Netanyahu gambles Trump Gaza peace plan

JERUSALEM, Oct 02 (Reuters): Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's support for Donald Trump's Gaza plan is a gamble that may win back estranged allies abroad and repair his political base at home but risks a battle with coalition partners opposed to any hint of a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu, aligning himself with Trump, framed the plan as a joint effort that advances his government's goals while shifting international criticism about the war onto Hamas, which must now choose between accepting it or facing continued siege.

The move could shore up Netanyahu's support at home by ending an increasingly unpopular war and winning the release of hostages still held by the Palestinian militant group, bolstering his chances at elections due in a year's time.

But the plan's reference to a Palestinian state is likely to antagonise members of Netanyahu's governing coalition, the most right-wing in Israel's history, where ultra-nationalist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich hold outsized influence.

Nadav Shtrauchler, a former advisor to Netanyahu, called the deal a "win-win" for the prime minister, saying that it shifts all the pressure onto Hamas while easing international scrutiny of Israel, and leaves coalition critics with no alternative.

"For him, it's checkmate. It's a very strong move," he said, that could see Netanyahu enter the next election with the hostages released and Israel's push to expand ties with Arab and Muslim nations, a process derailed by the war in Gaza, revived.

Trump's proposal, quickly endorsed by leaders across the Arab and Muslim world, asks little of Israel in the short term.

Instead, it puts all the pressure on Hamas, demanding the freedom for all of the remaining hostages and the surrender of its weapons as a precondition for ending Israel's siege of Gaza.

Israel's military would remain in Gaza for now, pulling back to positions along the border only once an international force assumes control. Netanyahu, who has insisted that Israel must retain overall security control after the war, said on Tuesday the military would stay in most of Gaza but offered no timeline.

In a lengthy post on X on Tuesday, Smotrich, who has openly called for Israel's Gaza campaign to continue, denounced Trump's plan, arguing it would trade "real achievements on the ground for political illusions". His Religious Zionism party holds seven of the Knesset's 120 seats, though recent polls indicate that he would struggle to win any if elections were held today.

Israel's war in Gaza, launched in response to Hamas' October 2023 surprise attack, has lost support among much of the public. A survey published on Tuesday by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute found that 66 percent of Israelis believe that it is time to end the war, including 48.5 percent on the political right.

Eran Lerman, a former deputy national security adviser, said that Netanyahu knows Hamas' acceptance of Trump's plan could shatter his ruling coalition, but may still hope to be able to face voters with "a very different perspective on what happened over the last two years" than he would able to present today.