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Eleventh Parliamentary Election 2018

AL-led grand alliance may win 248 seats, says survey

December 27, 2018 12:00:00


The Awami League-led Grand Alliance may win 248 seats in the 11th national parliamentary election, according to a survey, reports bdnews24.com.

Its rival, the Jatiya Oikya Front, is likely to win 49 seats, while three may go to independent candidates.

An organisation, known as the Research and Development Center, conducted the survey between December 9 and 16.

Forrest E Cookson, an American consultant, presented the findings at a news conference at the Westin Hotel in Dhaka on Wednesday.

"I am a researcher," he said. "But I have worked as a consultant on many surveys," he said.

"I have also served as a consultant on many projects by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics."

Cookson said he worked with various research and survey organisations in Bangladesh.

The survey was conducted on Bangladeshi voters participating in the 2018 parliamentary election.

The sample size of the survey was 2,249 and the respondents were drawn from towns and cities in 51 parliamentary seats, Cookson said.

According to the survey, 60 per cent of respondents plan to vote for the Grand Alliance, 22 per cent for the Oikya Front and 4 per cent for the Jatiya Party. But 10 per cent of the respondents were unsure about who to vote for, while 3.4 per cent refused to answer.

The result was finalised using a mode based on past voting records for each constituency and a total nationwide vote as forecast from the national survey, he said.

Cookson said the report accounts for changes to constituencies in the past 27 years and that a previous version of the model had predicted the results of the 2001 and 2008 polls correctly.


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