After witnessing a declining trend in the last two consecutive years, the country is expecting a bumper Boro output this season, following high prices of the staple that encouraged farmers to cultivate it on a large scale.
Consumers, however, could get little benefit from such profuse production, if the government fails to combat the nexus of unscrupulous millers and importers, responsible for market manipulation, said experts.
They also feared that such robust harvest might not have any positive impact on rice prices up to the expected level amid a significant hike in production cost this year.
The acreage of Boro increased to 4.84 million hectares in the current financial year (FY), 2017-18, from 4.4 million hectares in FY 17. That raises the government's hopes to expect a record output of 19.5 million tonnes of rice, said Director General of the Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) Mohammad Mohsin.
He said the high prices of rice encouraged the farmers to cultivate Boro in larger areas of land this year.
A flash-flood in the country's haor areas damaged standing crops seriously in the FY 17, and Boro production dropped to an eight-year-low at 18.1 million tonnes.
As a result, the prices of rice increased sharply, he added.
According to Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), the rice prices hit an all-time high at Tk 55 (coarse varieties) to Tk 80 (finer varieties) per kg in the September-October period of 2017 from Tk 34-57 per kg in January.
However, the prices have declined to some extent, as coarse rice was sold at Tk 46-48 a kg, and finer rice at Tk 62-72 a kg in the city on Friday.
The country posted the highest rice yield of 34.7 million tonnes in the FY 15, in which Boro contributed a record amount of 19.1 million tonnes.
The record domestic output along with imports led to a fall in rice prices that year, which discouraged many farmers to grow the staple in the FY 16.
As a result, Boro output fell to 18.9 million tonnes in the FY 16, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) director (research) Dr Khandoker Golam Moazzem told the FE that the record production would not be enough to minimise rice prices this year following a notable surge in production cost and a rising price trend in the global market.
He said the government estimated 9-10 per cent rise in Boro output costs this season. But field reports from districts are showing 15-20 per cent hike.
The government has set the minimum rice price at Tk 38 a kg under its procurement drive, whereas the coarse variety of rice is selling at Tk 38-42 a kg in the mill areas.
He further said farmers generally produce medium and finer varieties of rice like Brridhan-28, 29 and Jeerashail in the Boro season. So, a shortage of coarse varieties of rice like Swarna might persist until the beginning of the Aman harvest season in November-December.
Besides, the rice market might be dependent on foreign markets when the import is costlier.
According to the Ministry of Food, rice import costs surged to US$ 415-427 a tonne in March-April from $380-410 a tonne in February-March.
The rice import hit an all-time high of 3.6 million tonnes so far in the current FY.
Agri-economist Golam Hafiz Kennedy said the government would have to ensure strict market monitoring to combat any manipulation by any syndicate of millers and importers.
The commoners will get no benefit of the robust Boro output, if the government fails to tackle the nexus of big fishes, he noted. The harvest of Boro has started in haor, beel and other low-lying areas in the first week of this month.
DAE Director General Mohammad Mohsin said the farmers cultivated rice on 0.32 million hectares in haor areas under six districts of Mymensingh, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions in the current season.
He said 40 per cent of harvest has been completed, and the farmers are getting a yield of more than 4.0 tonnes from each hectare of land as per the field reports.
Boro harvest will start in full swing across the country from mid-May and will continue until July.
More than 90 per cent of crops were damaged totally in the haor areas last year in a flash-flood that also affected overall rice production in the country.
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