The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) has projected a rise in the country's export earnings and import value at the end of this month (May) and the next month (June).
The foreign currency reserve is expected to rise in May to US$ 32,820 million from $ 32,450 million in April, but would fall to $ 32,250 million at the end of June, said the trade body.
"It is assumed that the peaceful political situation that currently prevails will continue in the coming days. In that situation, export, import, and foreign exchange reserve (Forex) can be expected to increase," according to MCCI's Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh for January-March period of FY 2018-19.
The rate of inflation may rise in May because of the Ramadan, as some essential commodities, including fuels, are likely to go up, it said.
A comparison of point to point inflation data for rural and urban areas in March of FY19 shows that the general and non-food inflation rates were higher in urban areas than in rural areas.
Food inflation, however, was lower in urban areas than in rural areas, the review added.
The MCCI has predicted that the export receipts might go up to $ 3,395 million and $ 3,450 million at the end of May and June respectively, as against $ 3,190 million in May last year.
On the other hand, the country's import values are also expected to reach $ 5,160 million in May and $ 5,195million in June, according to the MCCI's forecast.
The rate of point-to point inflation is likely to increase to 5.65 per cent by the end of May, which might decline to 5.50 per cent by June-end, the MCCI review added.
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