Let there be no mistake. The world braces itself for the hard times which are ahead of it. In a few days Donald Trump will once more be President of the United States. In the perspective of American politics, it is normal for a new individual to be sworn in as the country's leading elected official and get down to setting his priorities for the four years that will follow. Trump's assumption of the presidency, after a break of four years, follows that pattern.
But then comes the question: Will this second Trump presidency be any different from the first, when the United States came up against unpredictability in the way the White House conducted business within the country and with the outside world? Trump 1.0 was marked by surprising appointments and swift dismissals of senior administration officials on Twitter. There was disturbing talk of a wall between the US and Mexico to prevent illegal immigrants making their way into what has for decades been referred to as a land of opportunity.
Given the way in which Trump carried himself in his earlier term in office and given too the incendiary statements which have come from him since he began his campaign to regain power, there is not much reason to think that his new administration will be a fresh and reformed beginning for Americans. An observation of his cabinet appointments, of men and women embracing his hardline politics, ought to be enough to convince people that the next four years will be a difficult phase for nations around the world.
And why do we say that? Trump has already pledged to penalise quite a few influential nations with tariff to the extent of 25 per cent. He has promised to go no-holds-barred into handling illegal immigrants from Mexico and other countries. His unconventional statements have provoked a furious response from Claudia Sheinbaum, the new President of Mexico. He has threatened to take back the Panama Canal from Panama. And, yes, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to resign against a background of a series of domestic woes. But do recall the humiliation he was subjected to when he recently met Trump at the latter's Mar-a-Lago residence.
It was deliberate insult Trudeau was treated to when Trump told him that Canada ought to join the US and be its 51st state. Trump cast all diplomatic conventions to the winds when he referred to the Canadian leader as the governor of Canada. Now that Trudeau will not be there, it will be for his successor to handle Trump. How effectively and assertively he or she can do it is a condition one will simply have to wait to see. And that is not the only problem the world will be up against beginning 20 January, when Trump will make a triumphant second entry into the White House. There are others. A huge issue will be the precise role Elon Musk will have in the administration.
Musk has been leaving people around the world riled with his gratuitous comments about foreign politicians and countries. He has spoken of Greenland becoming part of the United States. He has provoked an irate response from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer over his provocative views that Starmer should quit office. Musk has also attacked a British cabinet minister. He has turned his back on his friend Nigel Farage. His freewheeling unconventional behaviour has sparked condemnation from Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France. Unless Trump puts the leash on him, Musk will be an embarrassment for Washington. It will be up to the Republicans in Congress and in the Senate to persuade Trump into clamping down on Musk's behaviour.
There are other Trump-related worries which will not make the year 2025 a time of promise for the world. The war in Ukraine will continue as long as President Zelenskyy does not agree to settle for peace terms as they are placed before him by President Putin. There is then the question of how politics will play out with China, especially in relation to its role in the outside world. For Trump, China will be a priority, a hard nut to crack. President Xi Jinping is not the sort of politician who will wilt at the rise of powerful individuals to power in Washington. In the rules-based world of diplomacy, the Chinese leader will not permit the incoming US President to ride roughshod over Beijing's national priorities.
The second Trump presidency is a blessing for Benjamin Netanyahu, who will now have few compelling reasons to heed American warnings --- not that they have amounted to much in the Biden era --- on the need for a solution to the multiple crises in the Middle East. In Trump, Netanyahu will have a soulmate. Together the two men will go out of their way to intimidate Iran, perhaps going out on a limb to attempt regime change in Tehran. Military operations, obviously with support from the Trump White House, will continue to be launched by Israel in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. The danger in Damascus is that it is now in the hands of hardline Islamists. Both Trump and Netanyahu will need to be cautious that they do not push the post-Assad regime into a new phase of extremist resistance to Washington and Tel Aviv.
Away in Africa, the plight of Sudan will not end. With as many as 30 million Sudanese going hungry and without shelter owing to the internecine struggle for power by the country's army and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the world will continue to look on helplessly as Sudan is systematically destroyed. That said, there is hardly any gainsaying that Trump's return to power has been a huge boost for leaders with authoritarian tendencies everywhere. It will therefore be hard for any democratic opposition to make any dents in countries where such authoritarian regimes operate. Stretching from Europe to Africa to Asia, fans of Donald Trump will sit easy for the next four years and observe the new man in the White House casting his long and lengthening shadow over vast expanses of the world.
The world cannot but sit out the coming four years. Perhaps, just perhaps, someone called Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer or even Kamala Harris will be delivering a victory speech on the morning after the presidential election in the United States in November 2028? It is a loaded question, sure. But in four years' time America should owe it to itself to turn its back on Trumpian Republicanism and return to being a politically agile and diplomatically suave nation on the global stage.
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