In 2014, the ‘Neighborhood First’ policy of India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, embarked with the hope and ambitious objective to redraw the geopolitical matrix of South Asia. It was a dream based on cooperation, trust, and shared prosperity aimed at placing India as not just a hegemonic but a responsible partner in the collective growth of its neighbors. Then came the year 2024, with its unpredictable political and economic turbulence sweeping the region, Bangladesh, Nepal, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and beyond, has placed critical tests on the resilience of this policy and its relevance.
It is with the theories of hegemony and political science, in addition to fathoming how a rejuvenated regional body like South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) might act as a harbinger of hope, that we will understand the apparent failure of the policy to perform and plot its future course. The present analysis aims to unravel the layers of complexity that define South Asia today and looks for ways to strengthen regional bonds in the face of challenges that are growing by the day.
Theoretical Framework: The Neighborhood First policy of India can be contextualised within the hegemony theory of Antonio Gramsci, wherein he propounded that dominant powers maintain their control through a mix of coercion and consent. In the South Asian context, regional leadership of India has been a two-edged sword. While its economic and military pre-eminence offers the possibility of regional integration, the perceived imposition of interests often alienates smaller neighbours. This is compounded by the various realist theories of international relations that emphasise competition in an anarchic world order. The dominance of India thus creates unease on the part of many smaller South Asian states that, as a counterstrategy, have sought out alliances, many of which are increasingly aligned with China.
John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism offers further insights, suggesting that rising powers like China will inevitably challenge the status quo, forcing regional hegemonies like India to adapt or risk losing influence. This is evident in the growing Chinese presence in South Asia, from infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to increased political and economic ties with India’s neighbours.
A Relationship at the Crossroads: The fall of the government of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 marked a turning point in the course of India-Bangladesh relations. What was hailed once upon a time as one of the most promising bilateral relationships within South Asia has come to be consumed by distrust, political sensitivities, and a play of domestic and regional factors. The degrading level of mutual trust showcases how even very settled alliances could have their legacy lost in an increasingly geopolitically turbulent world.
The Fallout of Leadership Change. Sheikh Hasina, who played a significant role in the development of close relations with India, had given a stable platform for cooperation. Her absence has created a void, and anti-India feelings are fast catching up within Bangladesh. India’s accusations against the interim government for failing to protect minorities have not only strained diplomatic ties but have also disrupted a key pillar of the relationship: trade. The 28% reduction in India’s exports to Bangladesh in August 2024, compared to the same month a year ago, underscores the tangible economic consequences of this political fallout.
This development fits with Kenneth Waltz’s structural realism, cantered on how systemic pressures and domestic instabilities in the smaller states can disrupt regional hierarchies. Internal political turmoil has provided a fertile breeding ground for anti-India forces in Bangladesh, and according to Professor Sanjay Bhardwaj, it is now trying to use alliances with extra-regional powers like China and Pakistan for a balance of power against India.
Growing Anti-India Sentiment. The situation is further exacerbated by the refusal of India to comply with the request of the interim Bangladeshi government for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina to face an International Criminal Tribunal. This act has been perceived as an affront to the sovereignty and judiciary system of the Bangladeshi government, and public opinion has been inflamed-very much amongst the youth. This has been seen by an overwhelming majority in Bangladesh as an affront to the dignity of their nation and has encouraged anti-India sentiments not seen since the 1970s.
Misinformation’s Role. Adding fuel to the fire is the role of Indian “Godi media”, which are generally perceived in Bangladesh as being on sponsorship and encouragement from the Indian government. Deliberate misinformation and disinformation campaigns-especially those portraying Bangladesh as a country suppressing its minorities-have acted like gasoline on an already volatile relationship. To many Bangladeshis, all this smells not only of injustice but also of a calculated move to undermine their national integrity.
As Edward Said had noticed, “Exile is more than a geographical concept. You can be exiled in your homeland, in your own house, in a room full of people.” This feeling resonates in Bangladesh, which politically and culturally feels alienated by India’s lack of respect for sovereignty and values. Growing discontent brought Bangladesh closer to Pakistan and China regarding foreign policy alignments and made it all the more complex for India to get its regional calculus complete.
The Threat to Regional Stability. Ravinder Sachdeva aptly warns, “The absence of Sheikh Hasina could be a turning point, enabling insurgents to destabilise India’s north-eastern states.” The consequence of weaker India-Bangladesh relations goes well beyond the realm of a bilateral relationship and assumes larger proportions of a threat to regional stability. Insurgent groups in Northeast India might utilize the vacuum in cooperation to their advantage for consolidating their positions, thereby adding one more dimension to India’s internal security challenges.
Restoring Trust: Growing tensions between both countries now require a conscious effort on the part of both countries to restore the elements of trust through dialogue, transparency, and mutual respect. Being the bigger power, the greater stake for showing goodwill and restraint lies with India, upholding the philosophy so succinctly enunciated by Mahatma Gandhi: “You may never know what results come of your actions, but if you do nothing, there will be no result.” Concrete steps could include: (1) Recalibrating Media Narratives. Curb misinformation and promote balanced reporting to prevent further alienation of the Bangladeshi public. (2) Economic Engagement. Revitalise trade and investment partnerships to create shared economic interests that transcend political differences. (3) Diplomatic Outreach. Strengthen backchannel diplomacy to address contentious issues like the extradition of Sheikh Hasina without escalating public rhetoric. (4) Cultural Exchange. Promote people-to-people ties, particularly among youth, to counteract growing anti-India sentiments.
A Fragile Balance. At the tipping point in the relationship between India and Bangladesh, one is reminded of the tenuous underpinning that is regional diplomacy. To borrow from Henry Kissinger, “The absence of alternatives clears the mind marvelously.” For both countries, the alternatives to cooperation-economic stagnation, regional instability, and the rise of competing powers-are stark. A renewed commitment to mutual understanding and respect is not only desirable but essential to save the promise of South Asian unity.
Pakistan - An Endless Stalemate: The India-Pakistan relations remain caught in an upward spiral of hostility, with cross-border terrorism and propaganda taking centre-stage. Where minimal diplomatic engagements such as participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit indicate the intent for stability, fundamentals have remained unresolved. As Mearsheimer would explain: “Conflict is inevitable when states prioritize relative power over absolute gains,” a dictum which continues to define this troubled relationship.
Nepal- On the High Wire: Nepal’s tilt towards China, marked by its adoption of the revised framework of the BRI, underlines the limitations of India’s hegemonic approach. Despite historic cultural and economic ties, grievances related to past events, such as the alleged blockade in 2015, and territorial disputes remain. As Gramsci noted, hegemony depends on securing consent, not coercion-a lesson India needs to learn in its engagement with Nepal.
The Maldives - A Backslide in Relations: While anti-India rhetoric only came to the fore with the election of Mohamed Muizzu in 2023, his “India Out” campaign reflects a broader regional pushback against the perceived dominance of India. According to Ravinder Sachdeva, “For the first time, India finds itself on the back foot in the Maldives, with China’s presence rapidly expanding.” This indicates the weakness of unipolarity in a multipolar region.
A Case for Strengthening SAARC: The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, much criticissed for its ineptitude, has enormous, hitherto untapped potential to recalibrate the regional dynamics of South Asia. It offers a platform to transcend bilateral rivalries, mitigate hegemonic pressures, and foster a framework of respectful multilateral cooperation. By revitalizing SAARC, South Asia could pave the way for collective prosperity and harmony, balancing power dynamics and reducing tensions among member states.
Nobel Laureate and Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Dr. Muhammad Yunus has eloquently stressed the need for strengthening SAARC to promote dignified bilateral and multilateral cooperation. He calls for principles enshrined in respect, integrity, sovereignty, honesty, and territorial integrity for engendering mutual trust among nations. Dr. Yunus has also proposed expanding Bangladesh’s diplomatic horizon by urging Malaysia and other ASEAN countries to include Bangladesh as a member thereby creating a broader coalition to alleviate Indian hegemonic pressures.
SAARC’s Role in Diluting Hegemony. The great economic and political heft of India in the region more often than not perpetuates a psyche of big brotherly domination among the smaller neighbours. This asymmetry has spurred countries such as Nepal, the Maldives, and Bangladesh to reach out for better relations with outside powers like China. A renewed SAARC can thus serve as a corrective in allowing the smaller countries a collective voice and thereby allowing them to express apprehensions sans the shadow of bilateral power asymmetries.
Henry Kissinger once said, “Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac.” This holds rather true in the South Asian context, as uncurbed dominance can alienate smaller nations, forcing them to seek alternative alliances. India, through SAARC multilateralism, has been able to turn its perceived leading role from that of domination to partnership, reassuring the countries genuinely of its commitment to stability and cooperation in the region.
Revitalization of SAARC. To unlock SAARC’s potential, member states must prioritize reforming its institutional framework and reinvigorating its objectives. Key steps include: (1). Promoting Economic Integration. Establishing regional trade agreements and connectivity projects to create interdependencies that benefit all members. (2) Enhancing Collective Security. Developing mechanisms to address shared challenges such as terrorism, climate change, and migration. (3) Fostering Equitable Representation. Ensuring smaller nations have equal opportunities to influence SAARC’s agenda and decision-making processes. (4). Engagement with External Partners.: Explore strategic collaborations with ASEAN and other regional organisations to enhance the influence and capabilities of SAARC.
A Vision for the Future: The revival of SAARC is a moral and strategic imperative for the common future of South Asia. It is a pathway to overcome fractious geopolitics that have stood in the way of progress for long in the region. In the words of Mahatma Gandhi, “The best way to find yourself is to lose yourself in the service of others.” By kindling a spirit of service and collaboration, SAARC would be able to usher in a region where mutual respect and collective progress reign supreme instead of mistrust and unilateralism.
This is an opportunity for India to reshape its role in South Asia-not as a hegemon, but as a catalyst for unity and prosperity. Strengthening SAARC will not only reduce the attraction of external powers such as China but also seal India’s position as a leading nation that believes in partnership rather than power. Let South Asia finally fulfil the promise of shared heritage and collective potential.
Key Recommendations. (1.) Economic Integration: Revitalize the trade agreements within SAARC-a mutually reinforcing interdependence among members. (2) Cultural Diplomacy. Invest in people-to-people initiatives to develop trust beyond governmental frameworks. (3) Conflict Resolution Mechanisms. Establish SAARC-led mechanisms for dispute resolution to ensure neutrality and fairness in the resolution process. (4) Inclusivity. Empower SAARC’s institutional capacity to represent the interests of all member states and foster equitable partnerships.
Way Forward: India’s Neighbourhood First policy has been ambitious but ultimately stumbled upon the inherent complexities of hegemonic relationships in a multipolar world. To use the apt expression of Thucydides, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” India’s challenge is how to go beyond this paradigm-to change from a hegemonic to a hegemonial model of leadership, where cooperation, not domination, becomes the hallmark.
A rejuvenated SAARC, based on shared prosperity and mutual respect, can thus act as a counterbalance to regional tensions and extra-regional influences. As Mahatma Gandhi said, “The best way to find yourself is to lose yourself in the service of others.” For India, true leadership in South Asia will come not with dominance but in the ability of taking confidence and unity among its neighbours to a new height.
Dr. Serajul I. Bhuiyan Professor and Former Chair, Department of Journalism and Mass Communications, Savannah State University, Georgia, USA. [email protected]
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