After five weeks of bloodshed, pain, fear and heartache, the mass uprising led by the students finally forced the autocratic government to step down as the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country to take shelter in India. The brave and indomitable students, who, amidst 'egregious killings, torture, disappearances and mass arrests' stood firm and conquered death. So, the youths are now in charge of the country, and perhaps they have reason to be hopeful for the future for the first time.
This uprising, or revolution, as many have labelled it, is a clear message from youths to those who have long held on to and abused power, not only in Bangladesh but across the world. In this connection, it is not just necessary, but urgent to move away from a culture of corruption, nepotism, abuse of power, and discrimination and thus end patriarchy, re-establish law and order, revive governance and state institutions, and stabilise the economy.
One critical step in stabilising the economy is initiating the process of negotiating and implementing a series of bilateral and regional free trade agreements (BFTA) with various trading partners.
In line with the trends and practices of our competing exporting countries like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Cambodia, China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia and others, Bangladesh has no other option but to ensure predictable and sustainable destinations of its exports in goods and services within by entering into comprehensive free trade agreements in goods and services. There is no need to negotiate or sign any preferential trade agreements (PTA) on trade in goods only. Country-specific PTAs, in general, are not cost-effective. These are also highly complex and time-consuming and mainly account for limited economic potential.
Currently, RCEP is the only mega-regional FTA that is considered ASEAN-plus. This is because fifteen countries-Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand-are involved in RCEP.
Russia-CIS (EAEU) block comprising Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan and also includes the CIS member states of Azerbaijan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as other countries beyond Eurasia's borders.
Bangladesh needs to negotiate for RECP and EAEU membership. Moreover, the option for signing an FTA with the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) should be explored. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are members of the GCC,
The European Union (EU), comprising 27 European countries, is the first economic union in the world. Though it is quite ambitious to think of signing an FTA with the EU at this moment, it is not impossible.
Bangladesh needs to seriously explore the possibility of signing bilateral FTAs with the United States (US), Canada and the United Kingdom (UK).
Non-reciprocal trade deals like GSP and multilateral and regional arrangements have been excluded from the US trade agenda, and accordingly, the US only prefers to make bilateral reciprocal trade deals. Bangladesh should, therefore, without spending time on GSP revival or the WTO framework, take a pro-active initiative in establishing a Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) with the US, following the example of Kenya and Morocco.
The terms of STIP in goods, services and investment with the US must be without prejudice to the rights and obligations under the WTO Agreements and respective international rights and obligations as agreed in Bangladesh-US TICFA.
Again, developed and developing countries like Canada, China, India, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and ASEAN are negotiating free trade agreements with the post-Brexit UK. Bangladesh should also move forward in this direction.
Regarding the much-talked-about Bangladesh-India BFTA, it would be highly risky for Bangladesh to bypass the hard-earned SAFTA and negotiate again the proposed new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India. It would be better to continue with the SAFTA terms of trade with India up to 2026, with or without an extension for three more years. After that, SAFTA terms of trade in goods and services may be applied to Bangladesh as a newly graduated developing country.
The terms of services trade as prescribed in the SAFTA Services Trade Agreement should apply on an MFN basis in mutual service trade in all four modes, subject to harmonised and mutually agreed-upon domestic regulations to be negotiated within a time-bound action matrix.
Bangladesh may also call upon trading partners to expedite reciprocal participation in services trade, including public procurements. Bangladesh has already opened its Services sector and Public Procurements to foreign participation on an MFN basis. In turn, Bangladesh should ask for reciprocal treatment from its trading partners.
Manzur Ahmed, Trade and Tariff Policy Adviser, FBCCI, 1980-2024.
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