Commodity Weather Group (CWG) has studied seven years with similar conditions where it was dry in the southern Plains in the winter and there was a weak to moderate La Nina - 2014, 2011, 2006, 1996, 1986, 1981 and 1963 - and the trend was for the winter dryness to linger.
