Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. The historically unprecedented flood of August, 2024 has reminded us that the effects of climate change are unpredictable and devastating for the lives and livelihoods of millions of Bangladeshis. In addition to the direct effects on the economy, infrastructure, health and food security, the complications caused by climate change include tensions in international relations. Climate change does not recognise international boundaries, as has been made evident from the recent experience of the floods of August. This has revealed the emergence of a new reality- the need for a climate change dimension in regional cooperation. This should be the perspective of Bangladesh in the coming COP 29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Till date, the international focus of climate change mitigation has been on emission reduction, and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments of developing countries include a conditional level for emission reduction, which is contingent on investment from developed nations to increase the renewable and clean energy capacities of developing countries, and thus reduce their greenhouse gas emission levels. However, countries like Bangladesh have comparatively very low levels of emissions, while suffering a disproportionate share of the effects of global warming.
Fossil fuel power plant projects in Bangladesh have long been rife with financial irregularities, and are currently operating below capacity, due to the lack of fossil fuel supply. This lack of fuel keeps these plants idle, and prevents them from serving efficiently as baseload or peaking power plants, even if we consider that some surplus capacity is needed as reserve capacity. This lower level of generation is coupled with high costs arising from capacity payments for idle power plants and overdue payments for fuels, which puts pressure on the reserves of the country, and forces the country to seek international financial support with onerous restrictive covenants. In contrast, renewable energy technologies have achieved grid parity in Bangladesh, and are favoured to play a bigger role in the future energy mix of the country. Renewable energy is not dependent on import of fuels, nor is affected by depleting domestic reserves.
The adverse effects of climate change include rising sea levels, coastal soil salinity, extreme floods and droughts, unpredictable weather patterns, desertification, increasing wildfires, more intense storms, and changing seasonal patterns. Bangladesh has seen evidence of most of these climate change effects. These affect the ecosystem of the country, and thus increase challenges for the population. There is the loss of lives and property as a result of floods and cyclones. The change in soil quality affects crop yield and livestock health. Food security and potable water availability are affected as a result, especially for people of coastal areas, flood prone areas and drought prone regions of Bangladesh.
Climate disasters have been known to affect regions straddling neighboring countries, with implications for regional cooperation. Climate change has led to conflict in the Sahel region of Africa over decreasing amounts of arable land and resources, and cross border migration. Climate change is affecting the freshwater resources of the Nile River, and increasing competition among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over water resources. Bangladesh is no exception, as it shares cross-border river systems with neighboring countries, where climate change has increased variability in drought and floods. Mitigation and adaptation requires collaboration with the neighbours over water resource sharing and flood management projects.
It has been estimated that the rural people of Bangladesh have been annually spending US$ 2 billion in repairing damages caused by climate change related events, which is twice the amount provided by the government, and twelve times the amount obtained from international donors. In the wake of the August 2024 floods, the new interim government of Bangladesh has sought international funds of US$ 300 million for flood relief alone. However, the chain of events that lead to climate disasters can be partially controlled or mitigated in some of the steps, especially in case of drought and flood management. This can include improved weather forecasting, early warning systems for storms and floods as well as dry spells, and cross border coordination with respect to the flow of water in transnational rivers and the operations of upstream hydroelectric dams.
In 2009, wealthy nations committed to contributing US$ 100 billion per year to help poorer countries adapt to climate change impacts, but have fallen short of this goal. However, the cumulative losses to the population and government of Bangladesh warrant the exploration of alternative sources of financing, including financing for infrastructure. It has been estimated that a project to manage the Teesta river basin can cost US$ 1 billion, which is a fraction of the cumulative losses that accrue in the northeast region of Bangladesh over the years due to floods and droughts. This project is similar in expense to urban infrastructure projects like the Dhaka metro rail. However, it can contribute more to saving the livelihoods and properties of tens of millions, and preventing climate disaster induced migration to urban centres, while creating local economic opportunities. Similar projects can be explored for flood prone areas in Sylhet as well as cyclone prone coastal regions of the country.
Considering the increasing urgency of the effects of climate change, Bangladesh should be well prepared to pursue every opportunity for mitigation and adaptation in the upcoming COP 29 conference in Baku in November 2024. The event can be a forum for the determination of loss and damage funds, as well as an opportunity for the exploration of alternative financing for infrastructure development, technical assistance and diplomatic collaboration.
Md Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury is Director, Centre for Energy Research, United International University. [email protected]
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