It has recently been revealed by geo-strategist Giorgio Cafiero that efforts are underway to generate greater security cooperation between Jordan and the West through the presence of NATO in Jordan. Other analysts have also been monitoring this development carefully given the deterioration of the situation in Gaza, the rest of Palestine, and in other countries in the Middle East.
A NATO liaison office is apparently being opened in Jordan. At a summit in Washington earlier this month, the Transatlantic Alliance released a statement saying that the development constituted "a natural progression of the longstanding relationship between NATO and Jordan" and praised the country "as a beacon of stability in both regional and global contexts".
The move has led to innumerable debates among analysts about the reasons for opening an office in Amman and the regional and global implications this will produce. It has also been suggested that this will generate its own connotations with regard to conflicts and pressures in the region. However, this step underlines the extent to which both Jordan and the West value their bilateral cooperation within the security matrix.
It appears that this development has not been a surprise for Amman. Jordan and NATO have had a deep partnership going back many years. It is being anticipated that this new Office will serve to bolster such cooperation throughout the future. Analysts in this context have highlighted that Jordan-NATO coordination has already been existing in various areas such as crisis management, counterterrorism, and cyber-security. Now, it is felt that this new measure will in all probability raise the paradigm of cooperation to higher levels in this future.
In all probability, the Jordanian Armed Forces will receive more technical support and advanced technology from NATO. For Amman, such support can prove important when it comes to countering growing threats to Jordan's national security amid a period of regional turmoil that is deteriorating geo-political unpredictability.
Commenting on this evolving scenario, Gordon Gray, the former US Ambassador to Tunisia has said, "Jordan has always had strong military ties with the West. It relied heavily on British military support in its early years, and both King Hussein and King Abdallah II studied at Sandhurst. The United States designated Jordan as a Major Non-NATO ally in 1996. It has provided Jordan with over US Dollar 31 billion in assistance since establishing diplomatic relations in 1949, and in 2022 committed to providing US Dollar 1.45 billion of aid annually through 2029."
This creates its own dimension. In this regard one also needs to remember that since the 1990s, Jordan, along with Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia, is a member of NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue (MD). Additionally, Jordan's military and NATO forces have operated together on the ground in Afghanistan and Kosovo.
It would be pertinent at this point to also refer to two interesting comments that have been made with regard to Jordan being a significant point within the Middle East paradigm.
Dr. Daoud Kuttab, a former Professor at Princeton University and the founder and former Director of the Institute of Modern Media at al-Quds University in Ramallah, has told the TNA, "The decision to open a NATO liaison office in Jordan says a lot about the fact that Jordan is a strong, reliable, and steady ally of all NATO members and even in a bipartisan way with the biggest NATO Member, the US". In addition, Dr Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, has also commented in a TNA interview that "the opening of this office in Amman speaks to the ways in which Jordan is absolutely crucial to the stability and security of the Middle East region as a whole and also serves as an invaluable hub for military and, above all, intelligence coordination between many actors that do not usually collaborate that closely. Everyone that values security and stability in the Middle East needs Jordan to be Jordan and do what Jordan does. The NATO liaison office is a perfect example of the quiet but essential functions that Jordan performs in this regard."
Wolfgang Pusztai, a senior advisor at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES), has similarly told the TNA about the significance of Jordan's support for NATO, which has taken various forms over the years. He has indicated saying, "Jordan does not only offer very high-level training facilities -- in particular through the King Abdullah II Special Operations Training Centre (KASOTC)-- but is also a valued partner in the fight against ISIS. Furthermore, Jordan might also assume a role in supporting NATO's (Training) Mission in Iraq (NMI) as something like a rear area for this mission, which is a non-combat capacity building and advisory mission. In the past, a number of 'train-the-trainer' courses for Iraqi security and military personnel have already been conducted in Jordan within the framework of NMI."
Nevertheless, geo-strategists monitoring the emerging evolving situation have queried as to why, given that the US and the rest of NATO have other close allies in the Middle East, the decision was taken by the Western Alliance to open this liaison office in Jordan as opposed to another Arab State.
Patrick Theros, the former US ambassador to Qatar has told the TNA that while noting the fact that the West maintains "equally good relations" with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, he suspects that "the other countries- Qatar, UAE and Bahrain- where NATO might have located, this did not happen because these countries do not appear to "want the attention right now". Giorgio Cafiero has indicated in this regard that Jordan, on the other hand, has always had strong military ties with the West and is viewed as a source of stability. In this regard, it has also been suggested that after nearly ten months of Israel's brutal war in Gaza there are powerful emotions being felt across the Arab world, with levels of public anger and outrage sky-high.
This existing scenario has led many to think that it would be reasonable to raise questions about how the public in other regional countries will view the NATO liaison office in Amman, especially given many comments on social media about the office's opening being related to the war in Gaza. On the other hand, some geo-political European experts have indicated that they neither believe that the Transatlantic Alliance's Liaison Office in the Jordanian capital relates to Israel's war on Gaza, nor that this Office opening in Amman will necessarily trigger much rage in Jordan or other Arab countries.
Nevertheless, there are two other dimensions pertaining to this scenario. Giorgio Cafiero has commented that firstly, one important factor to consider is that the decision to open this Office was made a few months before Hamas started its Operation on October 7, 2023. Another is that some NATO members, such as Turkey, Spain, Belgium, and Slovenia, have been highly critical of Israel's criminal conduct in Gaza since last year.
Dr Daoud Kuttab in this regard has also commented that "the anger in Jordan is first against Israel and then against the US, the UK, and Germany for being enablers of the genocide against the Palestinian people. Everyone in Jordan knows that Jordan is a Western ally, and some are learning more and more about the extent of the bases by some of those Western countries. Having a NATO office will not change much. If the solution in Gaza includes foreign troops, they are more likely to be from NATO than from any specific state because NATO is more acceptable by both sides since it includes America and Turkey at the same time. Thus, NATO forces could easily be European, American, Turkish, which will be slightly more neutral to both parties than if they were just American or British or German." This analyst has also underlined that "the opening of this office in Amman speaks to the ways in which Jordan is absolutely crucial to the stability and security of the Middle East region as a whole".
However, strategic analysts are also saying that one must not forget that this emerging scenario of NATO opening this Liaison Office in the Middle East will be carefully monitored by Iran and Russia, who also have an osmotic influence within this region. In this regard, references have been made by some pertaining to reports that revealed that Jordanians had intercepted Iran's drones as they flew over Jordanian airspace on their way to Israel. Another aspect also referred to was the fact that authorities in Amman have stopped Iranian arms from entering the West Bank via Jordan. Such action has obviously encouraged further Jordan-NATO security cooperation.
Giorgio Cafiero has commented that by opening this Liaison Office in the heart of the Arab world, NATO is sending out a message that the Western Alliance sees for itself a role that extends beyond the European continent.'
However, analysts have observed that Russia's continued presence in Syria as the war rages on in Ukraine is also proving to be another significant factor. This is persuading NATO to reinforce its commitment to maintaining longstanding security relations with the Hashemite Kingdom at a time when conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify and the West increasingly realising Jordan's importance as an ally of the US and European countries.
One needs to conclude by referring also to another significant dimension which might be overlooked. Dr. Kuttab has interestingly observed that the creation of a Liaison Office does not mean that Jordan can "enjoy some of NATO's collective defence capabilities, neither with regard to Iran, nor Russia. NATO's mutual defence clause, Article 5 of the NATO treaty, covers only NATO member states." Interesting.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
© 2024 - All Rights with The Financial Express
