Harris hopes hinge on female vote

ARIZONA, Nov 03 (BBC): In battleground states like Arizona and Michigan, young women are lining up to vote early. Kamala Harris is hoping they are the tide that turns the election for her.

On an abnormally warm fall morning on the University of Michigan's Ann Arbor campus, dozens of students stood in line to vote at the university's early voting centre.

Among them was Keely Ganong, a third-year student who was excited to vote for Harris. "She's just a leader that I would to look up to represent my country," she said.

"Gender equality is on the forefront of the issues," said her friend Lola Nordlinger, referencing abortion rights. "A woman's choice is something that's so personal to her, and it really should be no one else's decision."

Ms Ganong said everyone on campus is talking about voting with less than a week before election day. "Student voices are definitely going to make a difference" in the election, the 20-year-old said.

Adrianna Pete, a 24-year-old who was on campus volunteering to teach students about the democratic process, agrees: "I feel like a lot of women are rising up," she said.

These young women are, in many ways, typical Harris voters. According to a recent poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics, Harris leads amongst women 18-29 by a whopping 30 points. Amongst college students specifically, of either gender, she leads by 38 points, a recent survey from Inside Higher Ed/Generation Lab survey found.

With polls neck-and-neck both nationally and in battleground states like Michigan, Harris will be counting on these young women to show up, in big numbers, to win the election.

It's a point not lost on Hannah Brocks, 20, who waited in a long line last week to attend a packed Harris and Walz rally in Ann Arbor in a local park. She's been involved in the school's young Democrats club, knocking on doors, sending flyers and making phone calls to try to convince people to vote for Harris.

"I just like the way she talks about people in general," Ms Brocks said. "It's just so much love and empathy in the way she talks about other people."

That edge amongst young women could be amplified even more if voter turnout this election follows the same patterns as it did in 2020, when about 10 million more women voted than men, according to the Center for American Women in Politics.

Early voting exit polls show a similar breakdown this time around, with about 55% women, 45% men, according to a Politico analysis, though analysts caution we have no idea who these women have voted for.

But while much has been made of how this election is shaping up to be boys versus girls, the reality is much more complex. In that same Harvard poll, Harris's lead amongst white women under 30 was 13 points ahead of Trump, compared to a 55-point advantage amongst non-white women under 30.

When white women of all ages are surveyed, Harris's lead all but vanishes. It's a history that could be repeating - in 2016, more white women backed Trump than Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trump's lead with white women widened.

Democrats in general have had an especially tough time with white, non-college educated voters, male and female. If Harris wants to win, she'll have to not only have to get high turnout among the young women who support her, she'll have to convince some women who might not fit the mould too.