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Signs of the new world order

Mahmudur Rahman | November 13, 2019 00:00:00


Illustration: https://www.zerohedge.com

The expansion of the G7 to G20 was one of the first visible changes to the new world order that few have spoken about and many have thought about. Jeremy Corbin has, so far been the only world leader to publicly pronounce and castigate the move. The unwritten order was based around the United Nations following the Second World War with the severe controls on any nuclear ambitions of Germany and Japan. Germany, divided into two parts that was never destined to last apart was thus neutralised. Japan was a heap of ruins that no one expected to rise and become the economic power that it has become.

Enter Donald Trump and his 'America First' doctrine and the change became obvious. The United States was being propelled in the direction of a type of self-sufficiency that would re-position it as the richest nation in the world beyond what it was and prevent any chances of the rest of the world catching up, including China that currently holds the largest chunk of US dollars outside of the United States. The complex effect on the rest of the world was what concerned Mr. Corbyn around whom lie the somewhat sinister allegations of far left politics. His position was never articulated well enough though there are opinions in the United Kingdom that he is a sort of communist plant.

Since then through a muddle of blow hot-blow-cold decisions that has seen a procession of key bureaucrats and political appointees to the White House depart, Mr. Trump after toying with armed conflict has finally decided to withdraw from 'unnecessary wars' and put his focus on a tariff war that threatens to destabilise all the gains of the world order. Add the additional crunch of sanctions and it goes in someway towards undoing what he sought to achieve in the first place. His decision to finally part company with Shale oil, America's most jealously guarded horde in order to reduce the power of the Middle Eastern led oil power actually weakens his position. His sanctions against a number of countries including Iran and Russia will only spur them on towards greater self reliance.

One of the two reasons for the Second World War was economic and it is an irony that Japan today ranks as the world's third largest economy and China the second. By now China has set its imprint on most of the world and created a burgeoning internal economy that can, with the appropriate stimulus withstand the crushing tariffs that the United States has imposed. The trade talks between the two seem have broken down in sight of a resolution so many times that it appears to be diversionary in tactics and resolve.

Mr. Trump's administration now is inclined to withdraw from international treaties that it signed up to including the Climate Change protocol that he doesn't believe is a threat at all. That has happened much to the concern of his European Allies that can actually see what is happening to the Arctic glaciers on the back of countless scientific research and documentation. The newest target is the World Trade Organisation that rings warning bells for the developing nations such as Bangladesh that are struggling with their own political imbroglios in order to keep pace with self sufficiency, technology and science that will inevitably shape the world's functioning sooner than later. Yet it was the WTO that enabled America to penetrate the largely profitable but closed economies of India and China with their huge, quickly empowered and able middle class. This and the need to keep prices of essentials and most other products stable and cheap in the US itself. That this view isn't shared by the US Allies speaks for itself their continuing belief and trust in the WTO especially, by a strange quirk of fate, the United Kingdom as it strives to extricate itself from the knot its politicians have tied her in.

The very EU that the UK seeks to exit is an organisation that many countries aspire to even with its now less disguised ambitions of a European entity with its own army. That is the fantasy of Angela Merkel to skirt its nuclear ban and Emmanuel Macron to prop up a tottering economy. Until now Europe has the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) as its Armed body set up to combat the threat of the then Soviet Union and now a less potent Russia. That theory is developing leaks both in terms of membership and intent. For all the threats fumed by Mr. Trump Germany is proceeding with laying of a pipeline through which it will import much needed gas from Russia. On the other hand Turkey, that has its ambitions of joining the EU has already proven to be an embarrassment for NATO embroiling itself in the conflict in Syria. The US and Russia have already rendered the country as one with but a semblance of sovereignty deploying its armed forces with impunity. The day after the US decided to pull out of Syria Mr. Erdogan sent in his troops to create along its border with Syria a buffer zone to replace the displaced Syrian refugees crowding in to his country. In the process Islamic State prisoners have found the means to escape and no doubt regroup, lick its wounds and decide on newer tactics. This leaves NATO in a flux with reports of Turkish forces having fired on the Americans, no doubt using similar armaments, and forcing the Russian troops to play a more forceful role in ensuring Turkey's ambitions remain confined to the buffer zone.

Armed conflicts never resolved any issues and it is doubtful whether Turkey's forays in to Syria will solve anything. Mr. Erdogan believes otherwise and NATO must think anew as will the EU of further expansion and indeed, whether the United Europe concept will play out. By sheer dint of population and ambitions of their place in the world India, that seeks a seat at the UN Security Council and China are forces to be contended with even as the new order of a far right nationalistic world returns with its nefarious claws.

mahmudrahman@gmail.com


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