Under the supervision of eminent economist Dr Mahabub Hossain, households in 62 villages, randomly selected, were surveyed four times (1988, 2000, 2008 and 2014). It helped generate longitudinal panel data at household level to serve as the most credible and confident source of statistics. While the surveys covered, on an average, roughly 2,000 households, the 2014 Census covered 21,000 households - about three times more than that covered by the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). Thus the 2014 data base, generated by BRAC, could be construed as the most recent representation of national situation on any rural indicator.
Obviously, in a country with scarce land base and overpopulation, the pattern of the use of land assumes immense interest, especially on the heels of cultivated land decline by 0.31 to 1.0 per cent per year. Let's take up seasonal use of land first. A glean at data set shows that only one-fifths of the land is now being used in Aus season (Kharif-1), compared to more than half of the land used in 1988. More specifically, about one-thirds of the cultivated land was devoted to Aus paddy three decades back; now only 5.0 per cent of the area cover Aus paddy. Likewise, two-thirds of land is being used in Aman season (Kharif-2) as against four-fifths in 1988. It appears that both seasons witnessed a substantial wane in land use by households during the comparable periods.
It should be noted here that land under Aus has risen marginally over the last decade after a sharp fall between 1988 and 2000. This could be due to resurgence of interest following new high-yielding varieties as well as campaign by the government and NGOs. However, possibly to compensate for the loss of land in two seasons, land under cultivation in Boro season went up from a little over half to about 90 per cent during the period under review. Specifically, cultivated land under paddy in this season went up from one-fifths to one-half. There has been another development over time. Maize crop now accounts for 7.0 per cent of cultivated land in Boro season - a crop that was unknown to farmers even in 2000. Secondly, out of the land owned by rural households, the homestead size has squeezed over time while land under garden and pond increased indicating growing land use for vegetables, horticulture crops and fish. Thirdly, only one-thirds of the cultivated land had access to irrigation in 1988; it rose to more than four-fifths by 2014. It was shallow tube wells (STWs) - the leader of the 'lead input' called irrigation - that stole the march by tripling area under irrigation from only 16 per cent to about 60 per cent in 2014. Indigenous method once covered one-tenths of irrigated land; it is now only 2.0 per cent due to drying up of rivers and canals.
The 2014 census reinforces the argument that tenancy market in rural Bangladesh has grown thicker with land under tenancy growing from one-fourths of cultivated land to almost half of cultivated land between 1988 and 2014. Of the rented lands, about three-fourths were under sharecropping system in 1988 - dubbed as exploitative and inefficient - and that share fell to less than half in 2014. Quite surprisingly, rented land under fixed-rent/mortgage system now accounts for about 60 per cent of rented land (fixed rent 38 and mortgage 20) as against about 30 per cent in 1988. This shows that tenancy market in rural Bangladesh has moved towards market-determined arrangements; farmers have shifted from risk sharing (sharecropping) to risk taking (fixed-rent) arrangements. This is an indicator of resilience of farm households.
There is another change. The share of pure tenants and tenant owners - having no cultivated land and mostly having rented land respectively - increased from one-fifths to one-thirds over the same period of time. Especially the share of pure tenants doubled during the comparable periods from one-tenths to about one-fifths. All of these developments - increased tenancy and shifting arrangements - are the results of (a) shortage of agricultural labour and rising wages; (b) increased costs of monitoring and supervision, and (c) the exit of large and medium households towards more remunerative non-agricultural pursuits.
The most important observation to draw policy-level attention is the fact that despite modern technology, roughly 40 per cent of the cultivated land continues to be single cropped. Quite expectedly, it is the large and medium farms which have more single-cropped land than small farms, and areas with rain-fed and surface water agriculture have more of this than areas with ground water irrigation. And finally, low land and very low-lying areas have most of the single cropped lands (low about 50 per cent, very low about 80 per cent). We need to think seriously how to convert those areas into multi-cropped lands to avert food crisis. A mapping is necessary to locate specific areas for technological interventions.
Contrary to the popular perceptions, the data base shows that the yield rate in terms of paddy has monotonically risen over time. The yield of Boro is estimated to be about 6.0 tons/ha - about twice the yield of 2000, and yield of MV Aman has increased from 3.3 to 3.8 tons/ha over the same period of time. Similar is the case with Aus yield. Interestingly, yield of maize - an unknown crop even a decade back - shot up from barely 1.0 ton/ha to about 8.0 tons/ha that could be reasoned as contributing to increased area under maize by pushing down wheat and other crops.
Which varieties of rice are grown in fields? In the Boro season, Bridhan 28 and 29 are reported to capture almost 60 per cent of the sown areas as compared with 20 per cent in 2000. Hybrid variety was almost non-existent in 2000 but it rose in about one-fifths of the area in 2014. In the Aman season, Swarna variety occupies about 30 per cent of sown area compared to 13 per cent in 2000. Interestingly, BR11 topped the list in 2000 Aman season capturing about 25 per cent of area but fell to only 6.0 per cent in 2014. Two important observations are worth noting as far as choice of variety is concerned. First, a total of 16 varieties of rice in Aus and Aman and 11 varieties in Boro season are grown in Bangladesh reflecting crop diversity and thus averting a fall in yield rate. Second, farmers tend to shift to newer varieties taking into consideration many attributes.
Although yield consideration comes first, period of maturity, market demand, etc. are also determinant factors for choice. For example, Bridhan 28 with relatively low yield is preferred to Bridhan 29 because of the former's slight edge in maturity and taste. Thirdly, the marginal rise in Aus area as mentioned before could be adduced to the advent of modern aus variety and increased yield. Especially AC-1 and AC-2 provide more than 5.0 tons/ha and IR 50 and Chandina provide about 4.0 tons/ha. Finally, the policy implication is that since the future of sustainable foodgrain production in Bangladesh depends largely on rice grown in these two low-yield and high-risk seasons, serious efforts should be made in technological innovations through research and extension. The shift should be from Boro to Aus and Aman that need less ground water and fertilisers.
The writer is Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University.
 abdulbayes@yahoo.com
Changing land use in rural areas
Abdul Bayes | Published: August 18, 2015 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00
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