Cop29 and its multiple dimensions

Climatologists, environmentalists, geo-strategists and analysts have all followed the evolving aspects pertaining to climate change and vulnerability during the COP29 Conference held recently in Baku, Azerbaijan. As expected, there were differing views about how climate change and associated financial measures need to be adopted.

The world climate situation has led to the issue of a red alert by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) through their latest "State of the Climate 2024 Update" report. It has revealed two interesting aspects-- (a) that the year 2024 is on track to be the warmest year, and that (b) this decade, 2015-2024 will be the warmest ten years on record.

Observation of nine months (January-September) of 2024 indicated that global temperature is 1.54°c above the pre-industrial average. This means global temperature has crossed the Paris Agreement threshold, which sets the goal to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree celsius above pre-industrial level. However, it has also been reaffirmed that in the long run, that goal can be achieved if emissions are cut down drastically.

The WMO report says, "one or more individual years exceeding 1.5°c does not necessarily mean that pursuing effort to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°c above pre-industrial level as stated in the Paris Agreement is out of reach."

Apparently, concentrations of the three key greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere had already reached record high levels in 2023. Real-time data indicate that they have continued to rise in 2024. Now, according to WMO atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide are 151 per cent, 265 per cent and 124 per cent respectively, of pre-industrial levels.

According to the WMO, ocean warming is also continuing. Preliminary data from the early months of 2024 indicate that ocean heat content this year has continued at levels comparable to those seen in 2023. In this regard, attention has been drawn also to another dimension. In 2023, the ocean apparently absorbed around 3.1 million terawatt-hours (TWh) of heat, which is more than 18 times the world's total energy consumption. This has its own effect (as water warms, it expands), and thermal expansion, combined with the glaciers and ice sheets melting, contributes to sea level rise.

From 2014-2023, global mean sea level rose at a rate of 4.77 mm (millimeters) per year, which is more than double the rate from 1993-2002; at that time, it was 2.13 mm per year. Another contributing factor to the sea level rise is glacier loss and in 2023, glaciers lost a record 1.2-meter water equivalent of ice-that's approximately five times as much water as there is in the Dead Sea. All these changes are seen in different parts of the world in the form of extreme weather events, from hurricanes to massive flash floods. We have already seen how climate variability has affected Bangladesh socially and economically with storms and flooding in the recent past.

Environmental analyst Umar Manzoor Shah has reported about certain observations made by Riad Meddeb, Director of the Sustainable Energy Hub at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) which stressed the urgency of finding innovative financial solutions during COP29. Unfortunately, not much appears to have been agreed to by the participants with regard to climate action in developing and least-developed nations.

In this context, R. Meddeb also underlined the need for developing sustainable financing mechanisms for countries that struggle with debt. Many nations in the global South are facing significant financial burdens, and accelerating their energy transitions requires resources that may be challenging to secure within their existing economic constraints. Meddeb also stressed the need for concrete financial schemes that can attract private sector investments to supplement international climate funding.

It is clear that we need to attach more importance with regard to changing the Paris Agreement's commitments from paper to practice, especially regarding emission reductions by developed nations. One needs to understand that developed countries have a moral obligation to reduce their carbon footprints, given their historical contribution to climate change and their financial capacity. This requires accelerated implementation. We have to start moving the wheel.

At this juncture one needs to remember that the Loss and Damage Fund as a critical mechanism was set up at COP28, as a possible measure towards the creation of financial response towards climate adaptation and mitigation. It is understood that the Fund has already gathered around US Dollar 700 million. This obviously is not enough, but such initial success of fund mobilisation needs to be taken forward by the developed countries. Unfortunately, that is not happening.

Money was a central focus of the COP29 climate talks and the success of the meeting is being judged on whether nations could agree on a new target for how much richer nations, development lenders and the private sector can provide each year to developing countries to finance climate action. There has also been emphasis that such financial support should not be in the form of loans but grants.

Against this backdrop, one needs to remember that to address the current environmental degradation, the world needs to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by the late 2030s, not 2050. This is an unambiguous reminder that we are running out of time. It is also sad to see ongoing political inertia, funding crisis and refusals, as well as continued resistance from major polluters. This is not only threatening our planet but disproportionately impacting countries like Bangladesh.

One of the most striking moments at COP29 came from Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis, who pointed to how vast financial resources are mobilised for military conflicts while affluent nations remain reluctant to address the existential threat of climate change. His criticism was particularly touching when we consider the environmental toll of war. These realities underline the irony of a world that can finance war but struggles to do the bare minimum to prevent climate variability effects..

Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus's message at COP29, calling for a "zero waste" world and an economic model that reduces consumption, also reverberated powerfully. He expressed frustration with the climate finance negotiations, calling it "humiliating" for vulnerable nations to beg for financial assistance. Yunus also argued that these nations, which have contributed the least to global warming, should not be put in a position where they must plead for help, while wealthier nations that have contributed the most to climate warming continue to evade their obligations.

In this regard, environmentalists have reiterated that achieving carbon neutrality is not a negotiable goal. It is essential for the survival of nations like Bangladesh. As the world approaches critical climate thresholds, we must push for stronger global response, and ensure that the wealthiest nations do not hesitate to deliver on their commitments on emissions and climate financing.

Azerbaijan President I. Aliyev, referring to fossil fuels as a "gift of God for any country, claimed that oil and gas like gold, silver and copper were natural resources and countries should not be blamed for having them or for bringing these resources to the market, as the market needs them". The Azerbaijani President's comments helped to derail talks on subtle areas behind the scenes which were largely about getting more cash for poorer countries to help implement their climate plans.

Analysts have suggested that such an observation reduced the chances of developing nations being able to persuade richer countries involved with using fossil fuel to agree together in the creation of a Fund that could add up to US Dollar 1 trillion, using public and private money.

There was another sorry dimension. Leaders of most of the world's biggest polluters were not present in Baku, including US President Biden, China's Xi Jinping, France's leader Emmanuel Macron and India's Narendra Modi. Just a handful of leaders from rich G 20 countries, which account for nearly 80 per cent of the world's planet heating emissions, were present.

Climate change and its impact on public health also did not come up as an important item for discussion in COP 29. Understanding the gap, more than 100 organisations from across the international health and climate community came together as the Global Climate and Health Alliance to persuade wealthy countries to protect people's health by committing to provide climate finance as part of the financial commitment of a trillion dollars annually, in addition to global action with leadership from the highest emitting countries to end the fossil fuel era. They also endorsed nine recommendations for the COP 29 Summit through a policy brief- "A COP 29 for People and Planet" which included financing towards community engagement.

Some negotiators said the latest text on finance was too long to work with, and they were waiting for a slimmed-down version before talks to hammer out a deal could begin. This view was bolstered with the fact that any deal was likely to be hard fought given the reluctance among many Western governments to contribute since the Paris Agreement in 2015. They want more countries including China to agree to join them. The likely withdrawal of the United States from any future funding deal by incoming President Donald Trump also overshadowed talks, raising pressure on other countries to find other ways to secure the needed funds.

Among them are the world's multilateral development banks including the World Bank. A group of 10 of the largest banks have also already flagged a plan to ramp up their climate finance by roughly 60 per cent to $120 billion a year by 2030, with at least an extra $65 billion from the private sector. A push to raise fresh money by taxing polluting sectors such as aviation, fossil fuels and shipping, or financial transactions, has received a boost from more countries, but any agreement was unlikely this time around.

Despite all their efforts, it is doubtful if all the participants have been able to initiate a meaningful journey.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.

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