As the country rejoices the end of an era of managed elections and ever-increasing economic cronyism and autocratic rule, the reports are still coming in on the hefty price people have paid in blood and the fallout of political turmoil that lasted more than a month. The new interim government is beset with problems left behind by the past regime in terms of ruinous policies that have left little money in State coffers to meet billions of dollars in commitments to foreign lenders. The assessment by international rating agency Fitch paints a cautious picture about Bangladesh and suggests how the country may navigate multiple perils if it wishes to maintain stability. It is obvious that the first order of business is to avoid political chaos, which is far from settled. There have been war horns blowing from across the border by representatives of the immediate past government and although that has not materialised with boots on the ground, there should be no doubt about recent events in a certain district of the country where supporters of the past regime fought pitched battles with the army. This is but one indication of how things could topsy-turvy unless handled with utmost care.
Students and civil-military relations need to be maintained, for the protests that started peacefully in July ended in violence with much loss of life and the movement had morphed into a greater struggle involving various elements of society and political forces. As in the aftermath of every such movement that casts aside an entrenched regime, people are impatient for change. However, before a timeline for national elections may be declared, essential reforms need to be initiated to ensure that State power does not become hostage to any single political entity in the future, otherwise all this struggle and blood will have been for nothing. Getting back to the ratings, it has been stated that the formation of the interim government has eased immediate political instability. The principal export sector of Bangladesh is readymade apparels. With foreign missions continuing to warn its citizens with advisories warning them not to travel to Bangladesh due to "political instability", trade has become both complicated and expensive as RMG owners must go to buyers and not the other way round.
Moving beyond exports, there has been much confusion with reliability of data furnished by various ministries, statistics and research organisations. The financial advisor has assured that these will not happen again, but the fact is that reform takes time. The weakening of Bangladesh's rating to 'BB-', reflects the mood about the country's ability to weather external shocks. This is a major challenge. It is imperative that the interim government holds talks with major political parties and the students' movement to buy time for the necessary reforms that must be made in the economic sector that include realistic planning, resource mobilisation and appropriate budgeting. Without that understanding, political stability will not be ensured.
Patience is one thing that is running thin and for good reason. Sustained double-digit inflation has sapped consumers' confidence, runaway energy costs have humbled industry, endless corruption has sunk the country in terms of cost of doing business and the much touted 'economic development' is marked by a jobless-growth scenario -- all these have to be dealt with, but cannot be done in a short span of time by any government. That is why it is necessary to formulate a roadmap that will ease the economic haemorrhaging and lessen societal (and political) tensions and give the interim government the space to do what needs to be done.
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