In about three weeks, on November 5, 2024, Americans will head to the polls to elect the country’s 47th president. Every four years, regardless of circumstances—whether a president has been assassinated, incapacitated, or resigned—the United States (US) holds its presidential election on the first Tuesday of November. This ritual began with George Washington’s election in 1789 and has endured through numerous challenges, reinforcing the democratic foundations of the nation.
The significance of the US presidential election however extends far beyond American borders.
It is indeed a global event, keenly observed by governments, financial markets, and ordinary citizens around the world. Since the United States ascended to the role of global superpower following World War II, the impact of its presidential elections has been immense. This influence was further amplified by the decisive victory of the US in the Cold War, which cemented its position as the world’s preeminent power.
Presidents of the United States wield tremendous influence over foreign policy, military strategies, economic decisions, and global leadership. With hundreds of military bases across the globe, alliances like NATO, and leadership roles in international institutions such as the UN, the World Bank, and the IMF, the decisions made in the Oval Office affect nearly every corner of the world. Unlike traditional empires with defined geographical boundaries, the US government’s reach is limitless in its global influence.
As the world’s largest economy, any change in US economic policy—whether in the form of tariffs, sanctions, or regulatory reforms—has ripple effects across global markets. Shifts in US tax policy, for instance, can affect foreign investments, while decisions about energy policy can influence global oil prices. People around the world understand that the stakes are very high as the election results could reshape international relations, as well as global economic and political stability.
In 2024, the two candidates vying for the presidency are Republican nominee Donald Trump, a 78-year-old former president, and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, the current vice president. While Trump is a white man of German descent, 59-year-old Harris has a mixed heritage of Indian and Jamaican origin, and identifies herself as Black. Former president Barrak Obama, born of a Kenyan father and American white mother, identified himself as African-American. The U.S. Census Bureau allows individuals to self-identify their race, highlighting the evolving complexity of racial identity in America.
The U.S. is a representative democracy where presidential election is determined by the Electoral College, not by popular vote. In recent years, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton received far more popular votes than their rivals, but lost elections. As the Electoral College comprises of 538 electors, a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes to win.
Composition and voting procedures of Electoral College are intriguing. As the number of each state’s electoral vote is based on its congressional representation, larger states like California and New York, carry more weight than others. Moreover, states follow their own electoral procedures. While most states follow a ‘winner-takes-all’ approach, where the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote receives all its electoral votes, some states, like Maine and Nebraska, use the principle of proportional representation.
Then media plays a crucial role in U.S. presidential elections, with its coverage—or lack thereof—often significantly influencing outcomes. In the 2020 election, for example, the ‘Hunter Biden Laptop’ story was sidestepped by many mainstream outlets as Russian disinformation, a false claim supported by top intelligence officials. Later the laptop was confirmed to be authentic, and many believe that had it received proper media attention at the time, the election outcome might have been different.
Journalistic bias is evident in the current election cycle as well. Networks like Fox News are known for their conservative leanings, while MSNBC is recognized for its liberal stance. Both have been criticized for selectively framing stories and omitting important details to appeal to their respective audiences. Meanwhile, mainstream networks such as ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN aim for impartiality but are often perceived as leaning toward the Democratic Party.
This trend has led to a divide in viewership, with conservatives gravitating toward Fox News and liberals tuning in to a variety of left-leaning outlets. In September 2024, Fox News had the highest prime-time viewership, averaging 2.97 million viewers, while ABC, CBS, NBC, and MSNBC all trailed far behind. Liberal networks have seen a significant decline in viewership since their persistent attacks on Trump during his presidency, particularly regarding allegations of Russian collusion, which were later debunked.
Historically, print media has also shown a clear bias toward the Democratic Party. For example, The New York Times, in its 160-year history, has never endorsed a Republican presidential candidate and recently backed Kamala Harris. Likewise, since it began endorsing candidates in 1976, The Washington Post has never supported a Republican nominee for the U.S. presidency.
This pro-Democratic and anti-Republican bias in the media has influenced US politics throughout history. Of the 46 US presidencies to date, only 19 have been held by Republicans.
Additionally, trust in American media has eroded significantly. In the 1970s, 72 per cent of Americans expressed trust in the media according to Gallup polls. By 2020, that number had fallen to just 41 per cent, which implies that six out of ten Americans do not trust the media. The spread of misinformation and a lack of accountability have been often-cited reasons for this decline.
As the election draws near, much attention is now focused on seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—where the outcome is uncertain. While large states like California and New York are expected to vote Democratic and Florida is projected to vote Republican, these swing states are crucial in determining the overall result. A recent Reuters poll, conducted between September 28 to October 3, 2024, showed Harris leading in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, while Trump had leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania. The candidates were tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin.
As the election is too close to call, both Trump and Harris have been heavily campaigning in these battleground states. The latest Times/Inquirer/Siena polls, released on October 12, reveal that two states—Pennsylvania and Arizona—have now emerged as crucial battlegrounds in this race. The polls show that Harris holds a narrow 4-point lead in Pennsylvania (50 per cent to 47 percent), while Trump leads by 6 points in Arizona (51 per cent to 46 per cent). However, with both races close and within the margin of error, the outcome in these states, as well as nationwide, remains uncertain.
Although prior to election day, projections by polls provide some measures of predictability, history has repeatedly shown that polls are not always reliable. Ultimately, the next US president will be decided on November 5, 2024, when more than 150 million votes are cast. The world will have to wait until the election night to see who will occupy the Oval Office for the next four years.
Dr Dowlah is a retired Professor of Economics and Law in the United States. Currently, he serves as the Chairperson of the Bangladesh Institute of Policy Studies. (www.bipsglobal.org).
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