The abrupt collapse of Sheikh Hasina regime has already sent shockwaves through Bangladesh's geopolitical relations, but Donald Trump’s election victory is further intensifying the country's strategic challenges. With alliances, economic interests, and regional stability at risk, the interim government must urgently redefine Bangladesh's foreign policy. This means maintaining strategic ties with India, carefully managing economic relations with China, and engaging purposefully with the United States. Navigating these relationships will require diplomatic dexterity, a strategic vision, and a deep understanding of evolving dynamics across South Asia and beyond.
Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh successfully maintained a fragile but stable balance among regional and global powers. Her administration forged a close alliance with India, which responded with robust support. The two countries collaborated on security, economic, and infrastructure projects, with Hasina taking decisive action to curb extremist threats that endangered Indian interests and tackling cross-border insurgencies. By granting India long sought transit routes through Bangladesh, Hasina strengthened India's strategic posture against northeastern secessionist movements.
Economically, Hasina's policies were heavily tilted in India's favor. Bangladesh became a major recipient of Indian investments in energy, transportation, and connectivity, while Indian businesses came to dominate much of its consumer market. Indian nationals even formed a significant portion of Bangladesh's workforce, fueling domestic discontent amid high unemployment.
Simultaneously, Hasina deepened ties with China, aligning Bangladesh with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and attracting significant investments in infrastructure and energy. China became a major trade partner and arms supplier, as Hasina carefully balanced these developments with her pro-India policies, ensuring Bangladesh benefitted from both regional giants.
However, Hasina's relations with the United States were more complex. While Bangladesh collaborated with the U.S. on trade, development, and counterterrorism, tensions frequently surfaced over governance and human rights. As Bangladesh grew in strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific -- key to countering China's influence -- Washington raised concerns about democratic backsliding and media repression. Hasina even accused the U.S. of orchestrating her downfall, claiming her refusal to host a U.S. military base on St. Martin's Island led to strained ties.
In the wake of Hasina's departure, Bangladesh faces a transformed geopolitical landscape, requiring a major recalibration of its relationships with India, China, and the U.S. The interim government must assess its economic dependence on Chinese loans, especially if debt sustainability concerns intensify. A shift away from Beijing could jeopardize critical infrastructure projects and hinder economic growth. Yet, should China see Bangladesh's political transition as a chance to expand its influence, Beijing may double down on diplomatic and financial efforts. This creates a highly unpredictable future for Chinese-Bangladeshi relations.
India's relationship with Bangladesh also faces uncertainty. The interim government may deprioritize or even reverse pro-India policies, sparking friction. Contentious issues like the Teesta River water-sharing dispute and border management could worsen. If the interim government adopts a nationalist, less India-friendly, or a pro-Pakistani approach, India may worry about rising anti-Indian sentiments, complicating security cooperation and destabilizing a once-reliable alliance.
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency adds another layer of complexity. Trump's "America First" policies -- characterized by economic protectionism, skepticism toward multilateralism, and a realignment of foreign priorities -- could profoundly impact Bangladesh. A key concern is trade. Bangladesh, heavily dependent on the U.S. market for its ready-made garments sector, could suffer if Trump reimposes tariffs, curtails benefits of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP facilities) or enforces stricter trade regulations. The textile industry's vulnerability to such policies poses a threat to economic stability and employment.
Trump's stance on climate change is another pressing challenge for Bangladesh. During his first term, he withdrew from the Paris Agreement, undermining global climate efforts. If his administration once again deprioritizes climate funding, Bangladesh, one of the world's most climate-vulnerable nations, may have to scramble for financial support. Rising sea levels, severe weather, and river erosion make international assistance crucial, and a climate-indifferent U.S. could leave Bangladesh exposed.
From a security perspective, Trump's hardline approach to China could further complicate matters for Bangladesh. If U.S.-China tensions escalate, Bangladesh may find itself caught in the crossfire, having to delicately balance its infrastructure ties with China against potential U.S. demands for alignment. Also, if US-China tensions escalate, the U.S.-India relations may strengthen further. In that case, the interim government will have to navigate increasing pressure from Washington while protecting critical strategic and economic partnerships with both Beijing and New Delhi simultaneously.
Additionally, Trump's hardline immigration policies and controversial stances on Muslim-majority countries may affect Bangladesh. Addressing the Rohingya refugee crisis, for instance, requires sustained international engagement. If a new Trump administration deprioritizes humanitarian issues, Bangladesh might struggle to secure U.S. support for the Rohingya community's needs. Bangladesh also needs to be extra careful about the human rights of the Hindu minority group, anti-Muslim groups in the U.S. may capitalize on any breach in this regard.
In conclusion, the departure of Sheikh Hasina has undeniably reshaped Bangladesh's geopolitical landscape, complicating its delicate balancing act among three critical partners: India, China, and the United States. The return of a Trump administration introduces additional economic, environmental, and security challenges, intensifying the stakes for Dhaka's foreign policy recalibration. The interim government must skillfully navigate competing priorities -- addressing India's regional security concerns, managing China's formidable economic influence, and aligning with U.S. strategic imperatives aimed at countering Beijing. Successfully charting a course through these complexities will require a nuanced and multifaceted approach, marked by skillful diplomacy and strategic foresight to steer through the turbulent geopolitical waters ahead.
Dr. Dowlah is a retired Professor of Economics and Law in the United States. Currently, he serves as the Chair and Executive Director of the Bangladesh Institute of Policy Studies (www.bipsglobal.org).
© 2025 - All Rights with The Financial Express
