Bangladesh has made substantial progress in poverty reduction and human development. The achievements in MDGs got acclamation worldwide. The improvement in the social sector is much more ostensible than the economic one. The poverty rate fell to 23.5 per cent in 2016 from 56.7 per cent in 1991-92. In addition, the rate of extreme poverty declined to 12.1 per cent from 41 per cent in the benchmark period. The GDP per person employed also registered a considerably high growth of 3.9 per cent, well above the rate of South Asia (3.5 per cent) during the 2011-2014 period. The country has been able to cut down the population growth rate to 1.37 per cent whereas life expectancy went up to around 72 years from 56.6 years in 1990. Bangladesh has been accorded awards for achievements in MDG-1, MDG-3, MDG-4 and MDG-5 from different UN organisations. With regard to MDG-4, under-5 mortality has dropped to 36 per 1000 live births from 151 from the MDG base period. A similar case is with the infant mortality rate which fell to 29 per 1000 live births from 94 in 1990. The target for total fertility rate has also been met by reducing it to 2.1.The success of MDGs does not necessarily guarantee the same in SDGs because SDGs are more aspirational, broader and cover almost all aspects of humanity. The government of Bangladesh has started initiatives at the early stage to realise the targets of SDGs. The paper attempts to illustrate the success of MDGs considering it as a base to start with, identify factors that contributed to the achievements, highlight the initiatives that the government has undertaken, and expose challenges in attaining SDGs.
Poverty outcome: Bangladesh has been successful in achieving significant reduction in poverty since. The national poverty headcount declined from 56.7 per cent in 1991-92 to 23.5 per cent in 2016, while extreme poverty rate declined from 41 to 12.1 per cent over the same period. The commendable progress in respect of eradication of poverty was possible due to the relatively inclusive growth pattern and robust sustained growth in GDP that was accompanied by gradual transformation of the sectoral composition of the GDP culminating in a greater share of manufacturing and services sectors and a declining share of agriculture. The country experienced a steady economic growth in each subsequent decade from 4.0 per cent in the 1980s to 6.0 per cent in 2010s and the growth reached 7.0 per cent for the first time in the history of Bangladesh in 2016. Over the last two and half decades, per capita income almost quadrupled, which is currently US$ 1602. The structure of the economy also witnessed a steady change from agrarian-based to a service-oriented economy although massive industrialization has always been a priority while nurturing the agriculture to meet the domestic need. Industry now contributes to 30 per cent of GDP, which was well below15 per cent in the mid-1970s.
An important component of the anti-poverty strategy of the government is providing social safety nets to address poverty and vulnerability of people. The present government, for the first time, has formulated a comprehensive National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) to provide support to its citizens who need it most. Distressed people particularly women, children, old age and disabled persons have been given priority under the NSSS. Safety net coverage was 13 per cent of the population until 2008, which increased to 27.80 in 2016. The budgetary allocation also increased from 1.9 per cent of GDP in FY 09 to 2.3 per cent in FY 16. The allocation for Annual Development Programme (ADP), which is the main public investment window to reduce poverty, was 3.2 per cent of GDP in FY 09 and has been increased to 5.7 per cent of GDP in FY17. Moreover, half the total budget expenditure has been related to poverty reduction for the last eight years.
Hunger and nutrition outcome: Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 (BBS, 2011) shows that overall calorie intake per capita per day significantly increased to 2,318.3 kcal in 2010 from 2,238.5 kcal in 2005 reversing the general decreasing trend found in previous surveys. Significant increase of per capita per day calorie intake might be due to the gradually changing food habit of people as well as the increase in overall quantity of food consumption and increasing food diversity. Nearly two-thirds (66 per cent) of Bangladesh's children under-five years of age were underweight in 1990. Recently-conducted Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2014 of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare found underweight of under-five children as 32.6 per cent. Increased literacy of women (68.9 per cent), reduction of fertility rate (2.1), enhanced measles vaccination coverage (82 per cent), smaller family size (4.5 persons per household), spread of vitamin A supplementation coverage (74.8 per cent), increased food production (35 million tonnes of rice) and energy intake (per capita electricity consumption 285 kwh) have been the causes contributing to the success.
Health outcome: Since independence, Bangladesh has made significant progress in health outcomes. Life expectancy at birth has increased considerably (72 years). Infant and child mortality rates have been markedly reduced. The under-five mortality rate in Bangladesh declined from 151 deaths per thousand live births in 1990 to 36 in 2015 and during the same period the infant mortality rate reduced from 94 deaths per 1000 live births to 29. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) also reduced from 67/1000 in 1990 to 20 in 2015. The Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) coverage evaluation survey 2015 reveals that 82.5 per cent children were fully vaccinated against only 2.0 per cent in 1985. The maternal mortality ratio reduced from 472/100,000 live births in 1991 to 181 in 2015. Deliveries attended by skilled health personnel (SHPs) increased from only 5.0 per cent in 1991 to 42 per cent in 2014. The prevalence of malaria dropped from 442/100,000 in 2005 to 434 in 2014.
With regard to Maternal Mortality Ratio, globally, the MMR declined by 47 per cent over the past two decades, from 400 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 210 in 2010 (South Asia 64 per cent). Bangladesh has made enormous advances in basic population and health indicators, which are now at par with, or better than, its neighbours who have higher per capita income. Bangladesh's health gains have been made with relatively low total health expenditure when compared regionally, though per capita health expenditure recently increased from US$ 16 in 2007 to US$ 37 in 2015. Compared with other countries in the region, Bangladesh has the longest life expectancy for men and women, the lowest total fertility rate and the lowest infant, under-5, and maternal mortality rates. Between 1990 and 2016, life expectancy increased from 56.6 years to 72 years. There has been a dramatic decrease in total fertility among women aged 15-49 years. Bangladesh did fairly well compared to the other South Asian countries except the Maldives and Sri Lanka in terms of reducing under-five mortality and infant mortality and increased immunisation. In terms of maternal mortality ratio and births attended by health personnel, the performance of the country was encouraging in the country's own perspective having an initial low base, but relatively poor in comparison to other countries.
Primary education outcome: Significant progress was made in increasing equitable access to education in 2015 (NER: 97.9 per cent; girls: 98.8 per cent, boys: 96.6 per cent), reduction of dropouts, improvement in completion of the cycle, and implementation of a number of quality enhancement measures in primary education. Initiatives have been taken to introduce pre-school education to prepare the children for formal schooling. The primary school grade-5 survival rate in 2015 was 81.3 per cent which indicates a modest increase from 43 per cent in 1991.
Bangladesh ranks very high in terms of the net enrolment ratio of primary education which indicates its better performance compared with Pakistan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan (higher than the average of the developing regions). Bangladesh also ranks very high in terms of the percentage of pupils starting grade-1 who reach the last grade of primary which shows its better performance compared to India, Pakistan, Nepal and Cambodia. Bangladesh is only ahead of Pakistan in school completion rate. In case of literacy rate of 15-24 year olds, Bangladesh performs better than India, Pakistan and Bhutan. In Bangladesh, attention has to be given to increase the primary education completion rate.
Gender outcome: Bangladesh has achieved the target for gender parity in primary school enrolment. Since 1990, the primary school enrolment increased 1.6 times from 11.9 million in 1990 with 6.6 million boys and 5.4 million girls to 19.07 million in 2015, of whom 51 per cent are girls. However, this success masks the geographical disparities. The secondary education system in Bangladesh consists of two levels-secondary education (grades 6-10) and higher secondary education (grades 11-12). Since 1991, the secondary education enrolment for female students has increased significantly with girls' enrolment surpassing boys' in 2000 (52% for girls and 48% for boys); the parity still existed up to 2015. Women's participation in the decision making process has also marked significant improvement in the country. There had been a sharp increase in the number of women parliamentarians elected (20 per cent of total seats) in 2014.
In South Asia, Bangladesh along with Nepal and Bhutan has achieved gender parity both in primary and secondary education. Female education has been encouraged to empower women and to increase their involvement in the socio-economic activity through providing stipend to the female students at the secondary and higher secondary levels, providing financial support to purchase books and paying fees of the public examination under development projects. Though primary and secondary education is free for girls in the country, a huge dropout still exists, especially among girls at the higher secondary level. The challenge of completing the full cycle of primary and secondary education requires attention as it is reflected in the lower level of female enrolment at the higher secondary and tertiary levels.
Environmental outcome: At present there is only 13.20 per cent of land in Bangladesh having tree cover with density of 30 per cent and above and the area having tree cover is much lower than the target set for 2015. Since 1991, there has been a steady increase in CO2 emission in Bangladesh because of increasing development activities. In 2012, the emission was 0.32 tonne per capita. At present the proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected is 1.83 per cent which is much less than the target of 5.0 per cent.
Factors that contributed to achievements in MDGs in Bangladesh: The Human Development Report-2013 of the UNDP has placed Bangladesh among the 18 countries of the world that have made substantial progress in achieving MDGs. They have identified three notable drivers of development: a proactive development strategy, tapping of global markets and determined social policy and innovating low cost solutions in the health sector for diahhrial diseases. The following factors can be attributable for rapid reduction of poverty in Bangladesh.
Strong and supportive growth
Bangladesh has been able to maintain a steady growth rate over the last two decades with growth reaching above 7.0 per cent at present. The growth leveraged the reduction of poverty at a commendable rate. Sound macro-economic policies, open trade with global markets, and recognition and active management of the complementary roles of markets and state have contributed to attaining success in MDGs.
Investment in social infrastructure
The government's massive investment programme in family planning, immunisation, maternal health, water and sanitation, primary education, girl's education in the 90s and the successive periods paid the returns.
Political commitment
The political commitment to alleviation of poverty is reflected in the increased allocation of development budget. Around half the total development budget is somehow directly or indirectly linked to poverty reduction.
Expanding export-oriented sector
The rise of readymade garment industry taking advantage of cheap labour force particularly female labour was phenomenal. The readymade garment comprises 80 per cent of total export and added value of more than 60 per cent of total manufacturing. Other sectors including shrimp, leather, agro processing industry, plastic, pharmaceuticals, jute products are also contributing to export earning, and providing employment opportunities.
Women's participation in the labour force
Women constitute half the total population but their participation in the labour force is comparatively low in global perspective. Despite this fact, the participation of women is on the rise; 14 per cent in 1990-91 to 35.6 per cent in 2015-16. The involvement of women in economic activity is yielding benefit both directly and indirectly to the achievement of MDGs.
Engagement of Non-Government Organisations (NGOs)
It is no denying that NGOs are contributing to the improvement of social indicators. NGOs are also involved in social business. Apart from advancement of health, education, sanitation, NGOs are helping communities in building resilience.
Bangladesh towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Bangladesh owns SDGs in terms of political commitment from the apex level of the government for development transformation within the framework of SDGs doing implemented through our national planning tools (Five Year Plans). Bangladesh is an early starter in initiating SDG implementation adopting a whole society approach for its implementation involving government machinery, NGOs, INGOs, civil society, development partners, private sector and other relevant stakeholders.
Integration of SDGs into national plan: The formulation of the seventh five-year plan (2016-2020) coincides with the end year of MDGs and launch of the Post 2030 agenda. Therefore, in the preparation stage of the plan, the goals of SDGs were considered and included. In these sense, Bangladesh can be called the early starter in implementation of SDGs.
More generally, the agenda of 7thfive-year plan is compatible with global agenda in the sense that the plan underscores building on just and equitable society with inclusive growth while protecting the environment. The 7thfive-year plan is aimsed at attaining average 7.4 per cent growth per annum during the plan period compared to the growth target of SDGs for least developed countries to be above 7.0 per cent during the SDG period.
Implementation mechanism of SDGs: The present government in 2009 adapted 'vision 2021' to prepare the first long term plan, perspective plan, when they came to power after two years of caretaker government. Based on the long term plan, two medium-term plans were formulated. The 7thfive year plan was prepared in line with the global agenda 2030. Annual Development Programme (ADP), which is indeed articulation of the annual development budget is generally prepared on the basis of the five-year plan. In SDG implementation, the following measures have been undertaken demonstrating the government's strong commitment.
Mapping of key ministries for SDG implementation
The first and foremost thing to implement SDGs is to determine who will do what. In this respect, General Economics Division (GED) of Bangladesh Planning Commission figured out which ministry/division would be responsible for what role and responsibilities by exercising mapping of key lead/co-lead and associate positions of them. The mapping exercise helps ascertain the implementing agency to be linked with corresponding SDGs and targets as per the allocation of business of the government. This exercise is expected to produce synergetic effort through collaboration and cooperation among ministries/divisions/agencies in both the national and local context for successful implementation of SDGs.
Data gap analysis for SDG monitoring
One of the biggest challenges for monitoring the progress of SDGs is the insufficiency of data. For the performance assessment by SDG indicators, the GED conducted a review of the existing survey, census, national accounts and data generating system of statistical organisations. The output of this review is "Data Gap Analysis for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Bangladesh Perspective". The analysis reveals that for 70 indicators, data are readily available, for 108 indicators, data will be available from modification, aggregation and disaggregation. A survey will be required to generate data for the assessment of the remaining 63 indicators. This implies massive data generation effort has to be there, particularly to generate disaggregated data for some SDG indicators.
SDG Financing Strategy
The government has done an estimate to determine the financing needs for SDG implementation with a view to mobilising internal and external resources (first of such a study in the SDG world community). The study estimates that an additional amount, over the current provision of investment related to SDGs by public sectors and external sources, would be US$ 928.48 billion at 2015-16 constant prices. This amount would be required for SDG implementation over the period of FY 2017 to FY 2030, which is 19.75 per cent of the accumulated GDP. The annual average cost of SDGs would be US$ 66.32 billion (at constant prices) for the same period. It is estimated that 85 per cent of the additional resources has to come from domestic sources.
Web-based data repository system for result-based M&E
Bangladesh has designed an SDG Tracker, an innovative tool that will help measure achievements in attaining SDGs. Thus, the SDG tracker, a macro level data repository system, will provide status of Bangladesh's progress on SDGs over the period of time. The Access to Information (a2i) Programme of the Prime Minister's Office, with technical support from UNDP and USAID- in collaboration with General Economics Division (GED) of Planning Commission, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and other government and private stakeholders, designed and developed the SDG Tracker to create a data repository for monitoring implementation of the SDGs which will facilitate the tracking of progress against each goal and target.
National Action Plan to achieve SDGs
The 7th five-year plan is the vital instrument for implementing SDGs, in the first instance. In the light of it, the GED, Planning Commission, initiates undertaking the task of preparing "Action Plan of 7th FYP to Implement SDGs". The lead ministries prepared their own action plan to identify actions/activities and interventions that are deemed to be helpful in attaining SDGs' targets and 7th five year plan targets simultaneously. The GED in particular has facilitated the process by imparting training to around 400 officials of different lead ministries helping prepare the SDGs' action plan.
Inclusion of targets of SDGs in Annual Performance Agreement (APA)
As a part of the Performance Management System (PMS) in government organisations, APA was initiated by PMO to improve efficiency and transparency and accountability within the public sector to effectively render due services to the people. APA is a memorandum of understanding between the Cabinet Division as the first party and the other ministries as the second party aiming at introducing result-based activities rather than process-based one. Given the context, the government has instructed to integrate SDGs' targets into APA along with ministry's annual work plan.
Voluntary National Review (VNR) of SDGs
Bangladesh has participated in the Voluntary National Review (VNR) of SDGs in 2017, under the auspices of the High Level Political Forum (HLPF) of the UN. The focus of the report is where we are in implementing the Agenda 2030. This year seven goals -- Goal-1, Goal-2, Goal-3, Goal-5, Goal-9, Goal-14, and Goal-17 have been reviewed globally. Bangladesh has submitted VNR of SDGs along with 42 other countries. Through a consultative process the VNR was prepared and sent to the HLPF. On 17th July 2017, Planning Minister, Ministry of Planning-led delegation of Bangladesh presented the VNR to HLPF at the UNHQs, NY.
Challenges ahead for implementation of SDGs: Given the success in achieving most targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Bangladesh is well positioned to successfully implement, and progress on, the SDGs. However, some emerging challenges ahead still remain that need to be taken cognigance of.
Population momentum
Bangladesh population has been growing rapidly, from just over 108 million in 1990 to 160 million in 2016. Population has been projected to grow to over 200 million by 2050. A large population together with high population growth requires a faster growth of the agricultural production to ensure food security. The growth rate of the crop sector has been declining.The increase in agricultural production will inevitably put significant pressure on the environment.
Poverty and inequality
Despite progress in reducing poverty head count rates, around 39 million people still live in poverty and approximately 21 million live in extreme poverty ($1.90 a day). Some of the factors that correlate with poverty are limited access to financial resources, human resources and natural and health shocks. Income Gini Coefficient reflecting inequality is considered high (0.45)
Unplanned urbanisation
Bangladesh has been experiencing a rapid increase in the urban population, in 1990, 20 per cent of the population lived in urban areas, this increased to 35 per cent in 2016 and it is expected to overtake the share of rural population approximately in 2040. The rapid migration to urban areas and the inadequate infrastructure to meet the demand are serious problems for the country.
Natural disasters and climate change
Bangladesh experiences frequent natural disasters, these can lead to deaths, damage to the infrastructure and economic assets, and have a negative impact on the livelihood of people, particularly ones living in poverty. Bangladesh is considered one of the most climate vulnerable countries. Climate change will intensify the natural hazards the country already faces.
Resource Mobilisation
SDGs are all-encompassing requiring huge resources for implementation. Traditional sources of funding are insufficient to implement the SDGs. The government needs to find innovative ways of financing from both the public and private sectors, development partners and ensure effective and efficient ways for utilisation. Domestic resource mobilisation has to be enhanced to keep pace with the demand.
Stakeholders' engagement
SDG implementation requires a multi-stakeholder approach involving private sector, NGOs, CSOs, Media and Major Group of Other Stakeholders. Bangladesh has been working towards enhancing participation of all the stakeholders in its efforts to implement the SDGs and that need to be translated into action by all stakeholders.
Data availability and management
There are enormous challenges in collection, analysis, disaggregation, and dissemination of data. The government needs to build collaboration at bilateral, regional and global levels for capacity building and sharing of best practices.
Localisation of SDGs
Localisation of SDGs in line with domestic development plans using local governments and NGOs has come up as a big challenge. The government has been encouraging inclusive and enhanced stakeholders' participation for local level ownership of the SDGs. Localisation of SDGs require local government level planning and implementation. High altitude view on SDGs may not work much as the Agenda is very much action-oriented which needs participation of all segments and classes of population.
Upshots: Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in the areas of poverty alleviation, food security, primary school enrolment, gender parity in primary and secondary level education, lowering the infant and under-five mortality rates and maternal mortality ratio, improving immunisation coverage; and reducing the incidence of communicable diseases. Many factors are likely to determine the progress, including prudent macroeconomic policy, maintaining liberalised trade regime, increasing private sector participation, investment in social infrastructure, increased women participation in the labour force, and engagement of NGOs, among others. SDGs demand more concerted efforts with continuing strong political commitment. The 2030 Agenda comes at a time when Bangladesh has already started its journey towards achieving her cherished goal of becoming a developed country by 2041. The Government has adopted a visionary and inclusive approach to development so that the poorest and the most vulnerable of the country are integrated into its national development pursuit. Bangladesh is confident to set an example as a leading SDG achiever in the course of transformational development path to the cherished dream of attaining Sonar Bangla.
Dr Shamsul Alam is Member (Senior Secretary), General Economics Division (Government Focal Point for Poverty and SDGs), Bangladesh Planning Commission, Ministry of Planning.
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