Crimea's history of conflict, future with Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Crimea to mark the ninth anniversary of the Black Sea peninsula's annexation from Ukraine on March 18, 2023. Incidentally, March 30, 2023, also marked the 167th anniversary of the Crimean War between the Russians and the Ottomans. The Crimean War was the decisive factor for rule over Crimea in the 19th century. The Ottomans regained Crimea receiving the support of France and the United Kingdom (UK).

HISTORY: From the end of the 18th century, throughout the period of the Romanov Empire and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR), Crimea was settled by Russians, and during Soviet times also by Ukrainians, especially after 1954.

In the mid-19th century, Crimea was the subject of a conflict for dominance in the Black Sea basin. Crimea has changed hands many times, falling under Russian rule for a relatively short time. In 1774, with the Ottoman Empire lost to Russia in the Russo-Turkish War, and relinquished authority over Crimea. It formally became independent for nine years before being annexed in 1783 by Catherine the Great bringing the entire peninsula under the Russian Empire. For Moscow, owning Crimea was like opening a geopolitical window to the south, and from there to the whole world. Without it, Russia only had access to the globe's northern waters, which froze in winter.

After World War I, as the old imperial structures were falling apart, Crimea was already on the map as part of Ukraine. By 1921, however, Ukraine became part of the Soviet Union, as did Crimea, as an autonomous republic. In 1954, Soviets transferred the peninsula to the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Crimea remained part of Ukraine. Due to its specific nature, the Crimean Peninsula was granted autonomy within the Ukrainian state in 1992, helping to blunt separatist demands to join Russia.

STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE: Crimea's annexation pushed up President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings to 88 per cent. Historically, Crimea was important because it provided a unique strategic position on the Black Sea. That has not changed. Crimea is still like an unsinkable aircraft carrier on the Black Sea. Dominance on the peninsula enables control throughout the sea and circuitously in the territories surrounding it. The Crimean peninsula has vast offshore oil and gas resources (estimated reserves are between 4-13 trillion cm of natural gas) in the Black Sea. Ukraine holds Europe's third largest shale gas reserves. Russia, since 2014, has entrusted Gazprom to manage the peninsula's energy resources.

After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow sought to guarantee its influence in the Black Sea through an agreement with Kyiv, a deal which regulated the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Sevastopol (a major port on the Black Sea) in Ukrainian Crimea became the most important harbour offering Russia the opportunity to operate strategically at sea. The last extension of the agreement by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, in 2010, was criticised by Ukranian opposition.

PAST EVENTS: In the eyes of the world, international law was violated as the Russians forcibly changed borders and annexed Crimea. This was not the first such case in the post-Soviet period. in 2008, for example, Moscow occupied part of Georgia. But the seizure of Crimea was the most spectacular, given the importance of the peninsula. A range of complexities and factors allowed Russia to occupy the peninsula with ease. These include the makeup of the Crimean population, the weakness of Ukraine's army, the presence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and political chaos in Kyiv among others.

The Kremlin spent tens of billions of dollars on infrastructure projects in Crimea such as the $3.7bn, 19 kilometre-long bridge linking the peninsula to mainland Russia. It spent lavishly on new highways and hospitals, power plants, transmission lines and subsidies for Crimea's rapidly swelling population of more than 2.5 million. Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after the annexation cost Russian corporations on average more than 100 billion, or about 4.2 per cent of Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year, according to a study by former top economists at the US Department of State. Other analysts, however, dispute the number. "Direct losses are minuscule," Ukrainian analyst Aleksey Kushch said adding that the sanctions resulted in the loss of just one per cent of Russia's GDP.

PRESENT SITUATION: It has been nine years since Russia annexed Crimea and has taken control of over 15 per cent of the country since the start of the Moscow-Kyiv war. A part of Russia's offensive as part of its "special military operation" in Ukraine was launched through Crimea. The war has led to the organisation of referendums similar to that previously held in Crimea in Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, later resulting in their annexation by Moscow. Since then, Russia has withdrawn to the left bank of the Dnieper River, leaving the administrative centre of the Kherson region, but continues to control a direct land connection to Crimea. Kherson, located in the north of the Crimean Peninsula, is of great importance for Crimea, where water shortages were experienced after its annexation due to its water resources. Meanwhile, about 70 per cent of the Zaporizhzhia region, where there is still intense conflict, is under the control of Russian forces, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are key for Russia in maintaining a road connection with Crimea through the Donbas region.

The economic prosperity in Crimea promised by the Russian authorities has not happened. The most attractive promise of Russians about salary increases in Crimea statistically has been realised. The increase in wages and pensions did not last long as the increase in food prices and ruble depreciation affected the consumer opportunities of the Crimean population. Since Crimean annexation, Russia has substantially increased expenditures on social sector and infrastructure, and local authorities have stated about sustainable economic growth.

FUTURE PLAN: Russia's strategic objective of socio-economic development of Crimea to 2030 has formed the basis for the vision of the newly annexed region. The adopted strategy aims to form the modern engineering, transport, and social infrastructure, and to ensure "all-inclusive" sustainable development. However, the peninsula remains politically, physically and economically isolated.

It is also expected that Russia will claim large parts not just of Crimea's, but also of Ukraine's continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which may complicate the division of the Black Sea continental shelf and EEZs with Romania and Turkey. Ukraine is now concerned about losing one of the two largest shale gas fields in the Donetsk and Kharkiv 'oblasts' or regions. The new regional separatism of its eastern regions also undermines Kiev's plan to switch from gas to coal, due to its losing 45.6 per cent of its national coal reserves.

CONCLUSION: Crimea has become a "gray zone" in terms of international law and the observation of international organizations. Annexed by Russia in 2014, Crimea has a historical, cultural, and emotional significance for the Kremlin. "In the hearts and minds of people, Crimea has always been and remains an inseparable part of Russia," explained Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2014.

It is also impossible to ignore the fact that the overwhelming majority of the population in Crimea are Russian. Today, the total population of Crimea is 2.5 million people, of which almost 1.5 million are Russians, 350,000 are Ukrainians who predominantly consider Russian their native language and about 300,000 are Crimean Tatars.

The territories that Russia focuses on controlling in Ukraine since the war also indicates that Russia is mostly ensuring a strong buffer and connectivity for Crimean Peninsula as a sustainable annexed region. Irrespective of what the outcome of the Ukraine war is, Moscow is determined to hold on to Crimea at any cost. This is further reinforced by the statement of the head of Sevastopol's Civic Chamber - a global nuclear war will "immediately" break out should any attempt be made to return Crimea to Ukrainian control. So, irrespective of the Ukraine war outcome, Russia is determined on keeping Crimea for itself.

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