There was a false alarm of cold waves. Even the Bangladesh Meteorological Department was misled to issue forecasts that moderate to severe cold waves were likely to sweep across the northern region of the country in the middle and at the end of the month. Other parts of the country were not supposed to shiver like the north but still feel the wintry bite hard enough. Mercury was predicted to drop below 10 degree Celsius in the north in spells.
Now the Met office has revised its forecasts. These forecasts now synchronise with the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum's (SASCOF's) more comprehensive picture of weather likely to prevail in the entire South Asian region. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and the Maldives are likely to experience the wintry chill at the current level. It means the winter will be no colder than it is now. To put it in climate perspective prevailing in the region, this winter too will be yet another warm winter.
The news is likely to come as a great relief to people living in the northern districts but climate scientists read in it the signs of trouble for the country during summer. Before the spectre of punishing temperature unfolds in the summer it is better to have an idea of the phenomenon that has been responsible for the sudden about-turn by the weather now and the predicted prevalence of high temperature throughout the summer months.
It is the El Nino that has reversed the course of seasonal cold waves. With the Cyclone Michaung striking Andhra coasts, humidity accumulated in the Bay of Bengal found its way well beyond Andhra Pradesh. Originating in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, it causes surface waters to become warmer and under its influence the sub-continent becomes drier with sparse rains. This time Michaung had left the sky overcast with cloud and vapour which descended for days in the form of thick fogs. El Niono's influence repulsed the flow of chilly wind coming from as far as Siberia. The result is less cold this year than other years. Last year also the EL Nino played its part in weakening winter. But this time its impacts, according to climate experts, are likely to be quite lasting and also highly pervasive.
El Nino may have spared people of the north the suffering from extreme cold but in the long term, the nation may have to pay an unprecedentedly heavy price. As the SASCOF points out, power consumption may go up abnormally, more water may be required for irrigation and various diseases may see their outbreaks in a warmer environment.
This is no good news for Bangladesh. The warmer the weather the greater the suffering of people, particularly of farmers and day labourers who have to toil in the open under the scorching sun. What is more is that heat waves lead to scarcity of water including the potable. This is a prime cause for outbreak of diseases. Irrigation is hampered or made costlier for cultivation of crops.
That the country like the rest of the globe is growing hotter is certain. Now the El Nino – Little Boy in Spanish – may make its presence known in every two to seven years on an average but yet it does not occur on a regular basis. Usually it lasts for nine to 12 months but on occasions may even last for years together. This particular El Nino is likely to prevail until March-April of the next year. That means a drier summer, spelling adverse impacts on agriculture, human health, ecosystems and by extension on economies in this part of the world.
So, there is a need to get prepared for mitigating the negative impacts of this hostile climate phenomenon. In-depth and collaborative climate research by scientists of this region can be of help in fighting the adversarial impacts.
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com