Monitoring and evaluation through the lens of the theory of change

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are fundamental pillars of effective project management, especially within the realm of nonprofit and development work. These processes allow organisations to assess progress, measure outcomes, ensure accountability, and refine strategies to maximise impact. When viewed through the lens of the Theory of Change (ToC), M&E transforms into a more structured and purpose-driven approach, directly linking activities to desired long-term outcomes. This framework not only helps organisations understand whether their initiatives are working but also explains how and why change is occurring, offering valuable insights for continuous learning and adaptive management.

The Theory of Change provides a detailed roadmap that illustrates the causal pathways from a project's inputs and activities to its ultimate impact. It identifies the intermediate changes that need to occur, along with the assumptions and contextual factors that influence each stage of the process. For example, suppose an NGO is working to improve literacy rates in rural communities. In that case, the Theory of Change might outline that teacher training and curriculum development will enhance instructional quality, which in turn will lead to increased student engagement and, eventually, higher literacy rates. By explicitly mapping out these connections, the Theory of Change makes it easier to design an M&E system that captures progress at each stage of the change pathway.

Using the Theory of Change as a foundation, M&E systems can develop indicators that measure both immediate outputs and longer-term outcomes. These indicators serve as tangible markers of progress, showing whether activities are yielding the expected results and whether those results are contributing to broader social change. For instance, in the literacy project, indicators might include the number of teachers trained, the adoption of improved teaching practices, student attendance rates, and literacy test scores. Tracking these indicators over time provides a clear picture of how different elements of the project interact and influence one another.

One of the most valuable aspects of applying the Theory of Change to M&E is its ability to make assumptions explicit. Every development initiative is built on underlying beliefs about how the change will happen - for instance, assuming that providing training will lead to behaviour change or that access to resources will automatically translate into improved well-being. The Theory of Change forces organisations to articulate these assumptions and examine them critically. M&E activities can then test these assumptions, providing evidence to either validate or challenge them. If an assumption proves faulty, the organisation can adapt its approach, making necessary adjustments to improve effectiveness.

For example, suppose an NGO assumes that training farmers on sustainable agricultural practices will lead to widespread adoption of those practices, ultimately increasing crop yields and food security. However, ongoing monitoring might reveal that despite the training, many farmers are hesitant to change their methods due to cultural norms or economic risks. By identifying this gap, the organisation can dig deeper to understand the barriers to adoption and design complementary interventions, such as peer learning groups or financial incentives, to support farmers through the transition.

The Theory of Change also enhances the ability of M&E to capture complex and non-linear change processes. Development work often takes place in dynamic environments where multiple factors interact in unpredictable ways, making it difficult to attribute outcomes to specific interventions. The Theory of Change helps organisations navigate this complexity by visualising the various pathways through which change might occur and recognising the interconnectedness of different elements. This allows for the design of more flexible and adaptive M&E systems that can accommodate evolving circumstances. For instance, in a programme aimed at reducing gender-based violence, change might not follow a straightforward path. Awareness campaigns might lead to increased reporting of violence, which could initially create the impression that violence is rising rather than declining. Without a Theory of Change to contextualise this trend, the project might be deemed unsuccessful. However, suppose the Theory of Change acknowledges that increased reporting is an intermediate step toward long-term change. In that case, M&E data can be interpreted in a more nuanced way, recognising progress even when immediate outcomes seem counterintuitive.

Additionally, the Theory of Change brings a storytelling dimension to M&E, making evaluation findings more accessible and compelling. Instead of presenting isolated statistics, organisations can use the Theory of Change to narrate the journey of change, illustrating how specific activities contributed to meaningful improvements in people's lives. This storytelling approach is particularly valuable for communicating results to external stakeholders, including donors, policymakers, and community members, as it humanises the data and connects it to a broader vision of social transformation. For example, instead of simply stating that 500 youth participated in a vocational training programme, an NGO could use the Theory of Change to frame this number within a larger narrative: how the training built confidence and skills, how it connected youth to job opportunities, and how increased employment contributed to community economic resilience. By grounding evaluation data in the broader change process, organisations can more effectively demonstrate impact and inspire continued support.

Despite its many benefits, integrating the Theory of Change into M&E is not without challenges. Developing a robust Theory of Change requires time, collaboration, and deep contextual understanding. It must be treated as a living document that evolves alongside the project rather than a static blueprint. Organisations need to invest in building staff capacity to understand and apply the Theory of Change, ensuring that M&E teams are equipped to design relevant indicators, test assumptions, and interpret findings within the framework. There is also a risk of becoming overly rigid in adhering to the initial Theory of Change, which can stifle innovation or overlook emergent pathways to impact. Successful organisations strike a balance, using the Theory of Change as a guiding compass while remaining open to new learning and unexpected outcomes.

Ultimately, viewing M&E through the lens of the Theory of Change strengthens the entire project cycle. It bridges the gap between planning and implementation, ensuring that every action is tied to a larger vision of change. It fosters a culture of reflection and adaptation, where organisations continuously refine their approaches based on evidence and experience. It amplifies the impact narrative, helping stakeholders understand not just whether a project succeeded but also how and why change happened. For NGOs and development practitioners committed to creating lasting social change, the Theory of Change is not just a tool for planning - it is a dynamic framework that breathes life into the practice of monitoring and evaluation, transforming it into a powerful engine for continuous learning, strategic decision-making, and sustained impact.

Dr Matiur Rahman is a researcher and development worker. matiurrahman588@gmail.com