China warns US of its red lines

BEIJING, Oct 06 (New York Times): The soldiers run through the forest, through the surf, through smoke and flames, ready to die for the motherland. The video, one of a series that has recently appeared online in China, climaxes with the launch of nine ballistic missiles and a fiery barrage of explosions.

"If war breaks out," a chorus sings, "this is my answer."

Chinese propaganda is rarely subtle or particularly persuasive, but the torrent of bombast online and in state media in recent weeks is striking and potentially ominous.

The targets are China's main adversaries: the United States and Taiwan, which are moving closer and closer together.

The propaganda has accompanied a series of military drills in recent weeks, including the test-firing of ballistic missiles and the buzzing of Taiwan's airspace. Together, they are intended to draw stark red lines for the United States, signalling that China would not shrink from a military clash.

While the prospect of war remains remote, the militaristic tone reflects the hawkishness of the country's leader, Xi Jinping. The risk is that the propaganda could translate into more provocative actions, at a time when the relationship with the United States has sharply deteriorated.

The recent military moves in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait raise the possibility of actual clashes, intended or not.

In Washington, President Donald Trump's hospitalisation for treatment of COVID-19 has overshadowed everything else, creating the impression that his administration is in chaos and raising fears of a decision-making void.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cut short his trip to Asia this week, although he is expected to push for confronting China when he meets in Tokyo with his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan.

China is already facing pressure over Taiwan and is pressing other disputed territorial claims, from the South China Sea to the Himalayas. If China feels directly challenged on any of those fronts, Xi may not be able to back down, having primed the public for a combative stance.

One video featured a simulated airstrike on Guam, the US territory in the Pacific, with clips cribbed from two Hollywood films: "The Rock" and "The Hurt Locker."

Global Times, the voice of the Communist Party's hawks, warned recently that the United States was "playing with fire" by supporting Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of a unified China. Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, the editorial went on, would be "wiped out" if she moved against Chinese sovereignty.

"I don't think it's just bluster, and I don't think it's just about venting anger," said Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who is an expert on Taiwan and China. "I think there is growing pressure - and that Xi Jinping finds that it's useful to display that pressure."