This is the reality Bangladesh is presently faced with as regards its demographic scenario, commonly believed to offer enormous opportunity for the present as well as the future. The fact, however, is that the opportunity to seize the benefits of demographic advantage will last for another 14-15 years as there will be an acceleration in the numbers of elderly people (60 years and above) after 2031. This thought-provoking revelation was made in a report jointly prepared by the Planning Commission and the United Nations Population Fund titled Demographic Impact Study. Based on its findings and analysis, the report suggests that the period until 2031 represents the optimum time for investing in human resources in Bangladesh and establishing enabling conditions for economic growth in the country.
Demographic dividend typically refers to economic growth potential in a country resulting from shifts in the age structure of its population. This is more precisely spelt out by identifying the age group of the population between 15 and 59 as the key source of deriving benefits. That is to say, a country is in a position to gain demographic dividend when the share of its population of the aforementioned age group is high.
The report, no doubt a very useful one, notes with caution that if things are not in place to make the most of the demographic dividend during the period, the country will 'grow old before it grows rich'. The report mentions, "Taking advantage of the demographic dividend is an urgent imperative for Bangladesh. The dividend is not automatic; it is achieved only if the appropriate policies and development strategies are pursued."
The most dramatic change to be expected in future is the increase in the elderly population, defined conventionally from the age of 60 and over. The report says that the number of the elderly would increase five fold, from 11.2 million in 2011 to 55.7 million in 2061. According to this projection, country's population may reach 265 million by then from 156 million now. This goes to show that the population of working age group will grow at a much slower rate than the elderly population in future.
Given the scenario, steps taken by the country to capitalise on the prevailing -- but gradually shrinking-- demographic dividend will be crucial in determining its future course. What the report has suggested is inevitable. It says that the period during which the proportion of the working-age population will increase relative to other age groups, provides a one-time "window of opportunity" for investing heavily in human resource development. But after 2031 as the population ages further, the "window" will gradually close and the demographic dividend will no longer be available.
Now, how best to do this? The answer is obvious enough as anybody faced with the question will point to increased focus on human resource development which understandably should be multi-pronged. While educating the younger population beyond the secondary schooling may look like an immediate objective, much of the attention of the government has to be on how it plans to develop its young minds in order that they contribute meaningfully for their own wellbeing that eventually translates into collective national progress.
Realising the objective is highly policy-dependent. Hence there is the critical need to direct government planning to meet the requirements of generating large pools of skilled human resource that should be equipped to cater to the needs of a diverse array of productive activities. In an age when technology is sweeping across geographic boundaries, it is highly important that national policies are suitably framed so that what the youths in the intervening period of, say, little over two decades are provided with, is sustained in the years to come in a systematic and continuous process.
Since the policy has to be multi-pronged, it should target besides job creation, identification of areas where increased focus will fetch returns for a longer term. Some of these areas demanding greater attention should broadly include infrastructure, technical and vocational education, agriculture, technology up-gradation in manufacturing etc. In this context it must be noted that while putting emphasis on education, the state policy has to ensure the quality of education rendered, and learning aspirations should match well with productive use in real life. Adjusting the education system to market demands in various sectors of the economy is a sure and proven means of empowering youths with the right resources they need.
The writer is Editorial Consultant of
The Financial Express.
wasiahmed.bd@gmail.com