Can Bangladesh achieve SDGs by 2030?

On the other side of unremitting inflation, a product of no-holds-barred free market economy, is decline in purchasing power of people ---only more so of the low- and fixed-income groups. If shrinking purchasing power is not compensated by corresponding rise in income, the inevitable consequence is deepening poverty. At a time Bangladesh economy was about to witness a turnaround early in the post-Covid-19 period, the Russo-Ukraine war not only halted the process but also threw the prospect of an economic recovery into uncertainty. The main culprit was the sudden price hike of fuel oils for which Bangladesh has to overwhelmingly depend on import. The wind taken out of its sails, the country, like many others with little or no domestic energy sources, discovered itself in a critical situation. Under a system of kleptocracy of the lumpen moneyed and business class unduly served by their bureaucratic cohorts, outrageously unequal wealth distribution only pushed more people to get marginalised.

So when a public meeting held under the title "Eliminating Poverty and Inequality and Strengthening Social Security" on Saturday last comes up with the disclosure that poverty rate in the country has gone up to 20.5 per cent from 18.7 per cent over the past two years, there is nothing to be surprised. Add to this, the urban poverty that saw a rise from 14.7 per cent to 20.5 per cent. Read between the lines, this indicates that urban employment and income have either shrunk or remained static for the low-income people who can barely save for the rainy days. Even if income does not fall, families can suffer income erosion when prices of essentials skyrocket. This has been happening for the past two years or so and there is no sign yet market volatility will ease soon.

There are two aspects of this reverse journey on the road to economic progress for a significant portion of the population. One is the financial vulnerability of this segment of population to unrelenting inflation often driven by intriguing market players; the other is either such people's failure to raise their income from self-employment or from employers who employ them for a pittance. Exploitation of both opportunities and labour explains the atrocious inequality. Otherwise, the national wealth generated annually should not have widened the economic disparities so grossly. Bhutan is a good example of smaller GDP which has been judiciously used, particularly in ensuring rational distribution of its wealth, for alleviation of its poverty. When businesspeople can make rampant profit and the unduly privileged close to the kleptocratic circle can loot and launder billions of Taka, it tells a different story of deprivation on the one hand, and filthy affluence on the other.

Now the deliberation of the Saturday's public meeting aired concern about Bangladesh's attainment of the much hyped Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. It is a genuine concern, no doubt but if the macroeconomic health and wealth creation are taken into account, the country should not miss the target. But if the microeconomic situation in relation to rising poverty comes into consideration, the path may be tortuous but the goals not quite unachievable. The key issue here is economic reform with special emphasis on ensuring greater share of created national wealth for the marginalised in order to ameliorate the lot of the poor during the next six years.