On the night of August 18, when the entire village of Dalori, near the mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, was sleeping, there were several loud bangs. Gul Hazir, a resident of Dalori, later told AFP that several cloudbursts from two sides of the village struck the remote valley.
Referring to the incident as something out of "an apocalyptic movie," Hazir recalled that a massive number of rocks and stones smashed into the houses first, followed by water from the hills. Many of the houses had been built in the middle of the stream bed, worsening the scale of the destruction. At least 15 houses were destroyed, killing nine people and trapping 20 villagers under the debris.
The cloudburst above Dalori is the latest to hit the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Such cloudbursts have already claimed the lives of more than 350 people across Pakistan this year.
The rapidly increasing occurrence of cloudbursts in Asian countries, especially in hilly areas, has been concerning climate experts and governments for the past few years. With every passing year, the number of disasters, deaths, and losses from cloudbursts is increasing.
To understand how cloudbursts are becoming rampant, one needs to understand how they occur.
Cloudbursts are sudden, highly localised downpours that are destructive due to the sheer volume of water they unleash in a short period. These occur when there is a sudden rainfall of more than 100 millimetres (around 4 inches) within an hour over an area of around 30 square kilometres (11.6 square miles).
Climate experts describe cloudbursts as the bursting of a cloud, similar to a "rain bomb." As the equivalent of several hours of normal rainfall or longer is discharged within less than an hour, these events often cause dangerous flash floods and landslides.
As a result, the death toll from cloudbursts can be quite high. Just this year, nearly 400 people have died in India and Pakistan.
Last month, in northwest Pakistan, cloudbursts resulted in ferocious floods that crashed through villages, killing at least 321 people in the space of 48 hours. Also last month, in India-administered Kashmir, at least 60 people were killed and more than 200 went missing in the Himalayan town of Chashoti when walls of mud and water gushed through the village, according to Reuters. Prior to this, in another incident in Uttarakhand, India, at least four people were killed when a surge of floodwater gushed through a village following a cloudburst.
Climate experts are concerned that cloudbursts or longer periods of torrential downpours are likely to become more frequent and ferocious in the South Asian region of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as the climate crisis intensifies.
To understand the reason behind such dreadful predictions, we need to look at the available data. Cloudbursts thrive on moisture, monsoons, and mountains, and the South Asian countries of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan have all three, making them prime targets for these extreme weather events. Cloudbursts need moisture. Rising temperatures in these countries during the summer and monsoon seasons are allowing warmer air masses to hold more moisture.
Though historically South Asia has had two monsoon seasons from June to September and October to December, that pattern has changed due to rising temperatures. This is also why we are seeing more extreme weather events like cloudbursts and flash floods, as well as dry spells and intense heat waves.
How deadly cloudbursts can be for Bangladesh is evident from a recent incident. Last year, cloudbursts began in Tripura, India, on August 19. Over the next three days, it rained incessantly, with as much as 435 millimetres of rainfall in Feni, more than 557 millimetres in Cumilla, and 605 millimetres in Noakhali. This intense rainfall, along with water from upstream, submerged Feni and Cumilla.
Households in these districts, which had not faced floods in the past three decades, endured immense suffering. Some people were without food for days as markets and shops were submerged. It took these communities a little over two months to recover.
Prior to this, according to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) data, cloudbursts occurred in Rangpur in July 2020 when about 447 millimetres of rainfall were recorded in those areas within just 12 hours, from the night of September 26 until the next morning. This was the highest in the past 70 years.
Sylhet was also hit by cloudbursts on June 18, 2022, as 304 millimetres of rainfall nearly flooded the whole city. As 1,004 millimetres of rainfall had occurred in Meghalaya, India, upstream of Sylhet the previous night, water from there, along with heavy rainfall, submerged 80 per cent of the area in Sylhet and Sunamganj.
Undoubtedly, the frequency of such incidents is likely to increase in the coming years in Bangladesh. One can only imagine the devastation that will be caused if these incidents occur in the densely populated Chittagong Hill Tracts region or in Cox's Bazar, where Rohingya refugees are living in crowded camps on and near the base of mountains.
The dreadful fact is that cloudbursts cannot be predicted, nor can their likely location be determined.
Feasible solutions include more research and studies on such events, conducted by concerned departments like the BMD and the ministries of Disaster Management and Relief, Water Resources, and Environment, Forest and Climate Change.
Precautions can be taken against such events. Concerned authorities should put in their best to convince people against building homes right next to rivers, mountains and valleys. Evacuation procedures can be put in place when heavy rain is forecast. Emergency kits and precautionary measures should be provided to all communities that are at risk of facing such events.
Afforestation is also recommended by scientists, as the process can reduce surface runoff and enhance water absorption. Regular clearing and widening of riverbanks and drainage channels are also recommended.
Syed Tashfin Chowdhury is a communications professional. tashfinster@gmail.com
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