Living in a Trump's world: Term of reference

The nature of the Trump phenomenon lies in its origin. It came like an unexpected storm. It was more than that. One could easily call the surprise victory of Donald J. Trump in the US presidential election of 2016, a gigantic cyclone or a titanic tsunami. The political pundits were outflanked. The seasoned analysts were beaten hollow. All informed ones predicted the Triump of his contestant former Secretary of State and former First Lady Hilary Clinton. Their predictions miserably failed.

Donald Trump scored his amazing victory: As a young Bangladeshi analyst writes: "During the election campaign not a single front line Republican leader stood by him; almost the whole media was against his candidacy. Nothing could dishearten him. He fought alone and won the election. What a gladiator he is!" (Faruque Hasan, Donald J. Trump, Pax Americana and Rest of the World, Dhaka, Bangla publication 2017, p-ix).

The lonesome gladiator seemed to know his way about. His simple slogan such as "America First" and "We will make America great again." Instantly appealed to the masses who looked for hope and way out of frustration of what appeared to them as stagnation. Trump straight away appealed to the rural heart of quiet America. His slogan of "America First": struck a responsive cord in the non college Blue collar unemployed or partially employed youth in the mid Western and Southern States. In the end the strategy worked as Trump bagged States with greater representative number in the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton appealed to the middle classes which did win her three million more popular votes. It however, failed to deliver the goods in terms of votes in the Electoral College. On the other hand, the very promises that Trump made to his voters during his election campaign captivated him in reverse gear in the context of the world at large. His Manifesto had the imprint of one suitable for US in the pre-second Great War World. Thus, he started his combat against multilateralism in trade, matters of collective security and defense and global environmental concerns. In this process he has virtually got the USA out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He also showed his lukewarm, almost negative interest in the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) leaving the European Union to fend for its own collective security without much hope of American protection. Trump also bade goodbye to the global agreement on Climate change reached in Paris. Carrying his Islamophobic agenda in practice he passed executive orders banning immigration from six Muslim majority countries. This attempt was however, halted for the time being by active opposition from the higher courts.

Himself the grandson of an immigrant, Trump has taken a firm stand against immigration especially illegal immigration. In this he does not restrict his intended ban to Muslims alone. The Hispanics who had been walking regularly into the US through Mexico caught Trump's enraged attention. He proposed to build a 12 billion dollar wall on the US-Mexico border to stop mass immigration from the Latin American country. Reality may have made him seek modifications and reduction of the wall but he remains loyal to the idea.

On international trade Trump has resolutely struck to the slogan - "America First". By demanding that the multilateral trade and commercial arrangements adverse to the USA must be rectified to do 'Justice' to American interest. On bilateral business dealings also his avowed prime concern is the interest of the USA. He started even in his campaign trail with criticism of China as currency manipulator and operator against American interest.

In all these matters as in his dealings with oil rich Middle Eastern, especially Arab states he has so far successfully operated as a shrewd businessman. Thus, he has been able to sale billions of dollars worth of US arms to confronting sides, such as Saudi Arabia and its allies and Qatar.

During his November, 2017 Asia-Pacific visit, he struck a more conciliatory note in his narrative of Sino-US trade. He continued to insist that it was heavily loaded against US interest. But he did not blame China for it. China has taken advantage as any country would do to benefit its own people.

All this may make one reconsider the terms of living in a Trump's world. There is something to support saying that despite sharp criticisms of and enraged demonstration against him; it is still Trump's America. His actions within the US, however, mad or unsystematic as they may seem to be are having some positive impact. Thus, the US stock exchange is behaving with positive strength, employment and growth rate are on the rise. Can one then say, if these trends are not temporary, there is a method in apparent madness of the lone ranger President?

What then is the situation of the world at large? Are we compelled to live in a Trump's world under the terms prescribed by him and his 'isolationist' policies. After nearly a year of the Trump administration and his maverick doings, is it not realistic to ask whether the world has Trump's, rather than Trump having the World? It is true that no American with such unpredictability has ever before become the President and Chief Executive of the mightiest nation of the World, the USA. The uncertainty that such a leadership as that of Donald Trump may cause the USA and through it, the World, can be quite terrifying. As it is, the World of our times is in flux. Ideologies and civilisations seem to be on the brink of gigantic clashes and conflicts. Violent extremism manifest in such movement as Al-Qaeda, Taliban and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (now almost defunct) on one hand and aggressive extremist movement like Hindutta in India and violent extremist Buddhism in Myanmar and other countries have caused ceaseless armed violence in hitherto stable and peaceful states on the other. Among these are Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. In these regions interventionist war imposed by Western powers opened the 'Gates of hell'. The consequent destabilisation of the societies led to the displacement of millions of people. They were compelled to became refugees and seek asylum in Western lands especially European ones.

Will the undeniable reality make those leaders of the West who like Trump inclined to veer to the right extreme will convince them that such a posture will harm their own societies beyond measure?

For the present it seems that a vicious circle is in vigorous operation. Western invasions and attacks destroy and almost disintegrate eastern especially Muslim societies sending numerous refugees to the safe and peaceful European states. This process throws the stable western countries off balance and the ultra rightist tend to rise in strength. Thus, Austria, Germany and France already have large segments of their frightened citizens support racist xenophobic and extremist ultra right. The undesirable political process intensifies extremism on the other side and the world is caught in a vicious cycle. Question may be asked whether Donald Trump and his supporters are not the product of this vicious development. If it is so, then it will not be Donald Trump but the wayward world itself that has to be fixed.

There are some signs that the unbalanced world is, in a manner of speaking, forcing some measure of balance on an unpredictable Trump.

Take the case of North Korea. That closed society with its own unpredictable and dictatorial leader has nuclearised itself. It is terrorising the world with threats of attacking the US and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region, if it is itself attacked by the US. North Korea's charged verbal reaction came as President Trump threatend it with fire and fury. It seemed as if the 3rd World War was about to begin with a nuclear war between the US and North Korea. A 'trigger-happy' Trump was on the verge of eschewing talks and diplomacy and invading North Korea with inevitable nuclear consequences. Something however, made him tone down his open hostility and threats. It is being claimed that it was the persuasion of a Third World tycoon former arms dealer Moosa-bin-Shamsher, (now resident in Bangladesh) which helped stop the 3rd World War. He claims to have informed President Trump through Paul Manafort of the tremendous destructive nuclear power of North Korea. This he claims, made President Trump change his posture of confrontation and opt for pacific measures including pressures by North Korea's traditional ally China and direct-indirect negotiation. Proinsias Mac Pheadair, A local 'tycoon' may have prevented North Korean nuclear attack, Holiday, Dhaka 10th November, 2017, p-1. Whether this claim is true or not something in the world of our times has made Donald Trump to take the Peaceful way out in this matter.

He is also on the war path with Iran on the issue of its nuclear programme despite its agreement with the USA and other powers. Trump calls the agreement unfair and threatened to punish Iran for its "violation". In this case also one sees that the conditions existent may finally make Trump seek the peaceful way out.

It is perhaps not unrealistic to think that realities would soon put reins on Trump's waywardness. Within the United States he is still largely a captive of the system of politico-constitutional check and balance. He has learnt that he cannot do what he did with his business corporation. The world at large seemingly may be less stable than the US. But it also has its own invisible checks and balance system. President Donald Trump would do better to grasp this reality sooner rather than later.

Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley, founder Chairman of the Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB), and Editor of the quarterly "Asian Affairs," was a former teacher of political science at Dhaka University(1964-1967) and former member of the erstwhile Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP) (1967-1980) and former non-partisan technocrat Cabinet Minister of Bangladesh (1990). [email protected]